Week 19: "They Should See A Psychiatrist" (April 17, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 51

Days until General Election: 205

REPUBLICANS

Cruz Campaign Continues to Outsmart Trump

One common theme that’s recently emerged in the campaign is Ted Cruz’s campaign fishing for delegates every way possible as Trump’s campaign looks on, shaken. At the second half of the Wyoming convention this week, Cruz took all 12 delegates. At the Georgia convention, Cruz’s campaign loaded even Trump delegate slots with Cruz supporters, which in the likely event of a contested convention will matter greatly.

Said Cruz campaign manager, Jeff Roe, “[the campaign] is a multilevel Rubik’s Cube. Trump thought it was a golf ball — you just had to whack it.” Cruz has given himself the advantage in a brokered convention through his mastery of the process. On the other hand, Trump couldn’t even line up a speaker for the Wyoming convention, after Sarah Palin said she couldn’t make it. When Palin is your first choice and you have no second choice, you seem pretty vulnerable.

Paul Ryan Not to Accept Nomination at Convention

Another possibility at the convention would be the nomination of somebody who had failed to run: A common name is Paul Ryan. However, this week Speaker Ryan said he wouldn’t like the nomination, and urged delegates to note vote for him, saying he wouldn’t accept the nomination. Another person to fall in the path of future President Schwarzenegger!

DEMOCRATS

Candidates’ Brawl Gets Bloodier

The Clinton and Sanders campaigns have been duking it out for months, and this week was no exception. At the Thursday debate in Brooklyn, the candidates argued over everything from tax returns to Israel. My friend Elias Gerstein, who was at the debate, said: “I think Bernie went crazy! He lost the debate, but he brought up some amazing ideas on minimum wage.” Both candidates are geared towards Tuesday’s New York primary, holding huge rallies and campaigning every inch of the state. While Hillary is favored, this state is still a must-win for the Sanders campaign.

Bernie Releases Tax Returns, Goes to Rome

In a bizarre move, Bernie Sanders left the campaign trail to meet with Pope Francis in Rome and make a speech. It’s unclear the particular motivation for this, and the pope said, "When I came down, I greeted them, shook their hands and nothing more. This is good manners. It's called good manners and not getting mixed up in politics. If anyone thinks that greeting someone means getting involved in politics, they should see a psychiatrist.”

Also this week, Bernie released his tax returns, something he has long been pressured to do. Hillary, however, still refuses to release her Wall Street speeches.

FORECASTS

New York (4/19):

Hillary Clinton 56.2%

Bernie Sanders 42.7%

New York (4/19):

Donald Trump 55.1%, 80 delegates

John Kasich 26%, 12 delegates

Ted Cruz 18.6%, 3 delegates

ODDS

Hillary Clinton 99.2%

Bernie Sanders .8%

Donald Trump 52%

Ted Cruz 36%

John Kasich 6%

Paul Ryan/Mitt Romney 3%

Other 3%

Chaos: 100%

Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage, especially as the New York primary draws near. Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!