Monday, April 18, 2016

Why You Should Care About the New York Primary

Tomorrow, the New York primary approaches. It's probably been the most-polled, most-covered primary since South Carolina. With the two frontrunners very likely getting huge wins, the question is: Why?


The delegate allocation is straightforward in that it's exactly the same as all Democratic delegate allocation: Basically proportional. With it looking like Hillary will earn a ~15 point win, that translates into about 50 extra delegates. As you can imagine, that's not a great position to be in for the already trailing Sanders campaign. This primary will probably spell the end, unless they can pull off a Michigan-style upset.


The delegate allocation here is less simple. There are 14 statewide delegates, and Trump seems poised to hit 50% and win all of them. The other 81 delegates are awarded to the winners of each congressional district. If someone clears 50%, they'll receive all 3. If nobody does, the top two finishers split it 2-1. There is a possibility for Cruz and Kasich to pick up some of these delegates in low-Republican congressional districts in New York City. If Trump falls below 50%, however, this will look a little different, and Kasich and Cruz will get both proportional statewide delegates and, potentially, a couple of extra CD delegates.

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