Week 69: "Snap Election!" (April 23, 2017)

Dear Readers,

It has been an incredibly eventful week. For all past newsletters (and more), make sure to go to the blog at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Macron and Le Pen

So when we left off last week, the French election seemed to be very close, with Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen holding onto a slight lead. They made good on that lead today, with Macron getting 24% and Le Pen 21%, beating Fillon and Melenchon, who each got between 19 and 20%. (Though Melenchon wound up falling back into fourth place.) Macron is up in the runoff polls by some 20%, and it would take a drastic shift for Le Pen to make this even relatively close, but we’ve seen it happen before.

Ossoff and Georgia

The GA-6 congressional special election’s first round was this week as well. He reached 48%, which didn’t prevent a runoff, but should put him in a strong position for said runoff (which will be in June).  It’s better than what most expected, although an outright win would’ve definitely helped. Republicans now get to regroup and focus on one candidate, but Ossoff can now  focus his attacks  on Karen Handel, who has some suspicious business connections and has lost multiple important races in Georgia. The race is pretty much a tossup, at this point.

May Calls Snap Election

Facing the news of a 20-point lead in the polls, Theresa May’s Conservative Party got really excited and motioned for a new general election to be held on June 8, a move Labour (the minority party) were forced to support. The election should be easily won by the Conservatives, unless Jeremy Corbyn’s Labor do a very good job campaigning or a major geopolitical event happens. UKIP have tanked in the polls since the announcement, and should not be a factor in this election. It’s early yet, we’ll learn more about this race as it approaches.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz, Enemy of Many Democrats, To Resign

Jason Chaffetz, high-profile Republican representative from Utah, famous for leading a charge against Hillary Clinton’s email server, has announced that he will not seek re-election in 2018, and may not complete his term. He’s well known for being a hypocrite and an opportunist, and had been seen as likely to run for Senate or Governor. While he could theoretically still run for higher office after this, this potential resignation looks bad for him if he is to do that, and he had better have a convincing explanation.

Trump Gets Flustered over “100 Day” Mark

The hundredth day of Donald Trump’s presidency is approaching, and Trump is well aware of that fact. He’s repeatedly called out the media for unfairly representing his accomplishments so far, while having had a very unsuccessful ninety-plus days, having the healthcare bill fail, and with his cabinet still not fully confirmed. His approval rating is much lower than any other president’s has been at this point, and even William Henry Harrison had gotten some stuff done before dying on day 31. Media dishonesty or not, it hasn’t been a very strong hundred days - and Trump had said he’d get a lot done by now.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply, comment, or whatever.

Week 54: 2017! (January 2, 2017)

Dear Readers,

Happy New Year! A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

Another Week In Trump Tweets

Monday, December 26, 2016

It started off innocently enough, with three statements against Obama “President Obama said that he thinks he would have won against me. He should say that but I say NO WAY! - jobs leaving, ISIS, OCare, etc.”

“President Obama campaigned hard (and personally) in the very important swing states, and lost.The voters wanted to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

“Doing my best to disregard the many inflammatory President O statements and roadblocks.Thought it was going to be a smooth transition - NOT!”

Then this troubling statement: “Great move on delay (by V. Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!”

And another two passive-aggressive “sore winner” statements: “Happy New Year to all, including to my many enemies and those who have fought me and lost so badly they just don't know what to do. Love!”

“I thought and felt I would win big, easily over the fabled 270 (306). When they cancelled fireworks, they knew, and so did I.”

From a disgusting pro-Russia approach to a continual taunting of Democrats and President Obama, these tweets have a bit of everything. And they’re a full display of everything worrying about our president-elect.

Gerard Baker’s Interesting Approach to Covering Things Now

Wall Street Journal editor Gerard Baker has taken a strange approach to his coverage. When asked about Donald Trump’s false statements he remarked, “I’d be careful about using the word ‘lie.’ ‘Lie’ implies much more than just saying something that’s false. It implies a deliberate intent to mislead.” Now, that’d be one thing coming from Kellyanne Conway. But coming from a journalist whose job is to inform the people, this is strange. Now, we know the WSJ is a somewhat conservative publication, but a following answer truly proves that: “This is happening all the time now, people are looking at what Donald Trump’s saying and saying, ‘This is false, it’s a false claim.’ I think people are saying, ‘You know what, Hillary Clinton said a lot things that were false.’ I don’t remember the press being quite so concerned about saying she lied in headlines and stories like that.”

Semi-Bold Political Predictions for 2017:

American politics:

-At least one Trump cabinet official, as well at least one non-cabinet official, will not be confirmed by the Senate

-On January 1, 2018, Donald Trump’s approval rating will be around 37%

-”Calexit” will reach 25% support in polls

-Democrats will hold the Virginia gubernatorial election, and pick up the seat in New Jersey

-Preliminary Democratic primary polling will continue to show Sanders and Warren with leads, but as it becomes clearer neither will run, newer candidates will gain momentum

International politics:

-Maxime Bernier will pull off an upset to win the Conservative Party of Canada leadership race

-Francois Fillon will defeat Marine Le Pen in the French presidential runoff 55-45

-Angela Merkel’s CDU will lead parliament in Germany yet again, albeit with a minority government.

-Jonas Gahr Støre’s Liberals (and coalition) will take a majority in Norway

-There will not be another Scottish independence referendum

Thanks for reading! Feel free to comment.

Week 52: Faithless (December 18, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The election may have passed but there’s always more news. If at any time you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, feel free to reply and let me know. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

Tomorrow: The Electoral College Vote

Tomorrow, the electors from the electoral college will gather to cast the real votes for president. Don’t get ahead of yourself, however. The official, official results will not be known for a couple of weeks. Why does this matter at all? Well, there is still a chance that an election could go “faithless” by voting for a candidate other than that which won their state. Now, there have been just 2 of these in the past 6 elections, and the last time there was more than one was over 100 years ago, in 1912. However, this election has been so crazy on both sides that anything could happen. I doubt there will be any faithless electors in the end, but you never know.

North Carolina Republicans Curb Governor’s Power

For absolutely no reason at all, the Republican-controlled North Carolina legislature have decided to strip the governor’s chair of some power. Directly ignoring the will of the voters who chose Roy Cooper over incumbent Pat McCrory, most famous for telling people what bathroom to use, they have decided to make sure the victory was meaningless. Meanwhile, in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Missouri, where Democrats lost governor’s seats, nothing similar is happening. Hmm....

Meet Secretary of State Nominee Rex Tillerson

The past five Secretaries of State (including Tillerson) have held the positions of:

-Senator from New York and First Lady

-Senator from Massachusetts and Democratic presidential nominee

-National Security Advisor

-Chair of the Joint Chief of Staffs

-Leader of the Boy Scouts of America and Chair of Exxon Mobil

Tillerson, the last one, certainly has interesting credentials for an important job. He also has worrying conflicts of interest and a strange connection to Vladimir Putin. He is the former architect over an oil deal with Putin. He has been given the Russian Order of Friendship, an award given to KGB double agent George Blake and Steven Seagal. Now, it isn’t bad to be liked by another country, but it’s disconcerting for the Secretary of State to be connected to a country that may or may not have hacked our election results.

This Week In World Elections

Canada: Prime Minister Trudeau is coming under fire for failing to meet his promises he made during the election. He cut taxes on the rich, rather than the middle class, and didn’t deliver a schooling grant he promised to First Nations Canadians. Polls, though infrequent, have continued to tighten. His approval rating has fallen significantly. Neither the Conservatives nor the NDP have selected their party leader for next election, so polls are mostly meaningless now, but Trudeau should start to worry soon.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to comment.

Week 51: "Diebold 2.0" (December 11, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The election may have passed but there’s always more news. If at any time you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, feel free to reply and let me know. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

Hacks?

The main story this week comes from an announcement, thanks to a secret government official, that the CIA is investigating Russian hacks into the election, and that they have some evidence. However, we must be careful. These are unnamed sources reporting on top-secret information from secretive government organizations. I’m not saying the claims are invalid, but we must not be too quick to assume. What matters here is not whether the outcome was changed - I highly doubt it was, regardless of whether the accusations are true at all. No, what matters here is how much future elections can be affected by this. If Russia or any other hackers can change election results at will, that’s a dangerous sign for our democracy. We’ve long known that our electoral process is slightly clunky and vulnerable, but this basic a mechanical issue is, in many ways, harder to fix. I don’t know what the correct solution is here, and I doubt anyone else does either. It’s just something to ponder, perhaps in fear.

Louisiana Runoff Recap

Well, this is no surprise, but John Kennedy won the Louisiana Senate runoff with 60.7% of the vote. (for a reminder on what it is and why it occurred, check last week’s newsletter) Foster Campbell, a conservative democrat from Shreveport, got trounced downstate and wound up losing by a greater margin than Hillary Clinton did. Clinton carried Shreveport’s county, and Campbell didn’t, even though it’s his hometown. It was an embarrassing loss for Campbell, who tried to replicate Gov. John Bel Edwards’ campaign and failed miserably.

PEOTUS Trump Continues To Deny Daily Intelligence Briefings

In a worrying display, our president-elect continues to decline daily intelligence briefings. This is one of the most important things one can receive as the president and the fact that our already unqualified, unconventional president is unwilling to be informed about global issues means that he will either show up to work on January 20th over his head, or governed by lies. Either way, it could lead to a messy situation that is currently avoidable, and I’m worried about the potential situations we as a nation could find ourselves in.

The Trump Cabinet

Trump announced a few more Cabinet positions this week. For Treasury, he chose Goldman Sachs executive and hedge fund manager Steven Mnuchin (a reminder that Trump attacked Hillary on being too close to Wall Street). He announced Ben Carson for Housing and Urban Development, and for Homeland Security announced General John Kelly. Some are worried that there are already multiple generals in his cabinet, but Homeland Security and Defense are, in my opinion, reasonable places for generals to be. In addition, former Exxon chief Rex Tillerson appears to be the favorite for Secretary of State. It was recently announced that on Monday, Trump would meet to discuss Cabinet positions with:

-Former CEO and presidential candidate Carly Fiorina

-Former Senator and presidential candidate who once lost re-election by 17 points, Rick Santorum

-Far-right-wing US Representative Raul Labrador

-Democratic Senator Joe Manchin

It’s a strange list; make of it what you will.

Trump Will Remain Executive Producer of “Celebrity Apprentice”

A report announces that Trump will continue in his position as executive producer of his hit show, the Celebrity Apprentice. He claims he will devote “zero time” to it, but his salary is reputed to be six figures. Regardless of whether he spends any time on this job, he still leads a show on a major network, while he is president. Even if his name is just in the credits for having the idea, he still receives a check.

This Week In World Elections

Canada: The Liberal party in Canada saw their vote share in a recent poll plummet, as the margin over the Conservatives fell from 23 points to 8 points. This is likely related to Trudeau’s reaction to Castro’s death and his decision to approve one oil pipeline and dismiss another. This, combined with a recent allegation of indecent fundraising, could turn the next elections into a horserace again. Or, it could all be a false alarm.

Thank you for reading. Feel free to comment or reply!

Week 47: "306-222" (November 13, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The election may have passed but there’s always more news. If at any time you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, feel free to reply and let me know. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

What We All Got Wrong

As you may know, the election happened. As you also many know, Donald Trump beat lengthy odds to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and the presidency. (However, I will note, Hillary Clinton earned more popular votes.) Trump never led in a poll of Wisconsin, and led in just one poll each of Michigan and Pennsylvania (among those taken in the month before the election). The victory came as a shock to many, including myself, who predicted comfortable Hillary Clinton wins in the electoral college. So what went wrong?

The first thing one notices when looking at the results is the surprising sweep of the midwest done by Trump. Five of the six Obama states he picked up were in the midwest (including Pennsylvania, for simplicity). The map excluding the midwest, in fact, looked similar to what many had predicted. So the error found in the polling seems to be specific to this one region. Now, there is one thing Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have in common that no other states do. They all have one or two large, diverse urban centers with rural, largely white, areas around them. Trump’s populist message resonated very well in these rural areas, and when push came to shove, Clinton couldn’t get urban minorities to turn out for her at the same frequency they did for Barack Obama four and eight years before. Indeed, turnout went way down in all these states.

The Ten Reasons the Election Went As It Did

Look, it should have been easy for Hillary Clinton to win this election. Barack Obama’s approval rating hovers around 53%. Trump is the most unpopular presidential candidate in recent history. The economy isn’t looking very negative. So why did Hillary Clinton lose?

1. The Electoral College: I suppose I must address this issue. For the second time in sixteen years, the electoral college elected the candidate with less votes to be president. Defenders of this system will point out that it takes broad appeal to be elected president, and will say it gives voice to smaller states. Critiquers will point out the high failure rate and say it is antiquated.
2. James Comey: The other common scapegoat is James Comey. While his decision to re-open the email investigation may have helped cause a late movement in the polls toward Trump, the polls were tightening anyway, and Comey was just doing his job.
3. Obama not on the Ticket: Barack Obama managed to win such a large victory in 2008 and 2012 largely because he got minorities to turnout more than usual and vote more Democrat than usual . However, with Clinton running instead of Obama, minority turnout fell, largely because Clinton was less inspirational and had less outreach.
4. Clinton’s Own Unpopularity: Trump may have been the most unpopular major party candidate for many years, but Clinton herself had a net unfavorable rating and was viewed unfavorably even by many of her own supporters. The constant reminders of Clinton’s many scandals invaded media coverage and dampened enthusiasm.
5. Clinton’s Perceived Elitism: Many Rust Belt voters who voted for Obama twice were more excited by Trump this year because he was populist like Obama was. He promised working-class voters that they’d get their jobs back, while Clinton did not do very much of the same.
6. Clinton’s Negative Ads: Especially in the midwest, the Clinton campaign ran many negative, anti-Trump ads. This diluted the campaign message and failed to inspire voters. Trump didn’t exactly remain positive, with his own last ad instead featuring anti-Semitic dogwhistles, but he inspired voters much more than Mrs. Clinton did.`
7. Message: The last, most important, reason this election went as it did is one that isn’t covered very often. From the beginning, Trump has made his campaign about “Making America Great Again.” It is a brilliant slogan that means many different things to different people. It matters more than any policy, and conveys the attitude and emotion Trump has into a short statement. Clinton tried many slogans, none of which stuck as well as Trump’s did. I’m not going to say it won him the election, but it definitely helped.

What Happened Downticket

In the Senate, only two seats flipped from the Republicans to the Democrats. In Illinois, Tammy Duckworth defeated Mark Kirk, and Maggie Hassan beat Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. In the end, every Senate race voted the same way as the presidential race in the same state, and that leaves Republicans with 52-48 control, pending a runoff in Louisiana. Democrats similarly picked up just 6 or 7 seats (some races are still uncalled/outstanding) in the House. Gubernatorial races were similarly bleak for the Democratic party. While the map heading in looked like it could result in one or two Democratic pickups, the Republicans gained 3 governorships (still pending results in North Carolina.)

Reactions to the Results

The results of Tuesday have led to three things: a petition to cause faithless electors, future talk about ending the electoral college, and riots and protests.

When the electors of the electoral college vote in December, some of them could possibly vote for a different candidate than that chosen by the states. A petition is being spread around to somehow convince 38 electors to overthrow the democratic process of America and vote for Hillary Clinton. Regardless of who won the popular vote, this sets an awful precedent. The rules were known to both candidates going in, and Clinton herself has accepted the results.

The correct course of action to this, if one is so inclined, is to work to defeat the electoral college for the future. Now, I believe that there are many issues with a national popular vote and the electoral college does have benefits, but if you’re truly worried by the results of the election, this is the correct course of action, not the first or the last things listed here.

Clinton supporters have taken to the streets in major cities in protest. One such protest, in Portland, Oregon, did, indeed turn violent and led to 71 arrests. Thousands yet again took to the streets on 5th avenue in New York. I still think this is the wrong course of action - the sentiment is not bad, but it makes liberals appear whiny and like sore losers. And it completely ignores the huge elephant in the room - the fact that liberal and conservative America have grown increasingly divided. And protests sure won’t help that.

I was going to write about the Bulgarian election and all that, but I really feel like I should end on this message. In the wake of this election, don’t sit around moping, and please, please don’t riot. Instead, go out and listen to the people you disagree with. The one reason I am thankful - or at least, I hope to be thankful - for this election is that it enabled Democrats and Clinton supporters to see past our liberal bubbles. So please don’t disappoint me. Read a Breitbart article. Watch an interview with a midwestern voter on CNN. Dare to see where the other side is coming from. That is what you can do to make your country better.

Thank you for reading. As always, feel free to reply and comment!

Week 46: "Two Days, That's All We've Got"

Dear Readers,

The election is approaching very rapidly. I’m going to help you make sense of everything.

Days until General Election: 2!

A Stunning Finish

Wow! We’ve nearly done it! We’ve nearly survived until election day! How does it feel? I know you’re all going to miss this campaign when it’s over, right? Right?

The two candidates have very different approaches to the final days. Hillary Clinton is playing it safe and staying in Pennsylvania, while Trump is hopping around the country with no rhyme or reason. Clinton is preparing her Get-Out-The-Vote machine, while Trump is hoping for a miracle. The voters, meanwhile, are just waiting for it all to end.

The biggest news story of last week was FBI Director James Comey’s decision to re-open the Clinton email case. Inevitably, Comey sent out another letter today saying Clinton did nothing wrong. This wasn’t very surprising, just very disappointing. Comey has done enough damage to Clinton already, and this story, I fear, will have low impact. However, it is re-assuring in terms of knowing that Clinton actually did nothing wrong.

OFFICIAL PREDICTIONS - 2016 ELECTION

Electoral College: 323 to 215

Final Map: http://www.270towin.com/maps/BOY2v

Popular Vote: Clinton +3.7

PRESIDENT HILLARY CLINTON

Senate: 50 to 49 (with 1 too close to call)

Final Map: http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/2XdXR2

DEMOCRATS CONTROL THE SENATE

REPUBLICANS CONTROL THE HOUSE (No numerical projection, sorry)

Swing States and Key Senate Race Breakdown/Reasoning:

Arizona: Recent polling in Arizona gives Trump a small edge. The reason I’m characterizing this as “Likely Trump” is because the most high-quality surveys both have the race as Trump +5. The Senate race will be easily won by McCain.

Colorado: I’m not yet willing to characterize Colorado as safe for Clinton, since the polling average is around Clinton +3, well within the possible room for error. That being said, Clinton should win by more than 3.

Florida: Early voting reports look good enough for the Democrats that I’ll give Clinton the edge here. Polls are telling a mixed story, but Hispanic turnout is way up and that can only mean good things for Clinton. However, it will be very close in Florida. However, none of this should be an issue for Rubio, who will cruise to victory.

Illinois: The senate race is the only interesting one here. Still, Duckworth has taken multiple double-digit leads recently, and Kirk’s campaign has been bad enough that I’m comfortable calling this one Likely for Duckworth.

Indiana: Again, I’ll only cover the senate race, as Trump will win by around 10 points here. Again, polling is showing a very mixed story in the Hoosier State, but Young has the momentum, and should give the Republicans a victory here.

Iowa: The high-profile Selzer survey gave Trump a 7-point lead here. It’s hard to see him losing Iowa at this point.

Michigan: The last poll showing Trump up in Michigan was taken in August. Clinton has leads of 2 to 7 points in all recent surveys. Likely Clinton victory.

Missouri: The presidential race may be uncompetitive, but Jason Kander is putting up a fight. There is a lack of consensus with the polls, and a lack of reputable polls entirely. I will give Kander the edge for now, but a surprise Republican victory here is plausible and could hand them the Senate.

Nevada: Nevada is a state with notoriously fluky polls, and indeed there is no consensus this year. However, early voting reports are consistently good for Clinton. This may be the closest state of the night, but Clinton is the favorite. In the senate race, Cortez-Masto has gained momentum and favorable poll numbers and should win.

New Hampshire: Clinton has consistently led here, and while some recent polls gave a bit of a scare, this state should go for Clinton. The senate race, however, is very, very close. Both candidates have strong campaigns, high name recognition, and credentials. Polls are close and there are low amounts of undecided voters. Anything could happen.

North Carolina: The “good polls” here have all shown decently large Clinton victory. However, some newer, more questionable, polling firms are showing ties or Trump leads, so I’ll only call this one “Lean Clinton”. The Senate race here is probably going to lead to a Richard Burr victory, but Ross does have some good polls and could ride Clinton’s margins to a close victory.

Ohio: Early voting reports and polls both look good for Trump and Rob Portman here. Barring something unforeseen, they should both win.

Pennsylvania: Clinton and McGinty have both led in all recent polls here, and shouldn’t have trouble winning this state.

Wisconsin: Both the presidential and senate races in Wisconsin are shaping up to be 6-point Democratic wins. Some polls have given Russ Feingold worry recently, but on the whole he should be able to win.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome! If anyone has any specific questions about my predictions, please respond and I’ll tell you!