Sunday, December 13, 2015

Week 1: "Cruzmania" (December 13, 2015)

Dear Readers,
This week in politics has not been an uneventful one. There have been shifts in polls, outrageous things said, and I am going to help you make sense of it all:
Trump’s Outrageous Claim
Donald Trump on Monday claimed that he would “ban all Muslims from entering the country.” This was so outrageous even fellow presidential hopeful and rigorously anti-ISIS senator Lindsey Graham describes it as horribly racist and terrible.
Trump’s Reign in Iowa Ends
These statements haven’t been met with love from the public; the one poll released since this statement was in Iowa showed Senator Ted Cruz leading Trump by 10%. Compare this to previous polls showing Trump leading by anywhere from 5 to 15% over Cruz or Dr. Ben Carson and this has whopping impact.
Iowa Caucus Milestone
Speaking of Iowa, it is exactly 50 days until the Iowa caucuses. Cruz recently took the lead in the RCP average, and unlike Carson or Trump, he is showing the potential to be a serious politician.
Democratic Overview
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are duking it out for the nomination, but national polls show Hillary with ~55% of the vote, to Bernie’s 35%. Iowa and New Hampshire are slightly closer, with Sanders having a slight majority in New Hampshire. However, sites like BetFair have Clinton’s odds at up to 90%, and it’s her nomination to lose.
Upcoming Events:
CNN Republican Debate on December 15th featuring George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum in the earlier debate at 6:00.
The main 8:30 debate will feature John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Donald J Trump, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie.
Meanwhile, on the 19th there will be a Democratic debate on ABC News featuring Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley.
Personal Odds:
Ted Cruz, 43%
Marco Rubio, 40%
Chris Christie, 7%
Donald J Trump, 4%
All Others, >2%
Hillary Clinton, 87%
Bernie Sanders, 10%
Martin O’Malley, 3%

Thanks for reading! Any questions? Just reply and I’ll be happy to help!

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