Sunday, May 8, 2016

Week 22: "Trump Secures the Nomination" (May 8, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a great torrent of news, and the avalanche of Trump has progressed one more step. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 30
Days until General Election: 184


Trump Wins Indiana
Trump needed a big win in Indiana, and by that me (and most pundits) meant a margin of 15 points. Instead, Trump won by 17%, getting 53% of the vote, and causing his two opponents to drop out of the race. Kasich may have basically abandoned the state, but his 7% was brutally embarrassing, and Cruz basically needed a win to remain viable. Instead, Trump swept all 57 delegates, securing the nomination.

Cruz and Kasich Drop Out
Following those pathetic results, John Kasich and Ted Cruz both suspended their campaigns. Cruz dropped out on primary night, accidentally elbowing his wife in the head on his way off the stage. Kasich dropped out the next day, but for a single day he was 4th place in delegates in a 2-man race. This also makes Carly Fiorina the shortest-lived VP candidate since Thomas Eagleton. Fiorina also set a personal speed record for destroying an organization, topping her previous 6 years with just 6 days!

Party Fails to Line Up Behind Trump
Various party officials have declined to endorse Trump. The presidents Bush have said they won’t vote in this election and will not even talk about it. The third Bush, Jeb (remember him?) has also declined to support Trump, with him and Lindsey Graham becoming the first of the Republican candidates to do so. Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse has refused to support Trump, calling for a third party, although he says he himself won’t do it. Bill Kristol, conservative columnist, and Karl Rove changed their party registrations. The highest-ranking Republican official in the nation, Paul Ryan, also joined this crowd, causing Sarah Palin (Why do we have to keep talking about her?) to begin supporting his primary opponent. Another few who won’t endorse Trump:

Joe Scarborough, Sen. Gordon Humphrey, Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Glenn Beck, Mitt Romney (probably), Fmr. House Maj. Ldr. Tom DeLay, Sen. Slade Gorton, Rob McKenna, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, VT gubernatorial candidate Phil Scott, Gov. Charlie Baker, Rep. Bob Dold, Philip Klein of the Washington Examiner, Lachlan Markey of the Washington Free Beacon, Rep. Justin Amash, Sen. Norm Coleman, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Fmr. RNC Chairman Mel Martinez, Ron Paul, George Pataki, Reid Ribble, Scott Rigell, Rep. Mark Sanford, Charlie Sykes, Christine Todd Whitman, Sen. Dean Heller, Larry Hogan, Brian Sandoval (maybe), Alan Keyes, Gov. Tom Ridge, Rep. Richard Hanna, Rep. Bob Inglis, Mark Levin, and many more.

Now, anyone who cares what the “party elites” have to say is probably not voting for Trump anyway, but Ron Paul and Justin Amash from the libertarian wing, Alan Keyes and Rove from the extreme wing and the standard Whitman, Romney, Ryan party establishment show that there is diversity among the dissenters.


Sanders Earns Surprise Indiana Win
Despite an early lead by Hillary, and Hillary easily being favored, Sen. Sanders won Indiana by over 5 points. He rode a surprise win in Indianapolis to victory, although his shortcomings in southern Indiana raise some doubt for Kentucky on May 17. “Momentum” has literally no effect at this stage, but it’s interesting to see Cruz and Kasich surrender as the Democratic race is alive and heavily fighting.

Even with his Indiana win, Sanders needs to win 67% of remaining delegates to earn a majority of delegates. However, superdelegates would likely still deny him the nomination, as, even in that scenario, he would still have less raw votes than Hillary Clinton. Clinton has basically won the nomination, barring a major scandal or indictment.


May 10
West Virginia
Bernie Sanders 42%, Hillary Clinton 30%, Keith R. Judd 17%

Nebraska (meaningless, no delegates)
Bernie Sanders 54%, Hillary Clinton 44%

May 10
Trump 77%

West Virginia
Trump 100.8%


Thank you for reading!

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