Saturday, April 2, 2016

Why You Should Care About the Wisconsin Primary

As you may or may not know, the Wisconsin primary is approaching fast. There's been quite some buzz about Wisconsin but why, exactly, is it important?


The Democratic race is an exceedingly close one, with Sanders having a 5 point edge or so. Will this be the deciding factor? No. Sanders should have the edge here, but considering the nature of the race, for him to stay on pace he might have to get about 65% of the vote, which is very, very unlikely. That being said, if Hillary wins, Sanders may have no justification to stay in the race as states like New York and Maryland draw closer.


This is where it's really important. The "Stop Trump" movement is hedging it's bets on Wisconsin, and for now it appears Cruz will likely win. Because of the nature of the delegate allocation, however, this is a very important race for the Stop Trump movement to do well in. The winner of the state will receive 18 delegates, and the winner of each Congressional District will receive 3. Luckily for Cruz and Kasich, their support is very divided. Upstate Wisconsin is a strong base for Cruz, while Milwaukee and its suburbs like Kasich. Because of this, Trump could get 35% of the vote, but win just one or two CDs, and come out with a low amount of delegates. If Trump gets no delegates, which would be unlikely but not impossible, it will become increasingly likely he will not be able to reach a first-ballot majority.

No comments:

Post a Comment