Sunday, December 27, 2015

Week 3: "Another One Bites the Dust" (December 27, 2015)

Dear Readers,

This week in politics has not been an uneventful one (nor has it been an eventful one - I mean, it’s the holidays, what do you expect?). Trump has continued insulting anyone and everyone in his line of sight, and, most importantly, a candidate has exited the race.

Days until Iowa caucuses: 36
Days until New Hampshire primaries: 44
Days until general election: 316


(Note: Colors represent those used by

And Another One’s Gone
The Republican field of, at its peak, 16 1/2 (That means you, Jim Gilmore) has narrowed in the past weeks. First we lost Rick Perry and Scott Walker, then in November Bobby Jindal dropped out. And, this Monday, Lindsey Graham, who never topped 2% in national polls and was under 3% in his home state of South Carolina, withdrew from the race. Graham’s exit may not appear noteworthy - he was relegated to the undercard debate in every debate he was invited to, and his only endorsement was from his good friend and avid supporter Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). However, he is a well-liked member of the Senate who initially led a mini-crusade against Marco Rubio, and at his exit seemed determined as ever to stop Donald Trump, so we shall see what implications this has for the future.

Trump vs. Hillary
This week, Trump made fun of Hillary Clinton for taking a prolonged bathroom break during last week’s debate. In addition to this, he used some “colorful” language to describe her loss to Obama in 2008. Could this be the end of Donald’s reign? Perhaps, but every time anyone says that, he automatically jumps 3% in the polls, so any drop is doubtful.


Minor Movement in Polls
There have been few polls released since the debate, but most show a small downtick for Hillary Clinton. That being from ~52% to ~50%, the long-term implications seem to be minor, but the one gainer seems to be Martin O’Malley, who recently hit 10% in Iowa for the first time.

Upcoming Events:
One month until Iowa (January 1)
New Year’s Day

Personal, Unscientific, Odds

Ted Cruz, 38%
Marco Rubio, 37%
Donald Trump, 9%
Chris Christie, 7%
Jeb Bush, 4%
All Others, <2%

Hillary Clinton, 90%
Bernie Sanders, 8%
Martin O’Malley, 2%

Sorry that this one was short, not much happens during the holiday weeks. Thanks for reading! Any questions? Feel free to ask me! Happy New Year!

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