Week 25: "1,237" (May 29, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 9

Days until General Election: 163

TRUMP

Trump OFFICIALLY Captures Nomination

It’s been a fun ride, but this past week Trump finally hit the 1,237 delegates he needed to win the nomination. We’ve come from 17 candidates down to just one, and who figured Trump would be that one? This newsletter is dedicated to Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz, who just officially lost. Give them a hand!

Trump Thinks He Can Win CA, NY

The Trump campaign released a map today showing they were targeting California and Trump’s home state of New York. Let that sink in for a moment. California last voted Republican in the 1988 Bush-Dukakis landslide, and New York went Republican in the 1984 Reaganslide. And yet in this era of extreme polarization, Trump thinks he can win those states. Now, I have about as much of a chance of taking those states as he does, but that’s not what this is about.

What this is about is Trump letting people know he’s going to be “tough”. Not even he, the man of ultimate belief in himself, thinks he could carry California or New York. What’s important is sending a signal to his supporters that he’s so great, he can keep California and New York in play because he’s the best and that’s how he’s going to run. Now, if he pours money into these states, it will be a total waste and we should seriously question his judgment. But this is likely a signal, and it’s a powerful sentiment.

Add Another to the VP Shortlist: Corker Gains Attention

Another Republican has joined the ranks of those looking at serious VP speculation. That man is establishment Senator from Tennessee Bob Corker. Corker may be uninspiring, from a safe Republican state, and 63, but that didn’t stop Dick Cheney, did it? Many still think someone like Brown or Gingrich will still get the call, with Corker being pushed to Secretary of State, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the Tennessean.

Trump Wins Washington, Cracking 75%

The Washington Republican primary gave Trump his highest mark so far, at 75.8%. With Trump now being the official nominee (see earlier), it’s all trivial at this point, but it’s interesting to see that Trump was able to hit the typical landslide margins presumptive nominees get in the second/third week of their time as nominee. With Trump, that was never a sure thing, but it seems to be now. No more Republican primaries are left until June 7, and Trump may even hit 90% in some of those.

CLINTON

America: Not “Sick and Tired of Hearing About [Clinton]’s Damn Emails”?

A report was released this week condemned Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server, which I’m sure we’re all bored of. In case you aren’t, here’s some information. One important thing to note was that the report didn’t just find fault with Clinton’s use of a private email server: it also implicated former Secretary of State Colin Powell in mishandling of emails.

NBCNews: “The audit found that the non-compliance over personal email went beyond Clinton, and that former Secretary of State Colin Powell, a Republican, also failed to preserve government-related emails when he was secretary of state.

The State Department asked Powell to try to receive relevant emails from his internet provider, but ‘as of May 2016 the Department has not received a response’ from Powell, the audit said.”

Bernie Sanders has made reference to this audit, which does say that Clinton failed to comply with federal ruling. It does annoy me that the Republicans are getting behind their divisive nominee, but Sanders insists on making this a real fight, and it’ll surely damage Clinton in November.

JOHNSON

Libertarians Count, Too....

This past weekend was the Libertarian Convention. There was a debate on Saturday and voting Sunday.

The debate:

Five candidates made the debate. Gary Johnson, John McAfee, Austin Peterson, Darryl Perry, and Marc Allan Feldman. Gary Johnson, former Governor of New Mexico, pushed his standard libertarian-conservative rhetoric and seemed almost sane. Software developer and possible murderer McAfee wasn’t very impressive. Peterson seemed the most presidential, but also seemed like a 16-year-old doing a Marco Rubio impersonation. Darryl Perry, the “grassroots” choice, looked and sounded insane. His notable moment was when he ripped up a dollar bill onstage and then looked proud and smug. Feldman threw out a bunch of one-liners and looked too proud of himself, but nobody cared.

The voting:

Johnson got 49% on the first ballot, and was subsequently elected. His preferred VP choice, Fmr. Gov. Bill Weld of Massachusetts, also got 49% and was also elected on the second ballot, with a tough challenge from Larry Sharpe.

That leaves the Libertarian ticket as Johnson/Weld, which would have more experience than Trump/Corker by a longshot, which is amazing to behold.

This Week In World Elections

Nothing happened this week proper, but here’s a preview of next week’s elections.

Macedonia: The parliamentary election will happen, with Nikola Gruevski’s VMRO-DPMNE (yeah, that’s an acronym) seeking to retain their plurality over Zoran Zaev’s SDSM and Ali Ahmeti’s BDI. There have been numerous protests against Gruevski over the past few years, and this election was a peace offering to them. This election could get very heated...

Peru: Former president (and tyrannical dictator) Alberto Fujimori may have been exiled, but his daughter, Keiko, ran for president this year, and secured a heavy plurality in the first round. However, a second round was required, so Fujimori is going against Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, who got 20% less than Fujimori in the first round of balloting.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 22: "Trump Secures the Nomination" (May 8, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a great torrent of news, and the avalanche of Trump has progressed one more step. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 30

Days until General Election: 184

REPUBLICANS

Trump Wins Indiana

Trump needed a big win in Indiana, and by that me (and most pundits) meant a margin of 15 points. Instead, Trump won by 17%, getting 53% of the vote, and causing his two opponents to drop out of the race. Kasich may have basically abandoned the state, but his 7% was brutally embarrassing, and Cruz basically needed a win to remain viable. Instead, Trump swept all 57 delegates, securing the nomination.

Cruz and Kasich Drop Out

Following those pathetic results, John Kasich and Ted Cruz both suspended their campaigns. Cruz dropped out on primary night, accidentally elbowing his wife in the head on his way off the stage. Kasich dropped out the next day, but for a single day he was 4th place in delegates in a 2-man race. This also makes Carly Fiorina the shortest-lived VP candidate since Thomas Eagleton. Fiorina also set a personal speed record for destroying an organization, topping her previous 6 years with just 6 days!

Party Fails to Line Up Behind Trump

Various party officials have declined to endorse Trump. The presidents Bush have said they won’t vote in this election and will not even talk about it. The third Bush, Jeb (remember him?) has also declined to support Trump, with him and Lindsey Graham becoming the first of the Republican candidates to do so. Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse has refused to support Trump, calling for a third party, although he says he himself won’t do it. Bill Kristol, conservative columnist, and Karl Rove changed their party registrations. The highest-ranking Republican official in the nation, Paul Ryan, also joined this crowd, causing Sarah Palin (Why do we have to keep talking about her?) to begin supporting his primary opponent. Another few who won’t endorse Trump:

Joe Scarborough, Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Glenn Beck, Mitt Romney (probably), Fmr. House Maj. Ldr. Tom DeLay, Sen. Slade Gorton, Rob McKenna, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, VT gubernatorial candidate Phil Scott, Gov. Charlie Baker, Rep. Bob Dold, Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner, Lachlan Markey of the Washington Free Beacon, Rep. Justin Amash, Sen. Norm Coleman, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Fmr. RNC Chairman Mel Martinez, Ron Paul, George Pataki, Reid Ribble, Scott Rigell, Rep. Mark Sanford, Charlie Sykes, Christine Todd Whitman, Sen. Dean Heller, Larry Hogan, Brian Sandoval (maybe), Alan Keyes, Gov. Tom Ridge, Rep. Richard Hanna, Rep. Bob Inglis, Mark Levin, and many more.

Now, anyone who cares what the “party elites” have to say is probably not voting for Trump anyway, but Ron Paul and Justin Amash from the libertarian wing, Alan Keyes and Rove from the extreme wing and the standard Whitman, Romney, Ryan party establishment show that there is diversity among the dissenters.

DEMOCRATS

Sanders Earns Surprise Indiana Win

Despite an early lead by Hillary, and Hillary easily being favored, Sen. Sanders won Indiana by over 5 points. He rode a surprise win in Indianapolis to victory, although his shortcomings in southern Indiana raise some doubt for Kentucky on May 17. “Momentum” has literally no effect at this stage, but it’s interesting to see Cruz and Kasich surrender as the Democratic race is alive and heavily fighting.

Outlook

Even with his Indiana win, Sanders needs to win 67% of remaining delegates to earn a majority of delegates. However, superdelegates would likely still deny him the nomination, as, even in that scenario, he would still have less raw votes than Hillary Clinton. Clinton has basically won the nomination, barring a major scandal or indictment.

FORECASTS

May 10

West Virginia

Bernie Sanders 42%, Hillary Clinton 30%, Keith R. Judd 17%

Nebraska (meaningless, no delegates)

Bernie Sanders 54%, Hillary Clinton 44%

May 10

Nebraska

Trump 77%

West Virginia

Trump 100.8%

ELECTREPORT GENERAL ELECTION MAP v1:

http://www.270towin.com/maps/MwB3J

Thank you for reading!

Week 15: "Farewell, Little Marco" (March 20, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and bonus content) is available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 79

Days until General Election: 233

REPUBLICANS

Results

Five states and the Northern Mariana Islands voted this week on the Republican side. The important winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio were split, with John Kasich taking his home state of Ohio and Donald Trump taking Marco Rubio’s home state, Florida. Trump also won Missouri, North Carolina, Illinois, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Kasich declared Ohio a victory for him, even though he needs to win 115% of the remaining delegates (an impossible task) to earn a majority.

Rubio Finally Drops Out

After coming out of his home state 20 points back, winning only one primary, Marco Rubio called it quits. He also said he was “done with politics”. It’s been a fun campaign for Mr. Rubio, starting from nowhere and by the end, well...

LITTLE MARCO’S CAMPAIGN HIGHLIGHTS

-Donald Trump calling him out for sweating too much

-A last-minute Iowa surge that sparked momentum...

-...which was immediately eliminated when Chris Christie destroyed him at a debate for repeating himself

-Insulting the size of Donald Trump’s “hands”

-Winning one state

-Being dubbed “Little Marco”

DEMOCRATS

Results

The same five states (but not the NMI) voted on Tuesday for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton completed a sweep, including unlikely wins in Missouri and Illinois. In the end, Bernie only came in ~80 delegates behind, but it was an embarrassing results when the Sanders campaign had hoped for a minimum of two victories.

FORECASTS:

AMERICAN SAMOA: Cruz 38, Trump 33, Kasich 26

ARIZONA: Trump 43, Cruz 37, Kasich 16

UTAH: Cruz 54, Kasich 27, Trump 14

March 22:

ARIZONA: Clinton 57, Sanders 41

IDAHO: Sanders 64, Clinton 34

UTAH: Sanders 68, Clinton 29

March 26:

ALASKA: Sanders 59, Clinton 39

HAWAI’I: Sanders 54, Clinton 40

WASHINGTON: Sanders 67, Clinton 31

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 11: "Scalia, South Carolina, and Much, Much More" (February 21, 2016)

Dear Readers,

This week has been insane.  I’ll help you make sense of all that’s happened so far.

Countdowns:

Days until NV Republican Caucus: 2

Days until SC Democratic Primary: 6

Days until Super Tuesday: 9

Days until General Election: 261

REPUBLICANS

Scalia’s Death: The Implications

As you’ve probably heard, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died this past week. The very conservative justice was 79, and died on a quail hunting trip with a good friend at his ranch in Texas. The Senate Republicans have announced they won’t allow any of Obama’s nominees to get through, citing an unwritten rule improperly. The “rule” is that in the last 6 months of a president’s term, you don’t accept any nominations. However, there are 11 months left in Obama’s term.

South Carolina Results

Surprise, surprise. Donald Trump won South Carolina. Finishing with a decent 32%, he claimed victory and all 50 delegates. Marco Rubio won a hard-fought second place from Ted Cruz. The two were separated by only 1,000 votes. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and Ben Carson all underwhelmingly finished in the 7% range. The potential implications are good for Trump and Rubio. Cruz should do well in Southern evangelical states, but a third-place finish here isn’t what I’d call “good”.

Jeb! Drops Out

Jeb Bush dropped out following a disastrous South Carolina performance. He hasn’t endorsed yet, but conventional wisdom says he endorses Rubio. This didn’t come as a surprise to many, but it’s a little sad to see him put so much effort into a state and wind up .6% away from last. (Sound familiar, Mike Huckabee?) A good New York Times piece shows that Jeb’s voters are ideologically/demographically the most similar to Rubio’s, but we shall see.

“Not Christian”

This week, Pope Francis declared that Donald Trump “wasn’t a Christian” because of his desire to build a wall. Trump replied by saying, and I quote, “If and when the Vatican is attacked by ISIS, I can promise you that the Pope would have only wished and prayed that Donald Trump would have been President...” This may not have have had a huge impact in Protestant, evangelical South Carolina, but in states like Massachusetts, it will.

DEMOCRATS

Scalia’s Death: The Implications

With a sitting president, the Democrats should be able to get their choice for succession easily, right? No. Wrong. Obama will, thus, probably use his nominees to make a statement and help his fellow Democrats in November. Expected nominees include Loretta Lynch and Sri Srinivasan. This is sure to be a hotly contested argument in the coming weeks, especially once we get to the general election.

Nevada Results

Hillary Clinton narrowly beat Bernie Sanders in Nevada. Bernie had decent odds of winning, and the campaign should be troubled by this. With a presumed blowout in South Carolina (more on that later), Bernie’s momentum doesn’t look so good. However, this result wasn’t unexpected (Gravis’ poll predicted the result exactly), so we’ll see what the repercussions are.

Personal, Unscientific, Nevada Forecasts:

Donald Trump - 37.1%

Marco Rubio - 27.2%

Ted Cruz - 21.6%

John Kasich - 8.4%

Ben Carson - 5.7% (if he doesn’t drop out)

Personal, Unscientific, South Carolina Forecasts:

Hillary Clinton - 61.5%

Bernie Sanders - 38.5%

Things to Look For:

-Rubio’s support among Hispanics

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just comment!

Week 10: "Moving South and West" (February 14, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the New Hampshire results come out, but South Carolina and Nevada are coming! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Countdowns:

Days until SC Primaries: 5 for Republicans, 12 for Democrats

Days until NV Caucuses: 5 for Democrats, 8 for Republicans

Days until Super Tuesday: 15

Days until General Election: 267

REPUBLICANS

New Hampshire Results

Let’s get it out of our systems. Yes, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. No surprise there. The surprise was second place, won by John Kasich. This sparked a lot of momentum. The main story was how much Marco Rubio dropped. His atrocious debate killed his momentum and he struggled to reach 10%.

Another Dropout Trio

After New Hampshire, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out. They both failed to reach the 10% threshold required for receiving delegates. Meanwhile, notable 0% getter Jim Gilmore finally decided to hang up his aspirations. Many wondered, “Why now, Jim?” But nobody cared enough to actually ask. Farewell to all three.

Has Trump Gone Mad?

There was another debate! (Really. ANOTHER.) This one featured intense amounts of argument and clash. Trump insulted George W. Bush, leaving Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to defend the popular (among Republicans) former president. Trump played aggressive and many question his strategy. Ted Cruz faded away and made no real impression. Ben Carson fell asleep (again) and John Kasich was clearly tired of being the only moderate voice.

DEMOCRATS

New Hampshire Results

New Hampshire has really Felt the Bern©. Bernie Sanders earned 60% of the vote, dwarfing Hillary’s 38%. Nobody expected this large of a margin of victory, and the Sanders camp was very pleased.

Upcoming Events:

Feb 20: South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Personal, Unscientific, Nevada Forecasts:

Hillary Clinton 53.8%

Bernie Sanders 46.2%

Personal, Unscientific, South Carolina Forecasts:

Donald Trump - 34.5%

Ted Cruz - 24.1%

Marco Rubio - 14.7%

John Kasich - 11%

Jeb Bush - 10.1%

Ben Carson - 5.6%

Things to Look For:

-How real is the Kasich surge?

-The order Rubio, Kasich, and Jeb finish in

-How good is Cruz’s ground game (How much does he overperform by)

-How well Bernie does. A recent poll shows them tied!

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to Saturday’s results! And lastly, HAPPY PRESIDENT’S DAY!