Sunday, December 20, 2015

Week 2: "Debate Madness" (December 20, 2015)

Dear Readers,
This week in politics has not been an uneventful one. There were two debates, and Trump could be either finished or invincible. I'm going to help you make sense of it all.
Days until Iowa Caucuses: 43
Days until New Hampshire Primaries: 51
Days until General Election: 323
(Note: Colors represent those used by
Vegas Debate Madness
Of course, there was a debate. With Ted Cruz recently having overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, but Trump rising elsewhere, and the new “frontrunner” status of Marco Rubio, it was an interesting one. And, as FiveThirtyEight put it, it was a “nine-way tie.” If there’s one thing it’s showed, Dr. Ben Carson has continued falling, maybe even more so, and Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and to a lesser extent, Trump and Chris Christie, all have risen in the polls. It also included Rand Paul burning Christie over “BridgeGate,” and, of course, a slew of irrelevant and attention-grabbing statements by Trump. But in the long run, the impact this debate will have is probably pretty low.
Aside from the debate, the one thing grabbing headlines this week was something Jeb Bush said: Calling Donald Trump a “jerk” at a rally in New Hampshire. We will have to wait and see what effect this has, but it’ll probably be minimal. Besides, why state the obvious?
A minor milestone – for the first time, someone has hit 40% in a poll in Iowa – Ted Cruz, who has now built a large lead in Iowa. However, this could change at any time, so it is far from a sure thing.
A Debate In New Hampshire
That’s right, there was a debate. Tucked away on a Saturday, the DNC’s curious strategy to limit viewership is in full effect. There were no memorable moments, as each candidate did his or her best. Polls have not been released since the debate, but it seems as if Hillary Clinton may have edged out Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley in terms of who the “winner” was.
Upcoming Events:
Nothing of much importance.
Personal, Un-Scientific, Odds:
Ted Cruz, 38%
Marco Rubio, 31%
Donald Trump, 13%
Chris Christie, 6%
Jeb Bush, 5%
All Others, <2%
Hillary Clinton, 95%
Bernie Sanders, 4%
Martin O’Malley, 1%
Thanks for reading! Any questions? Disagreements? Want me to change the format? Just reply and I’ll be glad to help!

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