Monday, February 8, 2016

Week 9: "New Hampshire on the Horizon" (February 7, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the Iowa results come out, but New Hampshire is tomorrow! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Days until NH Primaries: 1
Days until SC Primaries: 12
Days until Super Tuesday: 22
Days until General Election: 274


Rubio Creamed by Christie
There was yet another debate this week. The main story was Marco Rubio repeating a talking point thrice and being grilled by Chris Christie. We’ll see what effect this has on voting, but I think the press is making too big of a deal about it. For more fun, look up the GOP candidates’ entrances.

A Trio of Dropouts
After Iowa, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee dropped out. They all did poor jobs and had little hope going on, although most people figured Rand would hang on at least until New Hampshire. (Results lower down)


Goodbye O’Malley
Martin O’Malley dropped out after finishing with under 1% in Iowa. I feel very bad for the guy. While this can be owed to Iowa’s viability threshold, requiring a candidate to get 15% at a precinct location to receive any credit, Martin was so embarrassed he immediately suspended his campaign.

Upcoming Events:
Feb. 9: New Hampshire Primaries
Feb. 11: Democratic Debate

A Discussion of Iowa Results:
On the Republican side, Ted Cruz won a huge upset win over Donald Trump 27%-24%. Marco Rubio, with last-minute momentum behind him, got 23% surprising everyone and giving him momentum. Ben Carson also got a solid 9%. Nobody else got above 4%. For the Democrats, it was so close they waited two days to call it. Hillary did win in the end, but it was very, very close.

Personal, Unscientific, New Hampshire Forecasts:

Bernie Sanders - 56.2%
Hillary Clinton - 43.8%

Donald Trump - 28.9%
Marco Rubio - 16.5%
John Kasich - 16.2%
Ted Cruz - 13.0%
Jeb Bush - 11.2%
Chris Christie - 5.8%
Carly Fiorina - 4.9%
Ben Carson - 3.3%
Jim Gilmore - 0.1%

Things to Look For:
-Who finishes in second on the Republican side? Everyone is disagreeing on this - various polls: Kasich with 17, Jeb with 18, Rubio with 19, or Cruz with 14. Any of these could happen, and the polling is so erratic that we have no idea,
-How real is Trump? He was upset in Iowa, NH will be a true test.
-How real is Bernie? He could win by 20%+, but if Hillary makes it close, Bernie may not be so strong, especially for the future.

A Final Note
At midnight tonight, three tiny mountain towns will release voting. They’ll combine for under 100 votes, but it’s a curious tradition that will be amusing to watch, at least.

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to tomorrow’s results!

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