Week 3: "Another One Bites the Dust" (December 27, 2015)

Dear Readers,

This week in politics has not been an uneventful one (nor has it been an eventful one - I mean, it’s the holidays, what do you expect?). Trump has continued insulting anyone and everyone in his line of sight, and, most importantly, a candidate has exited the race.

Countdowns

Days until Iowa caucuses: 36

Days until New Hampshire primaries: 44

Days until general election: 316

REPUBLICANS

(Note: Colors represent those used by RealClearPolitics.com)

And Another One’s Gone

The Republican field of, at its peak, 16 1/2 (That means you, Jim Gilmore) has narrowed in the past weeks. First we lost Rick Perry and Scott Walker, then in November Bobby Jindal dropped out. And, this Monday, Lindsey Graham, who never topped 2% in national polls and was under 3% in his home state of South Carolina, withdrew from the race. Graham’s exit may not appear noteworthy - he was relegated to the undercard debate in every debate he was invited to, and his only endorsement was from his good friend and avid supporter Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). However, he is a well-liked member of the Senate who initially led a mini-crusade against Marco Rubio, and at his exit seemed determined as ever to stop Donald Trump, so we shall see what implications this has for the future.

Trump vs. Hillary

This week, Trump made fun of Hillary Clinton for taking a prolonged bathroom break during last week’s debate. In addition to this, he used some “colorful” language to describe her loss to Obama in 2008. Could this be the end of Donald’s reign? Perhaps, but every time anyone says that, he automatically jumps 3% in the polls, so any drop is doubtful.

DEMOCRATS

Minor Movement in Polls

There have been few polls released since the debate, but most show a small downtick for Hillary Clinton. That being from ~52% to ~50%, the long-term implications seem to be minor, but the one gainer seems to be Martin O’Malley, who recently hit 10% in Iowa for the first time.

Upcoming Events:

One month until Iowa (January 1)

New Year’s Day

Personal, Unscientific, Odds

Ted Cruz, 38%

Marco Rubio, 37%

Donald Trump, 9%

Chris Christie, 7%

Jeb Bush, 4%

All Others, <2%

Hillary Clinton, 90%

Bernie Sanders, 8%

Martin O’Malley, 2%

Sorry that this one was short, not much happens during the holiday weeks. Thanks for reading! Any questions? Feel free to ask me! Happy New Year!

Week 2: "Debate Madness" (December 20, 2015)

Dear Readers,

This week in politics has not been an uneventful one. There were two debates, and Trump could be either finished or invincible. I'm going to help you make sense of it all.

Countdowns

Days until Iowa Caucuses: 43

Days until New Hampshire Primaries: 51

Days until General Election: 323

REPUBLICANS

(Note: Colors represent those used by RealClearPolitics.com)

Vegas Debate Madness

Of course, there was a debate. With Ted Cruz recently having overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, but Trump rising elsewhere, and the new “frontrunner” status of Marco Rubio, it was an interesting one. And, as FiveThirtyEight put it, it was a “nine-way tie.” If there’s one thing it’s showed, Dr. Ben Carson has continued falling, maybe even more so, and Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and to a lesser extent, Trump and Chris Christie, all have risen in the polls. It also included Rand Paul burning Christie over “BridgeGate,” and, of course, a slew of irrelevant and attention-grabbing statements by Trump. But in the long run, the impact this debate will have is probably pretty low.

“Jerk”

Aside from the debate, the one thing grabbing headlines this week was something Jeb Bush said: Calling Donald Trump a “jerk” at a rally in New Hampshire. We will have to wait and see what effect this has, but it’ll probably be minimal. Besides, why state the obvious?

40%

A minor milestone – for the first time, someone has hit 40% in a poll in Iowa – Ted Cruz, who has now built a large lead in Iowa. However, this could change at any time, so it is far from a sure thing.

DEMOCRATS

A Debate In New Hampshire

That’s right, there was a debate. Tucked away on a Saturday, the DNC’s curious strategy to limit viewership is in full effect. There were no memorable moments, as each candidate did his or her best. Polls have not been released since the debate, but it seems as if Hillary Clinton may have edged out Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley in terms of who the “winner” was.

Upcoming Events:

Nothing of much importance.

Personal, Un-Scientific, Odds:

Ted Cruz, 38%

Marco Rubio, 31%

Donald Trump, 13%

Chris Christie, 6%

Jeb Bush, 5%

All Others, <2%

Hillary Clinton, 95%

Bernie Sanders, 4%

Martin O’Malley, 1%

Thanks for reading! Any questions? Disagreements? Want me to change the format? Just reply and I’ll be glad to help!

Week 1: "Cruzmania" (December 13, 2015)

Dear Readers,

This week in politics has not been an uneventful one. There have been shifts in polls, outrageous things said, and I am going to help you make sense of it all:

Trump’s Outrageous Claim

Donald Trump on Monday claimed that he would “ban all Muslims from entering the country.” This was so outrageous even fellow presidential hopeful and rigorously anti-ISIS senator Lindsey Graham describes it as horribly racist and terrible.

Trump’s Reign in Iowa Ends

These statements haven’t been met with love from the public; the one poll released since this statement was in Iowa showed Senator Ted Cruz leading Trump by 10%. Compare this to previous polls showing Trump leading by anywhere from 5 to 15% over Cruz or Dr. Ben Carson and this has whopping impact.

Iowa Caucus Milestone

Speaking of Iowa, it is exactly 50 days until the Iowa caucuses. Cruz recently took the lead in the RCP average, and unlike Carson or Trump, he is showing the potential to be a serious politician.

Democratic Overview

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are duking it out for the nomination, but national polls show Hillary with ~55% of the vote, to Bernie’s 35%. Iowa and New Hampshire are slightly closer, with Sanders having a slight majority in New Hampshire. However, sites like BetFair have Clinton’s odds at up to 90%, and it’s her nomination to lose.

Upcoming Events:

CNN Republican Debate on December 15th featuring George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum in the earlier debate at 6:00.

The main 8:30 debate will feature John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Donald J Trump, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie.

Meanwhile, on the 19th there will be a Democratic debate on ABC News featuring Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley.

Personal Odds:

Ted Cruz, 43%

Marco Rubio, 40%

Chris Christie, 7%

Donald J Trump, 4%

All Others, >2%

Hillary Clinton, 87%

Bernie Sanders, 10%

Martin O’Malley, 3%

Thanks for reading! Any questions? Just reply and I’ll be happy to help!