Week 55: 'Ethics' (January 8, 2017)

Dear Readers,

The Trump inauguration is a couple of weeks away, and politics is just as important as ever. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

Upcoming Dates

Inauguration Day of our 44th* President: 12 days from today

* Why 44th? Isn’t Trump the 45th president? Well, I find it ridiculous that we count Grover Cleveland twice just because he lost and got elected again four years later. He doesn’t get to be two separate people. If we’re measuring individual terms, then Trump is number 58, which makes just as little sense. But we’re not (except in Cleveland’s case apparently), so it’s 44 or 58. Your choice.

Swearing In Of Congress and Most Governors

Our new congress is present in Washington. And guess what, hijinks have ensued. On January 2nd, at the very end of their term, the good people of the House GOP voted to severely cut down the Office of Congressional Ethics. What could go wrong? Well, surprisingly, president-elect Trump released a tweet against the House GOP’s actions, and they agreed to do away with the plan. The plan, even before Trump’s tweet, was notably opposed by Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy, members of the Republican House Leadership. Trump’s decision is an odd one, but I see it as a message to the House that he’ll be checking their work and keeping them on their toes.

In the North Carolina governor’s seat, albeit with slightly less power, Roy Cooper (a Democrat) has already signed a large increase to Medicaid that will give healthcare to hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians and possibly oppose President Trump’s future rulings. Of course, the Republicans in the legislature are fighting it already (even though most of those helped by the bill are Republican voters).

Boris Johnson?

Recently spotted in New York is Boris Johnson, who is reportedly talking with Trump’s team about foreign policy. Johnson is the British Secretary for Foreign Affairs, so this does make some sense, especially coming hours after Trump tweeted that he looks forward to meeting Theresa May, but considering that Johnson is also known for his xenophobic demagoguery, it is amusing to see them both as great leaders of foreign policy.

Trump Supporters Don’t Care About Russia Hacks

The New York times recently published a collection of interviews with Trump supporters in Indiana and Louisiana. The findings are that these Trump supporters don’t find the big deal in the Russian election hacks. And while, yes, it may not have made a discernable difference, the idea that any foreign power can creep into our free elections and do whatever they want should give anyone a slight amount of fear. These reports indicate more than anything that some Trump supporters will believe Trump and fake media more than the news and facts. So to any Democrat who thinks we can hold Joe Donnelly’s Indiana Senate seat in the midterm elections, I’d want to be careful.

Thanks for reading! Sorry that this one was short - things are about to get interesting, though. Feel free to comment!

Week 51: "Diebold 2.0" (December 11, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The election may have passed but there’s always more news. If at any time you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, feel free to reply and let me know. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

Hacks?

The main story this week comes from an announcement, thanks to a secret government official, that the CIA is investigating Russian hacks into the election, and that they have some evidence. However, we must be careful. These are unnamed sources reporting on top-secret information from secretive government organizations. I’m not saying the claims are invalid, but we must not be too quick to assume. What matters here is not whether the outcome was changed - I highly doubt it was, regardless of whether the accusations are true at all. No, what matters here is how much future elections can be affected by this. If Russia or any other hackers can change election results at will, that’s a dangerous sign for our democracy. We’ve long known that our electoral process is slightly clunky and vulnerable, but this basic a mechanical issue is, in many ways, harder to fix. I don’t know what the correct solution is here, and I doubt anyone else does either. It’s just something to ponder, perhaps in fear.

Louisiana Runoff Recap

Well, this is no surprise, but John Kennedy won the Louisiana Senate runoff with 60.7% of the vote. (for a reminder on what it is and why it occurred, check last week’s newsletter) Foster Campbell, a conservative democrat from Shreveport, got trounced downstate and wound up losing by a greater margin than Hillary Clinton did. Clinton carried Shreveport’s county, and Campbell didn’t, even though it’s his hometown. It was an embarrassing loss for Campbell, who tried to replicate Gov. John Bel Edwards’ campaign and failed miserably.

PEOTUS Trump Continues To Deny Daily Intelligence Briefings

In a worrying display, our president-elect continues to decline daily intelligence briefings. This is one of the most important things one can receive as the president and the fact that our already unqualified, unconventional president is unwilling to be informed about global issues means that he will either show up to work on January 20th over his head, or governed by lies. Either way, it could lead to a messy situation that is currently avoidable, and I’m worried about the potential situations we as a nation could find ourselves in.

The Trump Cabinet

Trump announced a few more Cabinet positions this week. For Treasury, he chose Goldman Sachs executive and hedge fund manager Steven Mnuchin (a reminder that Trump attacked Hillary on being too close to Wall Street). He announced Ben Carson for Housing and Urban Development, and for Homeland Security announced General John Kelly. Some are worried that there are already multiple generals in his cabinet, but Homeland Security and Defense are, in my opinion, reasonable places for generals to be. In addition, former Exxon chief Rex Tillerson appears to be the favorite for Secretary of State. It was recently announced that on Monday, Trump would meet to discuss Cabinet positions with:

-Former CEO and presidential candidate Carly Fiorina

-Former Senator and presidential candidate who once lost re-election by 17 points, Rick Santorum

-Far-right-wing US Representative Raul Labrador

-Democratic Senator Joe Manchin

It’s a strange list; make of it what you will.

Trump Will Remain Executive Producer of “Celebrity Apprentice”

A report announces that Trump will continue in his position as executive producer of his hit show, the Celebrity Apprentice. He claims he will devote “zero time” to it, but his salary is reputed to be six figures. Regardless of whether he spends any time on this job, he still leads a show on a major network, while he is president. Even if his name is just in the credits for having the idea, he still receives a check.

This Week In World Elections

Canada: The Liberal party in Canada saw their vote share in a recent poll plummet, as the margin over the Conservatives fell from 23 points to 8 points. This is likely related to Trudeau’s reaction to Castro’s death and his decision to approve one oil pipeline and dismiss another. This, combined with a recent allegation of indecent fundraising, could turn the next elections into a horserace again. Or, it could all be a false alarm.

Thank you for reading. Feel free to comment or reply!

Week 50: "#TimeToGetTough"

Dear Readers,

We’ve officially made it fifty weeks! I’m as impressed as you are.

The election may have passed but there’s always more news. If at any time you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, feel free to reply and let me know. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

Explaining the Louisiana Senate Runoff

Next Saturday, John Kennedy and Foster Campbell will face off in a runoff for Louisiana’s Senate seat. While it’s unimportant and the Republican, Kennedy, should win easily, I figured I’d explain why it’s happening. Louisiana’s elections begin with a “jungle primary” on election day. What is a jungle primary? Well, instead of having primaries within a party, all the candidates are listed on the same ballot. Then, the top two candidates advance to a runoff, held a month after the election. There are both benefits and drawbacks to this system, but multiple states have it, including California and Washington. Louisiana is the only one that holds the jungle primary on election day, however.

Another Week in Trump’s America

So much happened this week that I will give a bullet-point list, rather than write paragraphs:

-Trump called the leader of Taiwan this week, a controversial move considering that the Taiwan-China dispute is one of the most heated in the world. Trump’s decision to call Taiwan is seen by many (including many in Beijing) as a mistake rather than a deliberate decision of policy, but it could spell worrisome considering that both Trump and China are not quiet in their foreign actions.

-In a more routine call, Trump called Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The only reason it was newsworthy was because of the things Trump said about Pakistan, not necessarily known as a huge ally of the U.S. President Trump reportedly said “Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, you have a very good reputation. You are a terrific guy... Pakistanis are one of the most intelligent people. I am ready and willing to play any role that you want me to play to address and find solutions to the outstanding problems." Pakistan, of course, is most notable for being the country in which Osama bin Laden hid. Trump himself once tweeted: "Get it straight: Pakistan is not our friend. We've given them billions and billions of dollars, and what did we get? Betrayal and disrespect — and much worse. #TimeToGetTough."

-In yet another incident with a foreign leader, this week Phillippine president Rodrigo Duterte, certainly no stranger to controversy, claimed that Donald Trump endorsed his antidrug campaign. Okay, what’s the problem with that? Well, Duterte’s anti-drug policy has been to round up drug dealers and kill them. Not only does he do this, he likely kills people who aren’t actually accused of dealing drugs and who he just doesn’t like. Regardless of that last statement, it is awful to give drug dealers the death penalty - even the most vocal supporters of the death penalty usually agree it shouldn’t be used for much more than murder. If Trump is truly in support of this, like Duterte says, it would spell a worrying future for America.

-Trump continues to insist that the popular vote in the election was rigged because of millions who voted illegally, and vice president-elect Mike Pence is defending him on it, claiming it’s “his right to express his opinion.” First off, it’s not an “opinion.” Trump is claiming a massive occurrence of voter fraud that somehow escaped all data and all reports. The reason this matters is because it shows Trump’s attitude towards voter suppression, a practice his party commonly engages in, and which is objectively anti-democracy.

This Week In World Elections

The Gambia: For the fifth time, twenty-year dictator Yahya Jammeh held an election to see if he could continue his rule. The most recent time, he easily won 71% of the vote. This time, he did everything in his power to hack the results, shutting down the internet on election day. However, challenger Adama Barrow, a businessman, won 46% of the vote and somehow defeated Jammeh. This will notably mark the first peaceful transition of power ever in The Gambia.

Austria: For the third time, Austria has held their presidential runoff. After the first round of voting in April, it was announced the runoff would be held between Green Party candidate and economics professor Alexander van der Bellen, and nationalist Islamophobe Norbert Hofer. However, the initial runoff was annulled after it was found that results were strange, such as 147% turnout in one precinct. So, they scheduled a round for October, but it was postponed again for today. This time, van der Bellen won with 53% of the vote.

Italy: In Italy, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi held a referendum on whether to shrink the Italian Senate. It wasn’t necessarily an unpopular decision, but Renzi messed up on one decision. He decided that if the vote failed, he would step down. That turned the decision into more of a referendum on Renzi himself. Lo and behold, the referendum failed, and he has to step down, which has probably paved the way for yet another nationalist to take power in a major Western country,

Thank you for reading. Feel free to comment or reply!

Week 46: "Two Days, That's All We've Got"

Dear Readers,

The election is approaching very rapidly. I’m going to help you make sense of everything.

Days until General Election: 2!

A Stunning Finish

Wow! We’ve nearly done it! We’ve nearly survived until election day! How does it feel? I know you’re all going to miss this campaign when it’s over, right? Right?

The two candidates have very different approaches to the final days. Hillary Clinton is playing it safe and staying in Pennsylvania, while Trump is hopping around the country with no rhyme or reason. Clinton is preparing her Get-Out-The-Vote machine, while Trump is hoping for a miracle. The voters, meanwhile, are just waiting for it all to end.

The biggest news story of last week was FBI Director James Comey’s decision to re-open the Clinton email case. Inevitably, Comey sent out another letter today saying Clinton did nothing wrong. This wasn’t very surprising, just very disappointing. Comey has done enough damage to Clinton already, and this story, I fear, will have low impact. However, it is re-assuring in terms of knowing that Clinton actually did nothing wrong.

OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS - 2016 ELECTION

Electoral College: 323 to 215

Final Map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/BOY2v

Popular Vote: Clinton +3.7

PRESIDENT HILLARY CLINTON

Senate: 50 to 49 (with 1 too close to call)

Final Map: http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/2XdXR2

DEMOCRATS CONTROL THE SENATE

REPUBLICANS CONTROL THE HOUSE (No numerical projection, sorry)

Swing States and Key Senate Race Breakdown/Reasoning:

Arizona: Recent polling in Arizona gives Trump a small edge. The reason I’m characterizing this as “Likely Trump” is because the most high-quality surveys both have the race as Trump +5. The Senate race will be easily won by McCain.

Colorado: I’m not yet willing to characterize Colorado as safe for Clinton, since the polling average is around Clinton +3, well within the possible room for error. That being said, Clinton should win by more than 3.

Florida: Early voting reports look good enough for the Democrats that I’ll give Clinton the edge here. Polls are telling a mixed story, but Hispanic turnout is way up and that can only mean good things for Clinton. However, it will be very close in Florida. However, none of this should be an issue for Rubio, who will cruise to victory.

Illinois: The senate race is the only interesting one here. Still, Duckworth has taken multiple double-digit leads recently, and Kirk’s campaign has been bad enough that I’m comfortable calling this one Likely for Duckworth.

Indiana: Again, I’ll only cover the senate race, as Trump will win by around 10 points here. Again, polling is showing a very mixed story in the Hoosier State, but Young has the momentum, and should give the Republicans a victory here.

Iowa: The high-profile Selzer survey gave Trump a 7-point lead here. It’s hard to see him losing Iowa at this point.

Michigan: The last poll showing Trump up in Michigan was taken in August. Clinton has leads of 2 to 7 points in all recent surveys. Likely Clinton victory.

Missouri: The presidential race may be uncompetitive, but Jason Kander is putting up a fight. There is a lack of consensus with the polls, and a lack of reputable polls entirely. I will give Kander the edge for now, but a surprise Republican victory here is plausible and could hand them the Senate.

Nevada: Nevada is a state with notoriously fluky polls, and indeed there is no consensus this year. However, early voting reports are consistently good for Clinton. This may be the closest state of the night, but Clinton is the favorite. In the senate race, Cortez-Masto has gained momentum and favorable poll numbers and should win.

New Hampshire: Clinton has consistently led here, and while some recent polls gave a bit of a scare, this state should go for Clinton. The senate race, however, is very, very close. Both candidates have strong campaigns, high name recognition, and credentials. Polls are close and there are low amounts of undecided voters. Anything could happen.

North Carolina: The “good polls” here have all shown decently large Clinton victory. However, some newer, more questionable, polling firms are showing ties or Trump leads, so I’ll only call this one “Lean Clinton”. The Senate race here is probably going to lead to a Richard Burr victory, but Ross does have some good polls and could ride Clinton’s margins to a close victory.

Ohio: Early voting reports and polls both look good for Trump and Rob Portman here. Barring something unforeseen, they should both win.

Pennsylvania: Clinton and McGinty have both led in all recent polls here, and shouldn’t have trouble winning this state.

Wisconsin: Both the presidential and senate races in Wisconsin are shaping up to be 6-point Democratic wins. Some polls have given Russ Feingold worry recently, but on the whole he should be able to win.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome! If anyone has any specific questions about my predictions, please respond and I’ll tell you!

Week 42: "A Party In Distress" (October 10, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Two debates, a leaked tape, and a party in distress. What a week it’s been. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 30

The VP Debate

The vice presidential debate on Tuesday featured Who’s-It and What’s-His-Face - sorry, I meant Tim Kaine and Mike Pence. The consensus was that Pence won, and I’m not going to dispute that. Kaine was very aggressive, interrupting Pence constantly, while Pence stayed calm, even if a lot of what he said was completely false. Trump received next to no bump from the debate, of course, because few people actually watched it. There were no memorable moments, so the media quickly moved on to other things.

The 2nd Presidential Debate

Trump and Clinton may have been the two candidates in Sunday’s Town Hall debate, but the real winner was Ken Bone. Joking aside, the CNN snap poll showed Clinton winning by only slightly less than it said she won the first debate, and Trump looked uncomfortable. A reverse of last time, the first 20 minutes seemed to be a train wreck for him, but he seemed more reasonable by the end. While the debate may have been good for Clinton, it’s also a refreshing change in the news cycle for Trump, given that...

Trump’s Todd Akin Moment

In 2012, Claire McCaskill was behind in Senate polls to challenger Todd Akin, until he made a controversial statement about rape and watched his party abandon him and his poll numbers fall. Well, Trump finally had his Todd Akin moment, and it looks as if he will lose ground in the polls just as Akin did.

The moment came when a tape of backstage chatter with Access Hollywood host Billy Bush from 2005 was released. In the tape, Trump brags about committing sexual assault, and then says “when you’re a star, they let you do it.” The actual contents of the tape are vulgar and horrible and I don’t want to write them out here (this article does a much more in-depth job), but the consequences faced were great.

Already, Sen. John McCain (AZ), Rep. Jason Chaffetz (UT), Rep. Joe Heck (NV), Sen. Kelly Ayotte (NH), Sen. John Thune (SD), Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Sen. Cory Gardner (CO), Sen. Rob Portman (OH), Gov. Gary Herbert (UT), and Gov. Bob Bentley (AL), noted for having an extramarital affair with a staffer while in office last year and not resigning, as well as many other GOP officials, have rescinded their endorsements. Speaker Paul Ryan denied Trump’s request to appear with him at a rally, Gov. John Kasich (OH) called on other Republicans to drop their endorsements, and plenty more have offered condemnations without actually de-endorsing him. Whether Republicans are operating only because this statement is terrible, or whether they see Trump collapsing otherwise and found this a good excuse is up to debate, but both are certainly factors. The few polls taken over the weekend see Trump slipping big, and downballot Republicans might need to bail out on Trump if they want to have a chance. Either way, the polling is about to get very ugly for Team Trump and only time will tell how long that lasts.

Weekly Predictions:

I’m going to remain conservative on the impact of the Trump tape for now until we have more data

Electoral Votes: Clinton 342, Trump 196 (http://www.270towin.com/maps/JlznX)

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

This Week In World Elections

Georgia: The Georgian Dream Party and United National Movement both got vastly more of the vote than all the other minor parties, with the Georgian Dream getting 49% and the UNM getting 27%. It was very disappointing for all the minor parties, who had hoped to break through but none received more than 6% of the vote.

Morocco: In the Moroccan parliamentary election, the Justice and Development Party, currently ruling, gained 18 seats to maintain their top spot, but the Authenticity and Modernity party doubled their seat count, gaining 55, to become a formidable challenger to the JDP. There was some worry about fraud, according to King Mohammed VI, but it doesn’t seem as if that impacted the election greatly.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 40: The Greatest Show on Earth (September 25, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 44

Days until 1st Debate: 1

New York Times, Cincinnati Enquirer Endorse Clinton

For the first time in over a hundred years, the Cincinnati Enquirer has endorsed a Democrat. The same paper that published a story asking: “Religion and science: Whose history is right?” in June, the same paper that endorsed Barry Goldwater, has come around to Hillary Clinton. The New York Times, the most read paper in America, also endorsed Clinton this week and published a scathing anti-Trump editorial. (You can read it here, I’d recommend it.) Newspaper endorsement carry a very small amount of weight nowadays, but these are two of the most important ones, and could make a small difference.

Ted Cruz Endorses Trump

The man who got up on stage at the RNC and said “Vote your conscience” to a chorus of boos has finally given in and endorsed Trump. Texan Senator and former 2016 candidate Ted Cruz announced he would be supporting Trump after months of saying the opposite, Cruz described the decision as “agonizing” and wouldn’t tell press whether Trump was qualified to be president, so it’s a very unenthusiastic endorsement, but it will send a signal to some Never-Trump holdouts.

HW Bush Endorses Clinton

In a similar vein, it was announced this week that former president George H.W. Bush will be supporting Hillary. He was fairly close with Bill Clinton in their respective times in office, so this isn’t hugely surprising, but it means that 4 of the 5 living former presidents support Clinton, with the other unknown.

Get Ready for the Flying Circus!

But the most important news of all is that the debates are coming: Tomorrow, Trump and Clinton square off in Long Island. The moderator will be Lester Holt. And the ratings will be - shall we say - YUUUUGE. Notably absent will be Gary Johnson, who fell way under the 15% threshold required to appear on stage. No doubt there will be some protest, but this wasn’t very surprising.

Anyway, on to my predictions - I have no idea what will happen. It is clear that Clinton is much more prepared than Trump is, and Clinton, being more used to this medium, should do better. However, Trump has set high expectations very low, and it's possible that he could get away with a poor performance. But we did see that Trump was strong in the debates in the primaries, and it’s possible that he could rattle Hillary and have a very, very good performance. It will mostly come down to expectations, and, as usual, who ever can get the best soundbite.

Senate Preview #11

UTAH:

Senator Mike Lee, a profound voice in the anti-Trump movement, easily won his party’s nomination and should be able to beat Misty Snow with no difficulty. Trump’s lack of success in Utah has barely affected Lee.

Rating: Safe R

VERMONT:

Patrick Leahy is the longest serving active Senator, and he is seeking re-election at the age of 76. His opposition, Scott Milne, will struggle to get 30%, especially given that Leahy is very popular.

Rating: Safe D

Seat Count

49-49

This Week In World Elections

Russia: Putin’s party earned only 54% of the vote, but won 343 of 450 seats, well more than those needed for a majority. Only 2 other parties received 10%, and we can safely conclude the elections were very rigged.

Isle of Man: Independents won 21 of the 24 seats in the House of Keys last week. The Liberal Vannin party won an additional 3, and the new Labour party won 773 votes and 0 seats.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!