Sunday, January 24, 2016

Week 7: "Out of the Bluemberg" (January 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Much has happened this week in the (hectic) election season. I’ll help you make sense of all the news.


Days until Iowa caucuses: 8
Days until New Hampshire primaries: 16
Days until General Election: 289


Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump
You’ve probably seen this before, so it’s not a shock, but former Alaska Governor and 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin endorsed Donald Trump for president. It is the first real endorsement Trump has received, and that’s meaningful. But come on. It has to be from the craziest, most counter-establishment, all around worst person there is? Although I guess it’s Trump, so all bets are off. Remember: he eats pizza with a fork.

Forced to do his Job
Chris Christie has been hanging around New Hampshire a lot as of late - so much, it’s started to grow on him. How much is it growing on him, you ask? Well, Mr. Christie, faced with a snowstorm heading towards his New Jersey, had to make a “difficult” choice: Go back to Jersey to govern his people through extreme weather, or stay in NH picking up votes. He almost chose the former. As parts of New Jersey neared 3 feet of snow, this was a good thing, clearly, but it really shows how much they campaign - they will only grudgingly go do their job.

For Once, Trump Says the Truth
But this time he claimed he could “walk out on Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and it wouldn’t cost him any votes.” Very sad and very, very true.


Bernie Keeps Gaining
For the third week in a row, Bernie Sanders is experiencing more gains in his poll numbers in Iowa, New Hampshire, and even nationally. This could make out to be a very close election season on the Democratic side when a few months ago it looked like there was nothing interesting.


A Third Party Run
Former New York mayor/Billionaire/noted independent/attention-seeker Michael Bloomberg has formed a committee to prepare for a potential run for president. A poll showed him getting 13% against 36% for Clinton and Trump, but he has said he will only run against Sanders and Trump/Cruz. While this worries many Democratic voters, it’s unclear whether he would make a real difference or just get 2% and fade off unnoticed.

Upcoming Events:
Republican debate on FOX News on Thursday, January 28. In Iowa. It will get crazy.

A Look Back:
At this point in 2008:
-Rudy Giuliani was still leading nationally. He won 10 delegates (out of 2,000+).

At this point 2012:
-Ron Paul was leading in Iowa. Eight days later, he’d finish in third.
-Newt Gingrich was leading nationally. He won two states.

State of the Race
My Personal Odds:
Donald Trump - 48%
Ted Cruz - 24%
Marco Rubio - 24%
Jeb! Bush - 3%
All Others - <2%

Hillary Clinton - 75%
Bernie Sanders - 24%
Martin O’Malley - 1%

Iowa Polls:
Donald Trump - 32.2% (up 4.4)
Ted Cruz - 27% (up .3)
Marco Rubio - 12.2% (up .5)
Ben Carson - 7.4% (down 1.3)
All Others - <5%

Hillary Clinton - 45.7%
Bernie Sanders - 45.7%
Martin O’Malley - 5.8%

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/supports/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

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