Why You Should Care About the Delaware and Rhode Island Primaries

These states may not be close together, but they're both tiny and the primaries are today, so I'm going to combine them.

Delaware

DEMOCRATS
Hillary should easily win here. Bernie could try to keep the margin in low single digits, and it's likely to be closer than Maryland, but there's no real competition here. There hasn't been a ton of polling, but it all points to Clinton +13 or so

REPUBLICANS
The state is winner-take-all and without a doubt Trump will win. He's been seen nearing 60% in polls, and if it were even 20 points closer than that, it wouldn't matter since it's winner-take-all.

Rhode Island

DEMOCRATS
This state is nearly a tossup. A recent PPP poll shows Sanders leading by 4, but since it's the only reliable poll, there's a chance it could be wrong. This state is certainly Sanders' best chance for a win, but there's a chance he may even lose here.

REPUBLICANS
Because of the nature of the delegate allocation here, Trump will certainly lose a few delegates. While I maintain Trump may hit 60%, it will not be easy for him. 

If we say the following vote percentages occur:
Trump 60%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 12%

Then at-large, Trump gets 8 delegates, Kasich receives 3/4, and Cruz gets 1/2.

For each of the two congressional districts, the top three finishers receive 1 delegate each unless

a) someone hits 67%
b) less than three people get 10%

While there is a chance for either of those to occur, let's assume the two congressional districts are similar and they each get one. Then, the final outlook will be:

Trump 10
Kasich 6
Cruz 3

Cruz gets 16% of delegates with 12% of the vote. Kasich gets 32% from 27%, while Trump gets just 53% from 60% of the vote. Whereas in Florida, Trump got 100% of delegates with 46% of the vote.

Tune in for results tonight!

Why You Should Care About The Pennsylvania Primaries

Ah, this is a fun one. The Pennsylvania primary is complex, but it could be key.

DEMOCRATS
Clinton is basically guaranteed victory. However, it could turn out close, or it could be a brutal landslide. The polls are conflicted and there's no way of knowing who's right. Hillary's path leads through a strong showing in Philadelphia. Bernie will try to run up his margin in Appalachia and keep it close.

REPUBLICANS
This is the interesting part. There are 71 Republican delegates. 17 are awarded to the statewide winner, likely to be Trump by a considerable margin. The other 54, however, are selected in each district. Three will be chosen out of a list of delegates on the ballot. This is fairly standard. However, the delegates are unbound and do not list a preference, leading to some more potential Cruz mischief. While many vote for the inner of the Congressional District, others may use their power to help anti-Trump forces.

Week 20: "The Northeast Decides" (April 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 44

Days until General Election: 198

REPUBLICANS

New York Results

... And the results are in and it was a brutal landslide! Trump hit 60% and took 90 of 95 delegates, winning all but one congressional district. The multi-billionaire’s one weak spot was the ultra-wealthy island of Manhattan, which is so painfully ironic. Cruz failed to win a delegate, no doubt thanks to his “New York values” comment. Kasich took his first delegates in over a month by winning 5.

State of the Race

At this point, neither Cruz nor Kasich can get a majority of pledged delegates. This doesn’t mean it will be easy for Trump to get a majority: he needs about 63% of remaining delegates, including winner-take-all states like Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska in which Cruz is favored. While Trump is likely to win when uncommitted delegates are factored in, the path to stopping him runs through two states...

Indiana: Cruz and Trump are about even from limited data here. Whoever wins the state gets a big delegate benefit, and a Wisconsin-like win, or even a slightly better prepared Missouri could reap benefits for Cruz.

California: The biggest state doesn’t come until June 7, and Trump should win, but if it’s anywhere close, expect to see anti-Trump forces bank everything here.

DEMOCRATS

New York Results: This Time It’s Personal

As expected, Hillary won. CNN exit polls initially showed a close 52-48 race. However, in the end it wound up 58-42. A win here prefaces good things to come this Tuesday for the Clinton campaign. Bernie won almost all of upstate New York, but Hillary’s strength in NYC proper and urban areas like Buffalo and Rochester let her easily hang on for the win in her adopted home state. As she said in her victory speech, “This time it’s personal”.

State of the Race

Clinton holds a nearly insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, and an incredible lead in superdelegates. In order for Bernie to win he’d have to get up to 80% in California and break even the rest of the way, which is nearly impossible. And even then, because of his strength in caucuses, Hillary would maintain the popular vote lead and retain enough superdelegates to win anyway.

FORECASTS

April 26

Connecticut: Hillary 56, Bernie 42

Delaware: Hillary 59, Bernie 39

Maryland: Hillary 63, Bernie 36

Pennsylvania: Hillary 54, Bernie 46

Rhode Island: Bernie 52, Hillary 47

April 26

Connecticut: Trump 44, Kasich 33, Cruz 21

Delaware: Trump 52, Kasich 25, Cruz 21

Maryland: Trump 39, Kasich 34, Cruz 26

Pennsylvania: Trump 43, Cruz 29, Kasich 25

Rhode Island: Trump 57, Kasich 28, Cruz 12

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Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage (and previews of the upcoming slew of primaries).

Why You Should Care About the Maryland Primaries

This is part two of a series detailing the five primaries this Tuesday. Now, we are brought to Maryland.

DEMOCRATS

This is likely to be a huge landslide, as the primary electorate is 37% African-American (2008 exit poll data). Hillary should near 70% no doubt. I can't see it being any closer than, say, 59-41, but even that would be an outlier.

REPUBLICANS

Here is where it gets interesting: Maryland is Kasich's best hope to compete. It is winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district, however, so a close second for Kasich will still get him zilch. With bases of support for both Cruz and Kasich, this could be one of Trump's weakest states. Despite this, he may still walk away with all 38 delegates.

Why You Should Care About the Connecticut Primaries

This is part one of a five-part series detailing the primaries next Tuesday.

DEMOCRATS
The Connecticut primary is probably Bernie Sanders' best chance to avoid a total blowout. If he could come close or even win Connecticut, it wouldn't be an absolute disaster. That said, Hillary would like to capitalize on the diverse electorate and remains the likely favorite. It is also possible that Bernie could narrow his deficit and turn it into likely the most interesting primary this Tuesday.

REPUBLICANS
Trump is heavily favored here, with Kasich favored for second. Because of the delegate allocation, Kasich will pick up a few delegates from the at-large pile, and possibly win one congressional district. Cruz's best hope is to get some at-large delegates, as those are allocated completely proportionally. However, there are only 10 (or 13, it's unclear) of these, so the districts will be the larger prize, but also fairly uncompetitive.

Why You Should Care About the New York Primary

Tomorrow, the New York primary approaches. It's probably been the most-polled, most-covered primary since South Carolina. With the two frontrunners very likely getting huge wins, the question is: Why?

DEMOCRATS

The delegate allocation is straightforward in that it's exactly the same as all Democratic delegate allocation: Basically proportional. With it looking like Hillary will earn a ~15 point win, that translates into about 50 extra delegates. As you can imagine, that's not a great position to be in for the already trailing Sanders campaign. This primary will probably spell the end, unless they can pull off a Michigan-style upset.

REPUBLICANS

The delegate allocation here is less simple. There are 14 statewide delegates, and Trump seems poised to hit 50% and win all of them. The other 81 delegates are awarded to the winners of each congressional district. If someone clears 50%, they'll receive all 3. If nobody does, the top two finishers split it 2-1. There is a possibility for Cruz and Kasich to pick up some of these delegates in low-Republican congressional districts in New York City. If Trump falls below 50%, however, this will look a little different, and Kasich and Cruz will get both proportional statewide delegates and, potentially, a couple of extra CD delegates.

Week 19: "They Should See A Psychiatrist" (April 17, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 51

Days until General Election: 205

REPUBLICANS

Cruz Campaign Continues to Outsmart Trump

One common theme that’s recently emerged in the campaign is Ted Cruz’s campaign fishing for delegates every way possible as Trump’s campaign looks on, shaken. At the second half of the Wyoming convention this week, Cruz took all 12 delegates. At the Georgia convention, Cruz’s campaign loaded even Trump delegate slots with Cruz supporters, which in the likely event of a contested convention will matter greatly.

Said Cruz campaign manager, Jeff Roe, “[the campaign] is a multilevel Rubik’s Cube. Trump thought it was a golf ball — you just had to whack it.” Cruz has given himself the advantage in a brokered convention through his mastery of the process. On the other hand, Trump couldn’t even line up a speaker for the Wyoming convention, after Sarah Palin said she couldn’t make it. When Palin is your first choice and you have no second choice, you seem pretty vulnerable.

Paul Ryan Not to Accept Nomination at Convention

Another possibility at the convention would be the nomination of somebody who had failed to run: A common name is Paul Ryan. However, this week Speaker Ryan said he wouldn’t like the nomination, and urged delegates to note vote for him, saying he wouldn’t accept the nomination. Another person to fall in the path of future President Schwarzenegger!

DEMOCRATS

Candidates’ Brawl Gets Bloodier

The Clinton and Sanders campaigns have been duking it out for months, and this week was no exception. At the Thursday debate in Brooklyn, the candidates argued over everything from tax returns to Israel. My friend Elias Gerstein, who was at the debate, said: “I think Bernie went crazy! He lost the debate, but he brought up some amazing ideas on minimum wage.” Both candidates are geared towards Tuesday’s New York primary, holding huge rallies and campaigning every inch of the state. While Hillary is favored, this state is still a must-win for the Sanders campaign.

Bernie Releases Tax Returns, Goes to Rome

In a bizarre move, Bernie Sanders left the campaign trail to meet with Pope Francis in Rome and make a speech. It’s unclear the particular motivation for this, and the pope said, "When I came down, I greeted them, shook their hands and nothing more. This is good manners. It's called good manners and not getting mixed up in politics. If anyone thinks that greeting someone means getting involved in politics, they should see a psychiatrist.”

Also this week, Bernie released his tax returns, something he has long been pressured to do. Hillary, however, still refuses to release her Wall Street speeches.

FORECASTS

New York (4/19):

Hillary Clinton 56.2%

Bernie Sanders 42.7%

New York (4/19):

Donald Trump 55.1%, 80 delegates

John Kasich 26%, 12 delegates

Ted Cruz 18.6%, 3 delegates

ODDS

Hillary Clinton 99.2%

Bernie Sanders .8%

Donald Trump 52%

Ted Cruz 36%

John Kasich 6%

Paul Ryan/Mitt Romney 3%

Other 3%

Chaos: 100%

Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage, especially as the New York primary draws near. Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 18: "Cruz Unwanted in the Bronx" (April 10, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 58

Days until General Election: 212

REPUBLICANS

Results: Two for Cruz

This Tuesday was the crucial Wisconsin primary, and it was no surprise when Ted Cruz won. He came out with 39 delegates to Trump’s 9, and 48% to Trump’s 35%. The key reason for his overperformance was a tactical shift from Kasich to Cruz, as Kasich got just 14% and failed to win even Dane County (Madison) in which he was assumed to win,

Also this week was the Colorado convention which appears to be a sweep for Cruz. Anywhere from 17 to 34 of the 37 delegates have been confirmed for him, with none confirmed for Trump or Cruz. It was a good week for Cruz, and possibly pushes it slightly closer to a contested convention, but it shouldn’t tip the scale too much.

Cruz Booed out of the Bronx

Ted Cruz visited the Bronx this week. Throughout the visit, he was swarmed with protesters, and had to cancel one visit to a school.

"We told [the principal] if he came here, we would schedule a walkout," said Destiny Domeneck, 16. "Most of us are immigrants or come from immigrant backgrounds. Ted Cruz goes against everything our school stands for."

This might be confusing since there are very few Republicans in the bronx, but the Bronx is worth just as many delegates as huge Republican strongholds upstate. (For more on this, check out this story.

DEMOCRATS

Results: Wisconsin and Wyoming

In Wisconsin, Bernie got 58% and won every county but Milwaukee, which Clinton won by only 3%. He came out about 10 delegates ahead. In Wyoming, Bernie won 55-45, but it wound up a tie in delegates. He may have very slightly shrunk the gap, but it does nothing to stop Hillary’s inevitability. (Although it may be necessary to note that Bernie has now won 7 of the last 8 primaries, it will make absolutely no difference.)

Bernie Keeps Making Excuses

For the 600th time, Bernie has dismissed Clinton’s lead by saying “it’s all from the South” and “no Democrat will ever win in the South”. Of course, Bernie has won in Democratic strongholds of Idaho and Utah, and important swing states Wyoming, Alaska, and Kansas. It’s not rare to hear this rhetoric, but to anyone who believes Hillary shouldn’t be leading, she has more votes. Everything is legitimate and if you’re going to complain about delegate rules, talk to the RNC, not the DNC.

FORECASTS

Wyoming Convention (2.0) 4/16

Cruz: 11 delegates

Trump: 1 delegate

Kasich: 0 delegates

Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage, especially as the New York primary draws near. Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Why You Should Care About the Wyoming Democratic Caucus

Whoopee! The Wyoming democratic caucus is this weekend, and all 7 Democrats in Wyoming will be there! It almost sounds like a punchline, and true to its form, it's worth just 18 delegates (compare that to California's 548). And of course Bernie Sanders will win. He's won every neighboring state and every caucus since Super Tuesday.

What to Look For
Again, this should be very low-turnout (One of the first things on Google Images when you search for "Wyoming democrat" is the Wyoming Republican Party logo), but the main question is: Can Bernie keep up the 80-20 margins like he won in Washington, Alaska, and the like? If he has a bad night and falls to, say, 60% in this state that should be so favorable to him, it's almost certain his campaign has no hope. But if, remarkably, he keeps Hillary under the 15% threshold, it will be a great victory for the campaign.

Week 17: "Delegate Trickery and Party Infighting" (April 3, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

(I'm pretty sure the title can also be a general headline for the campaign, it's never not appropriate)

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 65

Days until General Election: 219

REPUBLICANS

North Dakota Convention

There weren’t any real primaries this week, but the closest we’ll get is the North Dakota republican convention, at which the 25 unbound delegates were selected. From what we know, of those, 19 were Cruz supporters. The other 6, we don’t know, but it’s fair to assume Trump won 1 or 2. This is still a dismal result and a definite decisive win for the GOP establishment.

Buffoon Misuses Poll

This morning Donald Trump posted a picture of a poll showing him leading in Wisconsin 37-26. Most polls of Wisconsin show Cruz leading decisively. The catch? This was the crosstab of the poll among independents, who Trump does better with. I’m sure plenty of people saw this and completely trusted it, which just goes to show that people are terrible at reading the fine print and will believe anything their leader says. Regardless, there is nearly no chance of Trump winning Wisconsin (For more on that, go here). As another interesting caveat, this was a Fox News poll, Fox News being an organization that Trump absolutely despises.

Candidates Renounce Pledge

All three candidates decided to renounce a pledge they had earlier signed to support the eventual nominee. Cruz was the first to do this, angered over Trump’s insulting of his wife. Trump, in retaliation, did the same. (Earlier this summer, it was unclear whether he’d agree to do this at all). Kasich followed suit, in what was most likely a desperate attempt to get into the news, or separate himself from the gutter politics that his two rivals specialize in. While it’s hard to see these candidates not supporting the nominee in the end, with everything that’s happened already, nothing can surprise me.

DEMOCRATS

Delegate Trickery Gives Sanders Apparent Edge in Nevada

Some floor maneuvering and delegate manipulation at the Clark and Washoe County conventions in Nevada have given Sanders a majority of delegates in Nevada going into the state convention in May. It’s unclear how this feat was accomplished, with people pointing fingers to trickery from both campaigns, but regardless, this is another piece of evidence to the case for eliminating caucuses.

FORECASTS

Wisconsin Primary (4/5): Cruz 43, Trump 34, Kasich 21

Colorado Convention (4/8-9): Cruz 73, Kasich 14, Trump 10

Wisconsin Primary (4/5): Sanders 54, Clinton 44

Wyoming Caucus (4/9): Sanders 77, Clinton 18

PERSONAL, UNSCIENTIFIC, ODDS

Hillary Clinton 98%

Bernie Sanders 2%

Majority (20%):

Donald Trump 20%

Convention (80%):

Donald Trump 38%

Ted Cruz 26%

John Kasich 4%

Other (Romney/Ryan/Rubio?) 12%

Total:

Trump 58%

Cruz 26%

Kasich 4%

Other 12%

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Why You Should Care About the Wisconsin Primary

As you may or may not know, the Wisconsin primary is approaching fast. There's been quite some buzz about Wisconsin but why, exactly, is it important?

DEMOCRATS

The Democratic race is an exceedingly close one, with Sanders having a 5 point edge or so. Will this be the deciding factor? No. Sanders should have the edge here, but considering the nature of the race, for him to stay on pace he might have to get about 65% of the vote, which is very, very unlikely. That being said, if Hillary wins, Sanders may have no justification to stay in the race as states like New York and Maryland draw closer.

REPUBLICANS

This is where it's really important. The "Stop Trump" movement is hedging it's bets on Wisconsin, and for now it appears Cruz will likely win. Because of the nature of the delegate allocation, however, this is a very important race for the Stop Trump movement to do well in. The winner of the state will receive 18 delegates, and the winner of each Congressional District will receive 3. Luckily for Cruz and Kasich, their support is very divided. Upstate Wisconsin is a strong base for Cruz, while Milwaukee and its suburbs like Kasich. Because of this, Trump could get 35% of the vote, but win just one or two CDs, and come out with a low amount of delegates. If Trump gets no delegates, which would be unlikely but not impossible, it will become increasingly likely he will not be able to reach a first-ballot majority.