Sunday, May 1, 2016

Week 21: "Daunting Inevitability" (May 1, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 37
Days until General Election: 191


Trump Dominates the Acela Primary
This past Tuesday five states voted, and Trump hit 50% in all of them and won every delegate, except for a handful in Rhode Island. The closest state was Trump +30 in Connecticut. While these states may have been favorable to him, it’s hard to deny that he should be the nominee, especially considering how well his nearest rival, Ted Cruz, did. Senator Cruz finished in second in only Pennsylvania and failed to register 15% in Connecticut and Rhode Island. If this sends any signal, it’s that he is in a weaker state than previously and that Trump is probably inevitable.

Anti-Trump Forces Gear Up For Uphill Battle in Indiana
The “important” Indiana primary comes this Tuesday. 30 delegates will go to the statewide winner, so whoever wins will receive a needed boost. The Cruz forces boasted that they expected a huge win, but since then the polls have seemed to indicate this might not be the case. In fact, a Marist poll put Trump up 15 in a state that should be strong for Cruz. The Republican voters seem to be tired of this endless process and are willing to cope with a Trump nomination if it means unification. Hard to imagine from a state everyone was calling the “key to denying Trump a majority” just a week ago.

Most Unlikely Person Endorses Trump
Trump earned an endorsement from former Utah governor and 2012 presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, Jr. This is odd because Huntsman has a very moderate ideology, and is a Mormon, a group that notoriously shuns Trump. While Huntsman may not exactly be a party insider, this was a very surprising endorsement. However, it did seem as if Gov. Huntsman just wanted to get the process over with and give his party a better shot in November, so take even this with a grain of salt.

Cruz Announces VP Pick! The Excitement Stops There.
In a bizarre move to rejuvenate his campaign, Ted Cruz announced his VP pick would be Hewlett=Packard CEO and former presidential contender Carly Fiorina. There is no logical reason to make this pick, and the pundits were baffled. Fiorina is from California, which votes next month and is “sure to be crucial” (see also: Indiana). It’s also just a desperate move to get Cruz’s name into the headlines briefly. Aside from a brief September surge, Fiorina was largely irrelevant this campaign, finishing with 1 delegate, 1.9% in Iowa, and 4.1% in New Hampshire before dropping out. Fiorina has already been spotted singing a bizarre song to Cruz’s notorious daughters, and this may not be the last we hear from her, although it could be (see also: Sarah Palin).


Clinton Sweeps 4 of 5
In a stark contrast to Bernie’s run of caucus victories a month ago, Hillary has now won 5 of her last 6 contests. If she wasn’t inevitable before, she sure is now. There is little to no path to victory for the Sanders campaign, who are even losing the grip on upcoming states thought to be favorable terrain, like Kentucky and Oregon. Calls for Bernie to drop out are growing in number, and he’s basically admitted at this point that he’s just an activist candidate.

It’s about time I had a look at some of America’s less loved parties. Currently in the Green party, activist, physician and 2012 party nominee Jill Stein is leading by a lot, having won 13 of 14 contest (William Kreml won his home state of South Carolina). The Green party primaries and conventions will continue until their convention in Houston in early August. The aggressively liberal party has earned ballot access in most states, but are not expected to be a major factor any time soon.

The Libertarian convention in May will likely come to a three-way race between New Mexico Governor and 2012 nominee Gary Johnson, businessman Austin Peterson, and tech developer and possible criminal John McAfee. Johnson is expected to win, but the pre-convention debate is the usual method for selecting the nominee, and anyone could win that and skew the results. The party has been suggested as a potential alternative for disaffected conservatives, potentially in the West. It will remain to be seen if this is a legitimate suggestion or an odd libertarian fantasy.


May 3
Hillary Clinton: 52.2%
Bernie Sanders: 46.5%

May 7
Hillary Clinton 70%
Bernie Sanders 27.7%

May 3
Donald Trump: 47.6%
Ted Cruz: 34%
John Kasich: 15.4%

Chances of Winning the Nomination
Clinton 99%
Sanders 1%

Trump 96%
Convention Alternative 4%

Thank you for reading! Make sure to check the blog for coverage of the Indiana primary and more!

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