Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Why You Should Care About the Indiana Primary

The Indiana primary is tonight, and it could be very important.

This could be a very close race; If Bernie were to somehow win, which isn't totally out of the question, it would raise bad memories of Michigan. On the flip side, if Hillary's margin is double-digits or more, it's hard to see Bernie retaining any momentum.

It's highly likely at this point that Trump will win. But if Cruz pulls off an upset, he'll take the 30 statewide delegates, and some of the congressional district delegates, so any win makes a difference, no matter how small. At this point, I would project Trump to receive 48 delegates to Cruz's 9. But a cruz win could get him 45 to 12 with just an extra fraction of the vote. If Cruz wins, there could be legitimate concern about Trump getting to 1237. Otherwise, Trump should be just fine.

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