Week 32: "Donald Trump Told A Really Hilarious Joke" (July 31, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 100

The DNC!

And this week, the Democrats countered with their own convention. Facing a 3-point Trump convention bump, Democrats had a reason to be slightly worried. They did have an advantage in that their entire party showed up (the same cannot be said for the Republicans), and objectively that entire party did a good job. It wasn’t a smooth ride - DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz agreed to resign, and was then heckled endlessly - but most people, Democrats and Republicans, agree that it helped unify the party and most speeches were great. Hillary’s own speech wasn’t amazing, but it did its job, and other speakers like Tim Kaine, the Obamas, Bill Clinton, and Cory Booker were very good. The nominating speech was, of course, delivered by Bernie Sanders.

Another important speech was Michael Bloomberg’s endorsement of Clinton, an important moment for swaying independents. The best received speech, however, was that of Khizr Khan, father of a Muslim soldier killed while serving in the military.

Hillary Endorsed by Houston Chronicle and Washington Post

In an unprecedented move, the Houston Chronicle, Texas’ biggest newspaper, endorsed Hillary Clinton. It’s a lot earlier than most newspapers would endorse, of course. Their reasoning for this was claiming Trump is a “danger to the republic”. The Washington Post similarly endorsed Clinton, writing a long essay of reasons why Trump shouldn’t be president. Read it here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-is-a-unique-threat-to-american-democracy/2016/07/22/a6d823cc-4f4f-11e6-aa14-e0c1087f7583_story.html?tid=a_inl

WikiLeaks Hacks DNC, Releases Emails

WikiLeaks’ hackers released thousands of DNC emails, a few of which insulted Bernie Sanders. Vox.com explains it:

“Most of the emails showed routine campaign planning among senior DNC officials. The emails show some evidence of unseemly behavior by Democratic Party officials and at least one case where DNC officials discussed trying to undermine the Sanders. That has reopened a long-running debate about whether the DNC — which is supposed to be neutral during a primary campaign — was too favorable toward Hillary Clinton.”

WikiLeaks has been explicitly pro-Trump so far this election, but I doubt these emails will affect much, seeing how little was even in them.

Some More Outrageous Stuff Trump Did

-Trump threatened to skip the debates later this season because the schedules were “unfair”. He claimed that a debate overlapping with an NFL game was reason enough for him to warrant not showing up.

-Trump’s response to Khizr Khan’s speech was to comment on how Khan’s mother was “not allowed” to speak. I don’t have to mention that this is despicable and racist, but I will anyway.

-Following the DNC hack, Trump “jokingly” told Russia to find Clinton’s emails. Considering that Trump has been endorsed by Putin, this was not met as a joke, and even if it was a joke, it is neither funny nor reassuring.

-Besides Putin, Kim Jong Un also endorsed Trump.

Senate Preview #3

CONNECTICUT:

70-year-old Michael Blumenthal is seeking re-election. His opponent is Dan Carter, a State Representative. The election should be very easy for Blumenthal to win.

Rating: Safe D

FLORIDA:

Finally, a fun race. This election was supposed to be a pure tossup when incumbent Marco Rubio announced that he wouldn’t be seeking re-election. However, Rubio recently announced that he is running, and thus will make the race easier for the Republicans to win. His opponent will be either Alan Grayson, U.S. Representative with many scandals, or Pat Murphy, a more mild-mannered Representative. The race currently leans toward Rubio, but depending on the nominee and the presidential race, that could change.

Rating: Lean R

GEORGIA:

Johnny Isakson should very easily win re-election in Georgia, no matter how close the presidential race is. The Democratic nominee, Jim Barksdale, has no political experience and Isakson is very popular.

Rating: Safe R

This Week In World Elections

Next week is the Sao Toméan presidential election’s second round and the Thai constitutional referendum. I’ll go more into detail on them next week (both are scheduled for August 7th).

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 29: "Brexit" (June 26, 2016)

Dear Readers,

THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEWSLETTER FOR A FEW WEEKS, I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 142

TRUMP

Weekly List of Things Republican Elected Officials Are Saying About Their Nominee:

-Rep. Mia Love (R-UT) sees no reason to attend the convention next month.

-Columnist George Will switched parties because of Trump

-Former Bush cabinet members Henry Paulson and Brent Scowcroft are voting for Hillary Clinton

BREXIT!

So, the Brexit did indeed happen (I’ll go into this more later). Trump, naturally, was going to Scotland the next day, so one would imagine he’d be congratulating UKIP and the Brexiteers, right? In his press conference, he only talked about his golf course, not even mentioning Brexit. On his Twitter, he decided to thank Scotland for their leave votes, when, of course, remain swept all the counties in Scotland. Adding this to Trump’s only learning about Brexit in the past few days and still not knowing who Boris Johnson is, it’s clear Trump’s foreign policy is flawless.

Trump Fires Lewandowski

This week, Donald Trump fired his longtime campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Lewandowski was accused of assaulting a Breitbart reporter earlier this year, and his style of campaign managing may not have been very productive, but it’s a shocking move by the Trump team. Lewandowski was immediately hired by CNN, of course, so that shows how much Trump saying “you’re fired” is worth.

CLINTON

House Democrats Hold Sit-In on Gun Control

To add to Senate democrats’ filibuster last week, the house democrats stayed in the building for 24 hours, demanding a bill on gun control. They failed in their efforts, of course, but the publicity can only help their cause. Hillary, of course, has been in support of congressional democrats through their tricky efforts, especially recently. The sit-in didn’t affect any votes, as congress was meant to be closed for most of the time anyway.

Sanders Will Vote for Clinton

Bernie Sanders has made another step toward party unity, telling a reporter he will vote for Clinton. The only steps left are to drop out and endorse Clinton (because in the 2016 election season, pledging your vote isn’t the same as an endorsement!) He maintains he’ll push his platform to the convention, but in the meantime Sanders voters are returning to Clinton, as recent polls indicate.

This Week In World Elections

United Kingdom: The results of Brexit are in, and Leave earned a solid victory. Prime Minister David Cameron has already announced his intent to step down, meaning that Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London and Donald Trump look-alike, has a great chance of becoming the next Prime Minister. Some voters are already regretting their decisions, with interviews with Leave voters who “didn’t think it’d seriously happen” floating around. This referendum is non-binding, and it’s up to the next Prime Minister as to what to do.

Iceland: The Icelandic presidential election is today. The main candidates are:

-author Andri Snær Magnason

-editor/former Prime minister Davíð Oddsson

-historian Guðni Thorlacius Jóhannesson

-entrepreneur Halla Tómasdóttir

-truck driver Sturla Jónsson

Polls show Jóhannesson with a large lead (at least since incumbent Olafur Ragnar Grímsson decided not to run), and results seem to back this up. Jóhanneson has never held public office, but the presidency is a largely ceremonial post (with more power in the prime minister). This election was muddled when president Grímsson (a five-term incumbent!) was implicated in the Panama Papers.

Spain: The election for congress and senate is tomorrow, and the People’s Party retains their lead. Unidos Podemos has safely moved into second place as well.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 22: "Trump Secures the Nomination" (May 8, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a great torrent of news, and the avalanche of Trump has progressed one more step. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 30

Days until General Election: 184

REPUBLICANS

Trump Wins Indiana

Trump needed a big win in Indiana, and by that me (and most pundits) meant a margin of 15 points. Instead, Trump won by 17%, getting 53% of the vote, and causing his two opponents to drop out of the race. Kasich may have basically abandoned the state, but his 7% was brutally embarrassing, and Cruz basically needed a win to remain viable. Instead, Trump swept all 57 delegates, securing the nomination.

Cruz and Kasich Drop Out

Following those pathetic results, John Kasich and Ted Cruz both suspended their campaigns. Cruz dropped out on primary night, accidentally elbowing his wife in the head on his way off the stage. Kasich dropped out the next day, but for a single day he was 4th place in delegates in a 2-man race. This also makes Carly Fiorina the shortest-lived VP candidate since Thomas Eagleton. Fiorina also set a personal speed record for destroying an organization, topping her previous 6 years with just 6 days!

Party Fails to Line Up Behind Trump

Various party officials have declined to endorse Trump. The presidents Bush have said they won’t vote in this election and will not even talk about it. The third Bush, Jeb (remember him?) has also declined to support Trump, with him and Lindsey Graham becoming the first of the Republican candidates to do so. Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse has refused to support Trump, calling for a third party, although he says he himself won’t do it. Bill Kristol, conservative columnist, and Karl Rove changed their party registrations. The highest-ranking Republican official in the nation, Paul Ryan, also joined this crowd, causing Sarah Palin (Why do we have to keep talking about her?) to begin supporting his primary opponent. Another few who won’t endorse Trump:

Joe Scarborough, Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Glenn Beck, Mitt Romney (probably), Fmr. House Maj. Ldr. Tom DeLay, Sen. Slade Gorton, Rob McKenna, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, VT gubernatorial candidate Phil Scott, Gov. Charlie Baker, Rep. Bob Dold, Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner, Lachlan Markey of the Washington Free Beacon, Rep. Justin Amash, Sen. Norm Coleman, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Fmr. RNC Chairman Mel Martinez, Ron Paul, George Pataki, Reid Ribble, Scott Rigell, Rep. Mark Sanford, Charlie Sykes, Christine Todd Whitman, Sen. Dean Heller, Larry Hogan, Brian Sandoval (maybe), Alan Keyes, Gov. Tom Ridge, Rep. Richard Hanna, Rep. Bob Inglis, Mark Levin, and many more.

Now, anyone who cares what the “party elites” have to say is probably not voting for Trump anyway, but Ron Paul and Justin Amash from the libertarian wing, Alan Keyes and Rove from the extreme wing and the standard Whitman, Romney, Ryan party establishment show that there is diversity among the dissenters.

DEMOCRATS

Sanders Earns Surprise Indiana Win

Despite an early lead by Hillary, and Hillary easily being favored, Sen. Sanders won Indiana by over 5 points. He rode a surprise win in Indianapolis to victory, although his shortcomings in southern Indiana raise some doubt for Kentucky on May 17. “Momentum” has literally no effect at this stage, but it’s interesting to see Cruz and Kasich surrender as the Democratic race is alive and heavily fighting.

Outlook

Even with his Indiana win, Sanders needs to win 67% of remaining delegates to earn a majority of delegates. However, superdelegates would likely still deny him the nomination, as, even in that scenario, he would still have less raw votes than Hillary Clinton. Clinton has basically won the nomination, barring a major scandal or indictment.

FORECASTS

May 10

West Virginia

Bernie Sanders 42%, Hillary Clinton 30%, Keith R. Judd 17%

Nebraska (meaningless, no delegates)

Bernie Sanders 54%, Hillary Clinton 44%

May 10

Nebraska

Trump 77%

West Virginia

Trump 100.8%

ELECTREPORT GENERAL ELECTION MAP v1:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MwB3J

Thank you for reading!

Week 20: "The Northeast Decides" (April 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 44

Days until General Election: 198

REPUBLICANS

New York Results

... And the results are in and it was a brutal landslide! Trump hit 60% and took 90 of 95 delegates, winning all but one congressional district. The multi-billionaire’s one weak spot was the ultra-wealthy island of Manhattan, which is so painfully ironic. Cruz failed to win a delegate, no doubt thanks to his “New York values” comment. Kasich took his first delegates in over a month by winning 5.

State of the Race

At this point, neither Cruz nor Kasich can get a majority of pledged delegates. This doesn’t mean it will be easy for Trump to get a majority: he needs about 63% of remaining delegates, including winner-take-all states like Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska in which Cruz is favored. While Trump is likely to win when uncommitted delegates are factored in, the path to stopping him runs through two states...

Indiana: Cruz and Trump are about even from limited data here. Whoever wins the state gets a big delegate benefit, and a Wisconsin-like win, or even a slightly better prepared Missouri could reap benefits for Cruz.

California: The biggest state doesn’t come until June 7, and Trump should win, but if it’s anywhere close, expect to see anti-Trump forces bank everything here.

DEMOCRATS

New York Results: This Time It’s Personal

As expected, Hillary won. CNN exit polls initially showed a close 52-48 race. However, in the end it wound up 58-42. A win here prefaces good things to come this Tuesday for the Clinton campaign. Bernie won almost all of upstate New York, but Hillary’s strength in NYC proper and urban areas like Buffalo and Rochester let her easily hang on for the win in her adopted home state. As she said in her victory speech, “This time it’s personal”.

State of the Race

Clinton holds a nearly insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, and an incredible lead in superdelegates. In order for Bernie to win he’d have to get up to 80% in California and break even the rest of the way, which is nearly impossible. And even then, because of his strength in caucuses, Hillary would maintain the popular vote lead and retain enough superdelegates to win anyway.

FORECASTS

April 26

Connecticut: Hillary 56, Bernie 42

Delaware: Hillary 59, Bernie 39

Maryland: Hillary 63, Bernie 36

Pennsylvania: Hillary 54, Bernie 46

Rhode Island: Bernie 52, Hillary 47

April 26

Connecticut: Trump 44, Kasich 33, Cruz 21

Delaware: Trump 52, Kasich 25, Cruz 21

Maryland: Trump 39, Kasich 34, Cruz 26

Pennsylvania: Trump 43, Cruz 29, Kasich 25

Rhode Island: Trump 57, Kasich 28, Cruz 12

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Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage (and previews of the upcoming slew of primaries).

Why You Should Care About the Wisconsin Primary

As you may or may not know, the Wisconsin primary is approaching fast. There's been quite some buzz about Wisconsin but why, exactly, is it important?

DEMOCRATS

The Democratic race is an exceedingly close one, with Sanders having a 5 point edge or so. Will this be the deciding factor? No. Sanders should have the edge here, but considering the nature of the race, for him to stay on pace he might have to get about 65% of the vote, which is very, very unlikely. That being said, if Hillary wins, Sanders may have no justification to stay in the race as states like New York and Maryland draw closer.

REPUBLICANS

This is where it's really important. The "Stop Trump" movement is hedging it's bets on Wisconsin, and for now it appears Cruz will likely win. Because of the nature of the delegate allocation, however, this is a very important race for the Stop Trump movement to do well in. The winner of the state will receive 18 delegates, and the winner of each Congressional District will receive 3. Luckily for Cruz and Kasich, their support is very divided. Upstate Wisconsin is a strong base for Cruz, while Milwaukee and its suburbs like Kasich. Because of this, Trump could get 35% of the vote, but win just one or two CDs, and come out with a low amount of delegates. If Trump gets no delegates, which would be unlikely but not impossible, it will become increasingly likely he will not be able to reach a first-ballot majority.

Week 14: "Violence, Stupidity, and Circus Games" (March 13, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Countdowns:

Days until Super Tuesday 2: 2

Days until General Election: 240

REPUBLICANS

The Race Takes A Bloody Turn

At a Trump rally in Chicago, some protesters showed up. Trump supporters got angry and began fighting the protesters. A riot emerged and a few people, including two police officers, were injured. This is terrible, and for their part, all the other candidates blamed Mr. Trump for promoting violence and horrendous acts. But the worst part was how little Mr. Trump seemed to care. Later that day he tweeted out “Bernie Sanders is lying when he says his disruptors aren't told to go to my events. Be careful Bernie, or my supporters will go to yours!” No remorse for those injured, no promises to change his rhetoric, just threats to a candidate who, for his part, said that he thought Trump’s supporters deserved to see an honest politician. Of course, Trump decided to go home and not face the protesters, like the wimp he is.

Results Overview

In the past week, Donald Trump has won in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawai’i. Ted Cruz has won Guam and Idaho. Marco Rubio has won in DC, and in the Virgin Islands...

The Virgin Islands Caucus

A strategist representing “uncommitted” received the most votes of anyone at the Virgin Islands caucuses: In fact, the top 4 vote getters were “uncommitted”, followed by a ted Cruz delegate. All 9 of the VIs delegates, will remain uncommitted, as they believe no candidate is good enough.

Toxicity at Trump Events Continues

I’ve said enough about this; I know. But I’d like to shed light on some more atrocities:

At one event this week, a Trump supporter told an African-American woman to “Go back to Africa”, and another one screamed “Go back to Auschwitz.” Say what you will about leaving Trump unaccountable, but there is clearly some influence, This man has built a campaign on xenophobia, intolerance and fascism, and it has inspired much of his supporters’ blind racism. He’s taunted protesters left and right, telling one he “would punch him in the face himself” and telling another to “go back to his mommy”. Not only this, but he was endorsed by the KKK and David Duke. I know my goal is to remain neutral, but as a voice of reason, I feel a need to say:

A vote for Trump is a vote for devolution, intolerance, and inequality. A vote for Trump is a vote for isolating the US and losing all allies. A vote for Trump is a vote for war crimes, police brutality, and a vote for Trump is telling the bottom-feeders of America that they have won. Don’t feed the beast: Vote #NeverTrump.

DEMOCRATS

Results Guide

This week, Hillary Clinton won in Mississippi and the Northern Mariana Islands. Bernie Sanders won in Michigan after being behind by an average of 20% in the polls, completing the greatest upset since Eugene McCarthy’ s New Hampshire victory in 1968. Hillary walked with many more delegates, but an unexpected win in Michigan reinvigorated Sanders’ campaign and ruined the polling community.

Hillary On Nancy Reagan: Bad Pandering

After the death of Nancy Reagan, Hillary Clinton lauded the Reagans for starting the conversation about AIDS. This is so vastly incorrect, and such a terrible use of pandering to... “Reagan Democrats?”. In fact, the Reagans were notoriously latent on AIDS, considering it as a joke and trying not to talk about it or help anyone. Someone in the Clinton campaign should be fired over this.

FORECASTS:

FLORIDA: Trump 44, Rubio 21, Cruz 21, Kasich 12

ILLINOIS: Cruz 36, Trump 33, Kasich 20, Rubio 8

MISSOURI: Trump 38, Cruz 35, Kasich 14, Rubio 13

NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS: Rubio 40, Kasich 33, Trump 20, Cruz 7

NORTH CAROLINA: Trump 46, Cruz 35, Kasich 16, Rubio 11

OHIO: Kasich 38, Trump 32, Cruz 21, Rubio 8

FLORIDA: Clinton 64, Sanders 35

ILLINOIS: Sanders 53, Clinton 46

MISSOURI: Clinton 52, Sanders 45

NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 63, Sanders 37

OHIO: Clinton 54, Sanders 44

Dear Marco,

Marco Rubio, please drop out. You’re embarrassing yourself. You’re not gonna win Florida. You’re going to finish in dead last near everywhere. You’re just helping Trump win. Marco, if you don’t drop out after Florida, you will have handed the nomination to Trump and you’ll look like a total dunce.

-The Electability Report

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!