Sunday, January 31, 2016

Week 8: "All Eyes on Iowa" (January 31, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The Iowa Caucuses are tomorrow! Hop along, cause it’s going to be a wild ride of a day.

Days until Iowa Caucuses: 1!!!
Days until New Hampshire Primaries: 9
Days until General Election: 282


A Trumpless Debate
On the Republican side, there was a debate in Iowa. The FOX News debate in itself was not notable: the “experts” say Rand Paul won. The notable thing was the fact that Donald Trump did not attend because he thought moderator/FOX News host Megyn Kelly was biased against him - apparently because at the last debate she asked him a “biased question”. Somehow, this didn’t affect his poll numbers very much.


New York Times/Des Moines Register Endorsements
The two publications listed above both endorsed Hillary Clinton. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, because of her universal establishment support. However, this can’t hurt her. The real news was the two papers’ endorsements on the Republican side. The NYT endorsed John Kasich and the DMR endorsed Marco Rubio. Rubio has had some momentum in Iowa as of late, and this could be the reason.

Upcoming Events:
February 1: The Iowa Caucuses - the first real voting
February 4: Democratic Debate in NH, hosted by MSNBC. Previously unsanctioned by the DNC, that has since changed.

In place of everything else normally here, I give you my...
Personal, Unscientific, Iowa Forecasts

Hillary Clinton - 49.6%
Bernie Sanders - 49.2%
Martin O’Malley - 1.2%

Donald Trump - 27.5%
Ted Cruz - 22.8%
Marco Rubio - 17.8%
Ben Carson - 11.1%
Rand Paul - 6.0%
Jeb Bush - 3.9%
Mike Huckabee - 2.9%
Chris Christie - 2.6%
John Kasich - 2.4%
Carly Fiorina - 1.9%
Rick Santorum - 1.1%

I have no guarantees as to how accurate these will be, they’re just my best guesses based on various sources and data.

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to tomorrow’s results!

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