Week 18: "Cruz Unwanted in the Bronx" (April 10, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 58

Days until General Election: 212

REPUBLICANS

Results: Two for Cruz

This Tuesday was the crucial Wisconsin primary, and it was no surprise when Ted Cruz won. He came out with 39 delegates to Trump’s 9, and 48% to Trump’s 35%. The key reason for his overperformance was a tactical shift from Kasich to Cruz, as Kasich got just 14% and failed to win even Dane County (Madison) in which he was assumed to win,

Also this week was the Colorado convention which appears to be a sweep for Cruz. Anywhere from 17 to 34 of the 37 delegates have been confirmed for him, with none confirmed for Trump or Cruz. It was a good week for Cruz, and possibly pushes it slightly closer to a contested convention, but it shouldn’t tip the scale too much.

Cruz Booed out of the Bronx

Ted Cruz visited the Bronx this week. Throughout the visit, he was swarmed with protesters, and had to cancel one visit to a school.

"We told [the principal] if he came here, we would schedule a walkout," said Destiny Domeneck, 16. "Most of us are immigrants or come from immigrant backgrounds. Ted Cruz goes against everything our school stands for."

This might be confusing since there are very few Republicans in the bronx, but the Bronx is worth just as many delegates as huge Republican strongholds upstate. (For more on this, check out this story.

DEMOCRATS

Results: Wisconsin and Wyoming

In Wisconsin, Bernie got 58% and won every county but Milwaukee, which Clinton won by only 3%. He came out about 10 delegates ahead. In Wyoming, Bernie won 55-45, but it wound up a tie in delegates. He may have very slightly shrunk the gap, but it does nothing to stop Hillary’s inevitability. (Although it may be necessary to note that Bernie has now won 7 of the last 8 primaries, it will make absolutely no difference.)

Bernie Keeps Making Excuses

For the 600th time, Bernie has dismissed Clinton’s lead by saying “it’s all from the South” and “no Democrat will ever win in the South”. Of course, Bernie has won in Democratic strongholds of Idaho and Utah, and important swing states Wyoming, Alaska, and Kansas. It’s not rare to hear this rhetoric, but to anyone who believes Hillary shouldn’t be leading, she has more votes. Everything is legitimate and if you’re going to complain about delegate rules, talk to the RNC, not the DNC.

FORECASTS

Wyoming Convention (2.0) 4/16

Cruz: 11 delegates

Trump: 1 delegate

Kasich: 0 delegates

Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage, especially as the New York primary draws near. Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!