Week 20: "The Northeast Decides" (April 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 44

Days until General Election: 198

REPUBLICANS

New York Results

... And the results are in and it was a brutal landslide! Trump hit 60% and took 90 of 95 delegates, winning all but one congressional district. The multi-billionaire’s one weak spot was the ultra-wealthy island of Manhattan, which is so painfully ironic. Cruz failed to win a delegate, no doubt thanks to his “New York values” comment. Kasich took his first delegates in over a month by winning 5.

State of the Race

At this point, neither Cruz nor Kasich can get a majority of pledged delegates. This doesn’t mean it will be easy for Trump to get a majority: he needs about 63% of remaining delegates, including winner-take-all states like Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska in which Cruz is favored. While Trump is likely to win when uncommitted delegates are factored in, the path to stopping him runs through two states...

Indiana: Cruz and Trump are about even from limited data here. Whoever wins the state gets a big delegate benefit, and a Wisconsin-like win, or even a slightly better prepared Missouri could reap benefits for Cruz.

California: The biggest state doesn’t come until June 7, and Trump should win, but if it’s anywhere close, expect to see anti-Trump forces bank everything here.

DEMOCRATS

New York Results: This Time It’s Personal

As expected, Hillary won. CNN exit polls initially showed a close 52-48 race. However, in the end it wound up 58-42. A win here prefaces good things to come this Tuesday for the Clinton campaign. Bernie won almost all of upstate New York, but Hillary’s strength in NYC proper and urban areas like Buffalo and Rochester let her easily hang on for the win in her adopted home state. As she said in her victory speech, “This time it’s personal”.

State of the Race

Clinton holds a nearly insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, and an incredible lead in superdelegates. In order for Bernie to win he’d have to get up to 80% in California and break even the rest of the way, which is nearly impossible. And even then, because of his strength in caucuses, Hillary would maintain the popular vote lead and retain enough superdelegates to win anyway.

FORECASTS

April 26

Connecticut: Hillary 56, Bernie 42

Delaware: Hillary 59, Bernie 39

Maryland: Hillary 63, Bernie 36

Pennsylvania: Hillary 54, Bernie 46

Rhode Island: Bernie 52, Hillary 47

April 26

Connecticut: Trump 44, Kasich 33, Cruz 21

Delaware: Trump 52, Kasich 25, Cruz 21

Maryland: Trump 39, Kasich 34, Cruz 26

Pennsylvania: Trump 43, Cruz 29, Kasich 25

Rhode Island: Trump 57, Kasich 28, Cruz 12

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Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage (and previews of the upcoming slew of primaries).