Week 16: "Trump/Cruz Feud Gets Serious" (March 27, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 72

Days until General Election: 226

REPUBLICANS

Results: Trump-Cruz Split in the West

On the Republican side this week, Utah and Arizona voted. Utah voted 69% for Ted Cruz. That wasn’t a surprise, and neither was the Arizona result, as Donald Trump won with 47%. This did not come without controversy. Early voting in Arizona allowed Marco Rubio, now dropped out, to recieve 13%, more than John Kasich (poor John). People argued that this was unfair and harmed Cruz’s chances, when that extra 13% would’ve still put him 10% out of first place. Since Arizona is winner take all, that would have made absolutely no difference.

Trump and Cruz Feud BIG-TIME

This week, Trump and Cruz brought out the big guns. Ted Cruz started out by insulting Melania Trump, Donald’s wife, by posting a risqué picture from a photoshoot back in 2000. Trump responded, ominously, by threatening to “spill the beans on Heidi,” Ted Cruz’s wife. Coincidentally, the next day the National Enquirer released a story claiming Ted Cruz had five affairs with different women, some in the Cruz campaign, and some in other people’s campaigns!

Donald responded by saying, “I have nothing to do with the National Enquirer and unlike Lyin' Ted Cruz I do not surround myself with political hacks and henchman and then pretend total innocence. While they were right about O.J. Simpson, John Edwards, and many others, I certainly hope they are not right about Lyin' Ted Cruz.” To be fair, the National Enquirer also proclaimed Hillary Clinton had cancer and had 5 months to live, and that one didn’t pan out so well, so...

Trump Threatens to Sue RNC For No Reason At All

Trump also threatened to sue the RNC because “Just to show you how unfair Republican primary politics can be, I won the State of Louisiana and get less delegates than Cruz - Lawsuit coming”. Now, the rules of the RNC are inherently undemocratic, but Trump of course fails to note that this Tuesday Cruz got more votes, but Trump won 18 more delegates. To add to this, the margin of Louisiana was very close, and Cruz has earned delegates due to his performance in congressional districts - something perfectly reasonable. I can’t way to see Trump get laughed off the courtroom floor for this one.

DEMOCRATS

Results: Bernie Continues to Win Big in Caucuses

Six primaries were held this week, all of them out west, and Bernie Sanders won 5: Washington, Alaska, Utah, Idaho, and Hawai’i. Clinton won the Arizona primary. This is the first time Bernie has come out of a day ahead of delegates, although he is still fairly far behind where he has to be in order to win the nomination.

FORECASTS

It’s a very slow week this week, with only the North Dakota Republican caucus occurring.

NORTH DAKOTA: Cruz 57, Trump 22, Kasich 18

PERSONAL, UNSCIENTIFIC, ODDS

Hillary Clinton 97%

Bernie Sanders 3%

Majority:

Donald Trump 49%

Ted Cruz 1%

Convention:

Donald Trump 26%

Ted Cruz 6%

John Kasich 5%

Other (Romney/Ryan/Rubio?) 13%

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 15: "Farewell, Little Marco" (March 20, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and bonus content) is available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 79

Days until General Election: 233

REPUBLICANS

Results

Five states and the Northern Mariana Islands voted this week on the Republican side. The important winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio were split, with John Kasich taking his home state of Ohio and Donald Trump taking Marco Rubio’s home state, Florida. Trump also won Missouri, North Carolina, Illinois, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Kasich declared Ohio a victory for him, even though he needs to win 115% of the remaining delegates (an impossible task) to earn a majority.

Rubio Finally Drops Out

After coming out of his home state 20 points back, winning only one primary, Marco Rubio called it quits. He also said he was “done with politics”. It’s been a fun campaign for Mr. Rubio, starting from nowhere and by the end, well...

LITTLE MARCO’S CAMPAIGN HIGHLIGHTS

-Donald Trump calling him out for sweating too much

-A last-minute Iowa surge that sparked momentum...

-...which was immediately eliminated when Chris Christie destroyed him at a debate for repeating himself

-Insulting the size of Donald Trump’s “hands”

-Winning one state

-Being dubbed “Little Marco”

DEMOCRATS

Results

The same five states (but not the NMI) voted on Tuesday for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton completed a sweep, including unlikely wins in Missouri and Illinois. In the end, Bernie only came in ~80 delegates behind, but it was an embarrassing results when the Sanders campaign had hoped for a minimum of two victories.

FORECASTS:

AMERICAN SAMOA: Cruz 38, Trump 33, Kasich 26

ARIZONA: Trump 43, Cruz 37, Kasich 16

UTAH: Cruz 54, Kasich 27, Trump 14

March 22:

ARIZONA: Clinton 57, Sanders 41

IDAHO: Sanders 64, Clinton 34

UTAH: Sanders 68, Clinton 29

March 26:

ALASKA: Sanders 59, Clinton 39

HAWAI’I: Sanders 54, Clinton 40

WASHINGTON: Sanders 67, Clinton 31

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 14: "Violence, Stupidity, and Circus Games" (March 13, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Countdowns:

Days until Super Tuesday 2: 2

Days until General Election: 240

REPUBLICANS

The Race Takes A Bloody Turn

At a Trump rally in Chicago, some protesters showed up. Trump supporters got angry and began fighting the protesters. A riot emerged and a few people, including two police officers, were injured. This is terrible, and for their part, all the other candidates blamed Mr. Trump for promoting violence and horrendous acts. But the worst part was how little Mr. Trump seemed to care. Later that day he tweeted out “Bernie Sanders is lying when he says his disruptors aren't told to go to my events. Be careful Bernie, or my supporters will go to yours!” No remorse for those injured, no promises to change his rhetoric, just threats to a candidate who, for his part, said that he thought Trump’s supporters deserved to see an honest politician. Of course, Trump decided to go home and not face the protesters, like the wimp he is.

Results Overview

In the past week, Donald Trump has won in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawai’i. Ted Cruz has won Guam and Idaho. Marco Rubio has won in DC, and in the Virgin Islands...

The Virgin Islands Caucus

A strategist representing “uncommitted” received the most votes of anyone at the Virgin Islands caucuses: In fact, the top 4 vote getters were “uncommitted”, followed by a ted Cruz delegate. All 9 of the VIs delegates, will remain uncommitted, as they believe no candidate is good enough.

Toxicity at Trump Events Continues

I’ve said enough about this; I know. But I’d like to shed light on some more atrocities:

At one event this week, a Trump supporter told an African-American woman to “Go back to Africa”, and another one screamed “Go back to Auschwitz.” Say what you will about leaving Trump unaccountable, but there is clearly some influence, This man has built a campaign on xenophobia, intolerance and fascism, and it has inspired much of his supporters’ blind racism. He’s taunted protesters left and right, telling one he “would punch him in the face himself” and telling another to “go back to his mommy”. Not only this, but he was endorsed by the KKK and David Duke. I know my goal is to remain neutral, but as a voice of reason, I feel a need to say:

A vote for Trump is a vote for devolution, intolerance, and inequality. A vote for Trump is a vote for isolating the US and losing all allies. A vote for Trump is a vote for war crimes, police brutality, and a vote for Trump is telling the bottom-feeders of America that they have won. Don’t feed the beast: Vote #NeverTrump.

DEMOCRATS

Results Guide

This week, Hillary Clinton won in Mississippi and the Northern Mariana Islands. Bernie Sanders won in Michigan after being behind by an average of 20% in the polls, completing the greatest upset since Eugene McCarthy’ s New Hampshire victory in 1968. Hillary walked with many more delegates, but an unexpected win in Michigan reinvigorated Sanders’ campaign and ruined the polling community.

Hillary On Nancy Reagan: Bad Pandering

After the death of Nancy Reagan, Hillary Clinton lauded the Reagans for starting the conversation about AIDS. This is so vastly incorrect, and such a terrible use of pandering to... “Reagan Democrats?”. In fact, the Reagans were notoriously latent on AIDS, considering it as a joke and trying not to talk about it or help anyone. Someone in the Clinton campaign should be fired over this.

FORECASTS:

FLORIDA: Trump 44, Rubio 21, Cruz 21, Kasich 12

ILLINOIS: Cruz 36, Trump 33, Kasich 20, Rubio 8

MISSOURI: Trump 38, Cruz 35, Kasich 14, Rubio 13

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS: Rubio 40, Kasich 33, Trump 20, Cruz 7

NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 46, Cruz 35, Kasich 16, Rubio 11

OHIO: Kasich 38, Trump 32, Cruz 21, Rubio 8

FLORIDA: Clinton 64, Sanders 35

ILLINOIS: Sanders 53, Clinton 46

MISSOURI: Clinton 52, Sanders 45

NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 63, Sanders 37

OHIO: Clinton 54, Sanders 44

Dear Marco,

Marco Rubio, please drop out. You’re embarrassing yourself. You’re not gonna win Florida. You’re going to finish in dead last near everywhere. You’re just helping Trump win. Marco, if you don’t drop out after Florida, you will have handed the nomination to Trump and you’ll look like a total dunce.

-The Electability Report

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 13: "Mythbusting" (March 6, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There have been a ton of results and important stories this week. I’ll help guide you through all of it. There’s also a debate right now on CNN in (Flint)!

Countdowns:

Days until Super Tuesday 2: 9

Days until General Election: 247

REPUBLICANS

A Results Guide

On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump came out with the greatest haul. He won 7 states to Ted Cruz’s 3 and Marco Rubio’s lone win, in Minnesota. Then on “Super Saturday”, Cruz and Trump each won two. This morning, Rubio won Puerto Rico. Currently, the delegate race is shaping up to be Trump vs. Cruz, with a sizable edge for Trump. Rubio is quite far back, but his 71% haul in Puerto Rico can’t have hurt.

Nancy Reagan Dies at 94

Former first lady Nancy Reagan died this morning at the age of 94. She was the wife of a beloved Republican icon, but in terms of the race, this shouldn’t make much of an impact. Rest in peace, Nancy Reagan.

The Fight Keeps Growing

Trump, Rubio, and Cruz keep arguing with each other and creating a great ruckus. This past week, Trump and Rubio had a long argument about the size of their “hands”. It was a peculiar show of... manliness? It’s very unclear as to why they decided to have this argument.

DEMOCRATS

A Results Guide

On Super Tuesday, Clinton won 8 states to Sanders’ 4. On Super Saturday, Bernie Sanders emerged with decisive victories in Kansas and Nebraska, while Hillary won Louisiana. Maine was recently called for Bernie, with 80% of returns having come in so far. Currently, Hillary has won 12 states, and Bernie has won 8. However, Hillary’s delegate lead, both pledged and unpledged (more on that later), is large and still growing.

SOME FORECASTS:

HAWAI’I: Rubio +18

IDAHO: Cruz +4

MICHIGAN: Trump +16

MISSISSIPPI: Trump +24

MICHIGAN: Clinton +16

MISSISSIPPI: Clinton +58

DC: Rubio +23

GUAM: [UNPLEDGED]

WYOMING: [UNPLEDGED]

NORTHERN MARIANAS: Clinton +37

POLITICAL MYTHBUSTING

I’ve been seeing a lot of misconceptions being passed around this election season, and I’m afraid certain things are being misreported. Let me clear some things up for you:

SUPERDELEGATES

The Democratic side has a unique concept called superdelegates. They are party officials who are not bound by any results. Hillary Clinton possesses an incredible lead among them.

THE REPORT: Superdelegates are “rigged” and “unfair” and are trying to take say away from the people and will eliminate any chance of Bernie winning the nomination.

THE TRUTH: Superdelegates are a long-established system that tries to help the Democrats have the more “presidential” nominee in the case of a close election. They can change their minds at any time, and at this point in 2008, Hillary led Barack by a lot. If Bernie indeed winds up with a popular vote majority, superdelegates will probably switch to support him.

THE DAMN COIN FLIPS

THE REPORT: At the Iowa Caucuses, 44 delegates were awarded, and 6 were decided by coin flips, all of which Hillary won.

THE TRUTH: These coin flips were used to decide statewide delegates, of which there are thousands. They are used when the amount of “Uncommitted” disrupts the amount of state delegates awarded. They didn’t make any noticeable difference.

BROKERED CONVENTIONS

First off, the right term is “contested convention”, not “brokered convention”

Secondly, everyone has been saying they’ll happen and Romney or Biden will be nominated or something.

THE TRUTH: It’s not going to happen. With only 2 candidates left, someone on the Democratic side is guaranteed a majority. On the Republican side, Trump should receive delegates. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably be close enough that everyone else withdraws, and thus he’ll get a majority. But theoretically, yes, anything could happen.

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just comment!