Week 17: "Delegate Trickery and Party Infighting" (April 3, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

(I'm pretty sure the title can also be a general headline for the campaign, it's never not appropriate)

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 65

Days until General Election: 219

REPUBLICANS

North Dakota Convention

There weren’t any real primaries this week, but the closest we’ll get is the North Dakota republican convention, at which the 25 unbound delegates were selected. From what we know, of those, 19 were Cruz supporters. The other 6, we don’t know, but it’s fair to assume Trump won 1 or 2. This is still a dismal result and a definite decisive win for the GOP establishment.

Buffoon Misuses Poll

This morning Donald Trump posted a picture of a poll showing him leading in Wisconsin 37-26. Most polls of Wisconsin show Cruz leading decisively. The catch? This was the crosstab of the poll among independents, who Trump does better with. I’m sure plenty of people saw this and completely trusted it, which just goes to show that people are terrible at reading the fine print and will believe anything their leader says. Regardless, there is nearly no chance of Trump winning Wisconsin (For more on that, go here). As another interesting caveat, this was a Fox News poll, Fox News being an organization that Trump absolutely despises.

Candidates Renounce Pledge

All three candidates decided to renounce a pledge they had earlier signed to support the eventual nominee. Cruz was the first to do this, angered over Trump’s insulting of his wife. Trump, in retaliation, did the same. (Earlier this summer, it was unclear whether he’d agree to do this at all). Kasich followed suit, in what was most likely a desperate attempt to get into the news, or separate himself from the gutter politics that his two rivals specialize in. While it’s hard to see these candidates not supporting the nominee in the end, with everything that’s happened already, nothing can surprise me.

DEMOCRATS

Delegate Trickery Gives Sanders Apparent Edge in Nevada

Some floor maneuvering and delegate manipulation at the Clark and Washoe County conventions in Nevada have given Sanders a majority of delegates in Nevada going into the state convention in May. It’s unclear how this feat was accomplished, with people pointing fingers to trickery from both campaigns, but regardless, this is another piece of evidence to the case for eliminating caucuses.

FORECASTS

Wisconsin Primary (4/5): Cruz 43, Trump 34, Kasich 21

Colorado Convention (4/8-9): Cruz 73, Kasich 14, Trump 10

Wisconsin Primary (4/5): Sanders 54, Clinton 44

Wyoming Caucus (4/9): Sanders 77, Clinton 18

PERSONAL, UNSCIENTIFIC, ODDS

Hillary Clinton 98%

Bernie Sanders 2%

Majority (20%):

Donald Trump 20%

Convention (80%):

Donald Trump 38%

Ted Cruz 26%

John Kasich 4%

Other (Romney/Ryan/Rubio?) 12%

Total:

Trump 58%

Cruz 26%

Kasich 4%

Other 12%

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!