Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Why You Should Care About the Delaware and Rhode Island Primaries

These states may not be close together, but they're both tiny and the primaries are today, so I'm going to combine them.


Hillary should easily win here. Bernie could try to keep the margin in low single digits, and it's likely to be closer than Maryland, but there's no real competition here. There hasn't been a ton of polling, but it all points to Clinton +13 or so

The state is winner-take-all and without a doubt Trump will win. He's been seen nearing 60% in polls, and if it were even 20 points closer than that, it wouldn't matter since it's winner-take-all.

Rhode Island

This state is nearly a tossup. A recent PPP poll shows Sanders leading by 4, but since it's the only reliable poll, there's a chance it could be wrong. This state is certainly Sanders' best chance for a win, but there's a chance he may even lose here.

Because of the nature of the delegate allocation here, Trump will certainly lose a few delegates. While I maintain Trump may hit 60%, it will not be easy for him. 

If we say the following vote percentages occur:
Trump 60%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 12%

Then at-large, Trump gets 8 delegates, Kasich receives 3/4, and Cruz gets 1/2.

For each of the two congressional districts, the top three finishers receive 1 delegate each unless

a) someone hits 67%
b) less than three people get 10%

While there is a chance for either of those to occur, let's assume the two congressional districts are similar and they each get one. Then, the final outlook will be:

Trump 10
Kasich 6
Cruz 3

Cruz gets 16% of delegates with 12% of the vote. Kasich gets 32% from 27%, while Trump gets just 53% from 60% of the vote. Whereas in Florida, Trump got 100% of delegates with 46% of the vote.

Tune in for results tonight!

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