Why You Should Care About the Indiana Primary

The Indiana primary is tonight, and it could be very important.

DEMOCRATS
This could be a very close race; If Bernie were to somehow win, which isn't totally out of the question, it would raise bad memories of Michigan. On the flip side, if Hillary's margin is double-digits or more, it's hard to see Bernie retaining any momentum.

REPUBLICANS
It's highly likely at this point that Trump will win. But if Cruz pulls off an upset, he'll take the 30 statewide delegates, and some of the congressional district delegates, so any win makes a difference, no matter how small. At this point, I would project Trump to receive 48 delegates to Cruz's 9. But a cruz win could get him 45 to 12 with just an extra fraction of the vote. If Cruz wins, there could be legitimate concern about Trump getting to 1237. Otherwise, Trump should be just fine.

Why You Should Care About the Delaware and Rhode Island Primaries

These states may not be close together, but they're both tiny and the primaries are today, so I'm going to combine them.

Delaware

DEMOCRATS
Hillary should easily win here. Bernie could try to keep the margin in low single digits, and it's likely to be closer than Maryland, but there's no real competition here. There hasn't been a ton of polling, but it all points to Clinton +13 or so

REPUBLICANS
The state is winner-take-all and without a doubt Trump will win. He's been seen nearing 60% in polls, and if it were even 20 points closer than that, it wouldn't matter since it's winner-take-all.

Rhode Island

DEMOCRATS
This state is nearly a tossup. A recent PPP poll shows Sanders leading by 4, but since it's the only reliable poll, there's a chance it could be wrong. This state is certainly Sanders' best chance for a win, but there's a chance he may even lose here.

REPUBLICANS
Because of the nature of the delegate allocation here, Trump will certainly lose a few delegates. While I maintain Trump may hit 60%, it will not be easy for him. 

If we say the following vote percentages occur:
Trump 60%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 12%

Then at-large, Trump gets 8 delegates, Kasich receives 3/4, and Cruz gets 1/2.

For each of the two congressional districts, the top three finishers receive 1 delegate each unless

a) someone hits 67%
b) less than three people get 10%

While there is a chance for either of those to occur, let's assume the two congressional districts are similar and they each get one. Then, the final outlook will be:

Trump 10
Kasich 6
Cruz 3

Cruz gets 16% of delegates with 12% of the vote. Kasich gets 32% from 27%, while Trump gets just 53% from 60% of the vote. Whereas in Florida, Trump got 100% of delegates with 46% of the vote.

Tune in for results tonight!

Why You Should Care About The Pennsylvania Primaries

Ah, this is a fun one. The Pennsylvania primary is complex, but it could be key.

DEMOCRATS
Clinton is basically guaranteed victory. However, it could turn out close, or it could be a brutal landslide. The polls are conflicted and there's no way of knowing who's right. Hillary's path leads through a strong showing in Philadelphia. Bernie will try to run up his margin in Appalachia and keep it close.

REPUBLICANS
This is the interesting part. There are 71 Republican delegates. 17 are awarded to the statewide winner, likely to be Trump by a considerable margin. The other 54, however, are selected in each district. Three will be chosen out of a list of delegates on the ballot. This is fairly standard. However, the delegates are unbound and do not list a preference, leading to some more potential Cruz mischief. While many vote for the inner of the Congressional District, others may use their power to help anti-Trump forces.

Why You Should Care About the Maryland Primaries

This is part two of a series detailing the five primaries this Tuesday. Now, we are brought to Maryland.

DEMOCRATS

This is likely to be a huge landslide, as the primary electorate is 37% African-American (2008 exit poll data). Hillary should near 70% no doubt. I can't see it being any closer than, say, 59-41, but even that would be an outlier.

REPUBLICANS

Here is where it gets interesting: Maryland is Kasich's best hope to compete. It is winner-take-all statewide and by congressional district, however, so a close second for Kasich will still get him zilch. With bases of support for both Cruz and Kasich, this could be one of Trump's weakest states. Despite this, he may still walk away with all 38 delegates.

Why You Should Care About the Connecticut Primaries

This is part one of a five-part series detailing the primaries next Tuesday.

DEMOCRATS
The Connecticut primary is probably Bernie Sanders' best chance to avoid a total blowout. If he could come close or even win Connecticut, it wouldn't be an absolute disaster. That said, Hillary would like to capitalize on the diverse electorate and remains the likely favorite. It is also possible that Bernie could narrow his deficit and turn it into likely the most interesting primary this Tuesday.

REPUBLICANS
Trump is heavily favored here, with Kasich favored for second. Because of the delegate allocation, Kasich will pick up a few delegates from the at-large pile, and possibly win one congressional district. Cruz's best hope is to get some at-large delegates, as those are allocated completely proportionally. However, there are only 10 (or 13, it's unclear) of these, so the districts will be the larger prize, but also fairly uncompetitive.

Why You Should Care About the New York Primary

Tomorrow, the New York primary approaches. It's probably been the most-polled, most-covered primary since South Carolina. With the two frontrunners very likely getting huge wins, the question is: Why?

DEMOCRATS

The delegate allocation is straightforward in that it's exactly the same as all Democratic delegate allocation: Basically proportional. With it looking like Hillary will earn a ~15 point win, that translates into about 50 extra delegates. As you can imagine, that's not a great position to be in for the already trailing Sanders campaign. This primary will probably spell the end, unless they can pull off a Michigan-style upset.

REPUBLICANS

The delegate allocation here is less simple. There are 14 statewide delegates, and Trump seems poised to hit 50% and win all of them. The other 81 delegates are awarded to the winners of each congressional district. If someone clears 50%, they'll receive all 3. If nobody does, the top two finishers split it 2-1. There is a possibility for Cruz and Kasich to pick up some of these delegates in low-Republican congressional districts in New York City. If Trump falls below 50%, however, this will look a little different, and Kasich and Cruz will get both proportional statewide delegates and, potentially, a couple of extra CD delegates.

Why You Should Care About the Wyoming Democratic Caucus

Whoopee! The Wyoming democratic caucus is this weekend, and all 7 Democrats in Wyoming will be there! It almost sounds like a punchline, and true to its form, it's worth just 18 delegates (compare that to California's 548). And of course Bernie Sanders will win. He's won every neighboring state and every caucus since Super Tuesday.

What to Look For
Again, this should be very low-turnout (One of the first things on Google Images when you search for "Wyoming democrat" is the Wyoming Republican Party logo), but the main question is: Can Bernie keep up the 80-20 margins like he won in Washington, Alaska, and the like? If he has a bad night and falls to, say, 60% in this state that should be so favorable to him, it's almost certain his campaign has no hope. But if, remarkably, he keeps Hillary under the 15% threshold, it will be a great victory for the campaign.

Why You Should Care About the Wisconsin Primary

As you may or may not know, the Wisconsin primary is approaching fast. There's been quite some buzz about Wisconsin but why, exactly, is it important?

DEMOCRATS

The Democratic race is an exceedingly close one, with Sanders having a 5 point edge or so. Will this be the deciding factor? No. Sanders should have the edge here, but considering the nature of the race, for him to stay on pace he might have to get about 65% of the vote, which is very, very unlikely. That being said, if Hillary wins, Sanders may have no justification to stay in the race as states like New York and Maryland draw closer.

REPUBLICANS

This is where it's really important. The "Stop Trump" movement is hedging it's bets on Wisconsin, and for now it appears Cruz will likely win. Because of the nature of the delegate allocation, however, this is a very important race for the Stop Trump movement to do well in. The winner of the state will receive 18 delegates, and the winner of each Congressional District will receive 3. Luckily for Cruz and Kasich, their support is very divided. Upstate Wisconsin is a strong base for Cruz, while Milwaukee and its suburbs like Kasich. Because of this, Trump could get 35% of the vote, but win just one or two CDs, and come out with a low amount of delegates. If Trump gets no delegates, which would be unlikely but not impossible, it will become increasingly likely he will not be able to reach a first-ballot majority.