Sunday, February 28, 2016

Week 12: "A Tuesday That's Super" (February 28, 2016)

Dear Readers,
This week has been a traffic jam on I-95 filled with news. I’ll help you make sense of all that’s happened.

Days until Super Tuesday: 2
Days until General Election: 254


Trump Endorsed by KKK, Christie
Donald Trump was endorsed by some notable individuals this week. New Jersey Governor and unsuccessful candidate Chris Christie endorsed him, for one. Considering some of the ways Christie attacked Trump, this came as a surprise to many. This is a desperate plea for Christie to remain relevant/get a cabinet position. Another group of individuals that endorsed him were... the Ku Klux Klan (and prominent member/former congressman David Duke). Trump accepted the endorsement with... not closed arms. He refused to disavow Duke’s endorsement specifically.

There was a debate, and nobody won. The moderators didn’t control the screaming, and the candidates did just that: Scream. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio yelled at each other until the closed captioners gave up. All three attacked each other relentlessly, and Kasich and Carson may have shown up, speaking for seemingly no time at all.

Rubio: “Maybe Trump Peed himself”
I’m going to let this quote tell the story for itself: “...First he had this little makeup thing, applying makeup around his mustache, because he had one of those sweat mustaches. Then he asked for a full-length mirror. I don’t know why, because the podium goes up to here. Maybe he was making sure his pants weren’t wet. I don’t know.” -Marco Rubio

The Nevada Republican Caucuses occurred! And... Trump got 46%. The GOP itself promptly gave up, and some of its members (see above) even endorsed him. If anyone wants to catch him, something has to happen fast.


South Carolina
The Democrats dueled in South Carolina yesterday, and Clinton walked out with 73% to Bernie’s 26.5%. This sure to be a bad moment for the Sanders campaign, and the nomination may effectively have been decided.

Super Tuesday:
ALABAMA: Trump +17
ALASKA: Trump +14
GEORGIA: Trump +8
OKLAHOMA: Trump +10
TENNESSEE: Trump +21
TEXAS: Cruz +5
VERMONT: Trump +17
VIRGINIA: Trump +3

ALABAMA: Clinton +39
ARKANSAS: Clinton +28
COLORADO: Sanders +4
GEORGIA: Clinton +30
MINNESOTA: Clinton +12
OKLAHOMA: Clinton +25
TENNESSEE: Clinton +33
TEXAS: Clinton +23
VERMONT: Sanders +77
VIRGINIA: Clinton +13

March 5th/6th (of course, these will be impacted by Tuesday’s results, so accuracy will be low):
KANSAS: Trump +18
KENTUCKY: Trump +15
LOUISIANA: Trump +22
MAINE: Trump +13
PUERTO RICO: Rubio +46

KANSAS: Clinton +18
LOUISIANA: Clinton +29
MAINE: Sanders +10
NEBRASKA: Clinton +27

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Week 11: "Scalia, South Carolina, and Much, Much More" (February 21, 2016)

Dear Readers,

This week has been insane.  I’ll help you make sense of all that’s happened so far.

Days until NV Republican Caucus: 2
Days until SC Democratic Primary: 6
Days until Super Tuesday: 9
Days until General Election: 261


Scalia’s Death: The Implications
As you’ve probably heard, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died this past week. The very conservative justice was 79, and died on a quail hunting trip with a good friend at his ranch in Texas. The Senate Republicans have announced they won’t allow any of Obama’s nominees to get through, citing an unwritten rule improperly. The “rule” is that in the last 6 months of a president’s term, you don’t accept any nominations. However, there are 11 months left in Obama’s term.

South Carolina Results
Surprise, surprise. Donald Trump won South Carolina. Finishing with a decent 32%, he claimed victory and all 50 delegates. Marco Rubio won a hard-fought second place from Ted Cruz. The two were separated by only 1,000 votes. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all underwhelmingly finished in the 7% range. The potential implications are good for Trump and Rubio. Cruz should do well in Southern evangelical states, but a third-place finish here isn’t what I’d call “good”.

Jeb! Drops Out
Jeb Bush dropped out following a disastrous South Carolina performance. He hasn’t endorsed yet, but conventional wisdom says he endorses Rubio. This didn’t come as a surprise to many, but it’s a little sad to see him put so much effort into a state and wind up .6% away from last. (Sound familiar, Mike Huckabee?) A good New York Times piece shows that Jeb’s voters are ideologically/demographically the most similar to Rubio’s, but we shall see.

“Not Christian”
This week, Pope Francis declared that Donald Trump “wasn’t a Christian” because of his desire to build a wall. Trump replied by saying, and I quote, “If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President...” This may not have have had a huge impact in Protestant, evangelical South Carolina, but in states like Massachusetts, it will.


Scalia’s Death: The Implications
With a sitting president, the Democrats should be able to get their choice for succession easily, right? No. Wrong. Obama will, thus, probably use his nominees to make a statement and help his fellow Democrats in November. Expected nominees include Loretta Lynch and Sri Srinivasan. This is sure to be a hotly contested argument in the coming weeks, especially once we get to the general election.

Nevada Results
Hillary Clinton narrowly beat Bernie Sanders in Nevada. Bernie had decent odds of winning, and the campaign should be troubled by this. With a presumed blowout in South Carolina (more on that later), Bernie’s momentum doesn’t look so good. However, this result wasn’t unexpected (Gravis’ poll predicted the result exactly), so we’ll see what the repercussions are.

Personal, Unscientific, Nevada Forecasts:
Donald Trump - 37.1%
Marco Rubio - 27.2%
Ted Cruz - 21.6%
John Kasich - 8.4%
Ben Carson - 5.7% (if he doesn’t drop out)

Personal, Unscientific, South Carolina Forecasts:
Hillary Clinton - 61.5%
Bernie Sanders - 38.5%

Things to Look For:
-Rubio’s support among Hispanics

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just comment!

Saturday, February 20, 2016

Same-Day Predictions for February 20 Primaries: Blog-only (February 20, 2016)

Hello Blog Readers,

My predictions for the SC/Nevada primaries are about a week old, and plenty has happened since then. Here are some updated predictions for you to enjoy.

Donald Trump 26.5%
Marco Rubio 23.5%
Ted Cruz 18.6%
Jeb Bush 12.1%
John Kasich 9.1%
Ben Carson 7%
Other 3.2%

Hillary Clinton 53.4%
Bernie Sanders 46.1%
Uncommitted 0.5%

Follow live results (starting at 4:30-ish) herehere, and here. Enjoy!

Tuesday, February 16, 2016



You stumbled upon The Electability Report. Good job!

The Electability Report was started in December 2015 as a newsletter. This blog was founded in February 2016 as a collection of my old newsletters.

The purpose:
-To post my newsletter
-To blab about politics
-To publicize my newsletter

Keep on reading!

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Week 10: "Moving South and West" (February 14, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the New Hampshire results come out, but South Carolina and Nevada are coming! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Days until SC Primaries: 5 for Republicans, 12 for Democrats
Days until NV Caucuses: 5 for Democrats, 8 for Republicans
Days until Super Tuesday: 15
Days until General Election: 267


New Hampshire Results
Let’s get it out of our systems. Yes, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. No surprise there. The surprise was second place, won by John Kasich. This sparked a lot of momentum. The main story was how much Marco Rubio dropped. His atrocious debate killed his momentum and he struggled to reach 10%.

Another Dropout Trio
After New Hampshire, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out. They both failed to reach the 10% threshold required for receiving delegates. Meanwhile, notable 0% getter Jim Gilmore finally decided to hang up his aspirations. Many wondered, “Why now, Jim?” But nobody cared enough to actually ask. Farewell to all three.

Has Trump Gone Mad?
There was another debate! (Really. ANOTHER.) This one featured intense amounts of argument and clash. Trump insulted George W. Bush, leaving Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to defend the popular (among Republicans) former president. Trump played aggressive and many question his strategy. Ted Cruz faded away and made no real impression. Ben Carson fell asleep (again) and John Kasich was clearly tired of being the only moderate voice.


New Hampshire Results
New Hampshire has really Felt the Bern©. Bernie Sanders earned 60% of the vote, dwarfing Hillary’s 38%. Nobody expected this large of a margin of victory, and the Sanders camp was very pleased.

Upcoming Events:
Feb 20: South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Personal, Unscientific, Nevada Forecasts:
Hillary Clinton 53.8%
Bernie Sanders 46.2%

Personal, Unscientific, South Carolina Forecasts:
Donald Trump - 34.5%
Ted Cruz - 24.1%
Marco Rubio - 14.7%
John Kasich - 11%
Jeb Bush - 10.1%
Ben Carson - 5.6%

Things to Look For:
-How real is the Kasich surge?
-The order Rubio, Kasich, and Jeb finish in
-How good is Cruz’s ground game (How much does he overperform by)
-How well Bernie does. A recent poll shows them tied!

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to Saturday’s results! And lastly, HAPPY PRESIDENT’S DAY!

Monday, February 8, 2016

Week 9: "New Hampshire on the Horizon" (February 7, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the Iowa results come out, but New Hampshire is tomorrow! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Days until NH Primaries: 1
Days until SC Primaries: 12
Days until Super Tuesday: 22
Days until General Election: 274


Rubio Creamed by Christie
There was yet another debate this week. The main story was Marco Rubio repeating a talking point thrice and being grilled by Chris Christie. We’ll see what effect this has on voting, but I think the press is making too big of a deal about it. For more fun, look up the GOP candidates’ entrances.

A Trio of Dropouts
After Iowa, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee dropped out. They all did poor jobs and had little hope going on, although most people figured Rand would hang on at least until New Hampshire. (Results lower down)


Goodbye O’Malley
Martin O’Malley dropped out after finishing with under 1% in Iowa. I feel very bad for the guy. While this can be owed to Iowa’s viability threshold, requiring a candidate to get 15% at a precinct location to receive any credit, Martin was so embarrassed he immediately suspended his campaign.

Upcoming Events:
Feb. 9: New Hampshire Primaries
Feb. 11: Democratic Debate

A Discussion of Iowa Results:
On the Republican side, Ted Cruz won a huge upset win over Donald Trump 27%-24%. Marco Rubio, with last-minute momentum behind him, got 23% surprising everyone and giving him momentum. Ben Carson also got a solid 9%. Nobody else got above 4%. For the Democrats, it was so close they waited two days to call it. Hillary did win in the end, but it was very, very close.

Personal, Unscientific, New Hampshire Forecasts:

Bernie Sanders - 56.2%
Hillary Clinton - 43.8%

Donald Trump - 28.9%
Marco Rubio - 16.5%
John Kasich - 16.2%
Ted Cruz - 13.0%
Jeb Bush - 11.2%
Chris Christie - 5.8%
Carly Fiorina - 4.9%
Ben Carson - 3.3%
Jim Gilmore - 0.1%

Things to Look For:
-Who finishes in second on the Republican side? Everyone is disagreeing on this - various polls: Kasich with 17, Jeb with 18, Rubio with 19, or Cruz with 14. Any of these could happen, and the polling is so erratic that we have no idea,
-How real is Trump? He was upset in Iowa, NH will be a true test.
-How real is Bernie? He could win by 20%+, but if Hillary makes it close, Bernie may not be so strong, especially for the future.

A Final Note
At midnight tonight, three tiny mountain towns will release voting. They’ll combine for under 100 votes, but it’s a curious tradition that will be amusing to watch, at least.

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to tomorrow’s results!