Why You Should Care About the Indiana Primary

The Indiana primary is tonight, and it could be very important.

DEMOCRATS
This could be a very close race; If Bernie were to somehow win, which isn't totally out of the question, it would raise bad memories of Michigan. On the flip side, if Hillary's margin is double-digits or more, it's hard to see Bernie retaining any momentum.

REPUBLICANS
It's highly likely at this point that Trump will win. But if Cruz pulls off an upset, he'll take the 30 statewide delegates, and some of the congressional district delegates, so any win makes a difference, no matter how small. At this point, I would project Trump to receive 48 delegates to Cruz's 9. But a cruz win could get him 45 to 12 with just an extra fraction of the vote. If Cruz wins, there could be legitimate concern about Trump getting to 1237. Otherwise, Trump should be just fine.

Week 21: "Daunting Inevitability" (May 1, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 37

Days until General Election: 191

REPUBLICANS

Trump Dominates the Acela Primary

This past Tuesday five states voted, and Trump hit 50% in all of them and won every delegate, except for a handful in Rhode Island. The closest state was Trump +30 in Connecticut. While these states may have been favorable to him, it’s hard to deny that he should be the nominee, especially considering how well his nearest rival, Ted Cruz, did. Senator Cruz finished in second in only Pennsylvania and failed to register 15% in Connecticut and Rhode Island. If this sends any signal, it’s that he is in a weaker state than previously and that Trump is probably inevitable.

Anti-Trump Forces Gear Up For Uphill Battle in Indiana

The “important” Indiana primary comes this Tuesday. 30 delegates will go to the statewide winner, so whoever wins will receive a needed boost. The Cruz forces boasted that they expected a huge win, but since then the polls have seemed to indicate this might not be the case. In fact, a Marist poll put Trump up 15 in a state that should be strong for Cruz. The Republican voters seem to be tired of this endless process and are willing to cope with a Trump nomination if it means unification. Hard to imagine from a state everyone was calling the “key to denying Trump a majority” just a week ago.

Most Unlikely Person Endorses Trump

Trump earned an endorsement from former Utah governor and 2012 presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, Jr. This is odd because Huntsman has a very moderate ideology, and is a Mormon, a group that notoriously shuns Trump. While Huntsman may not exactly be a party insider, this was a very surprising endorsement. However, it did seem as if Gov. Huntsman just wanted to get the process over with and give his party a better shot in November, so take even this with a grain of salt.

Cruz Announces VP Pick! The Excitement Stops There.

In a bizarre move to rejuvenate his campaign, Ted Cruz announced his VP pick would be Hewlett=Packard CEO and former presidential contender Carly Fiorina. There is no logical reason to make this pick, and the pundits were baffled. Fiorina is from California, which votes next month and is “sure to be crucial” (see also: Indiana). It’s also just a desperate move to get Cruz’s name into the headlines briefly. Aside from a brief September surge, Fiorina was largely irrelevant this campaign, finishing with 1 delegate, 1.9% in Iowa, and 4.1% in New Hampshire before dropping out. Fiorina has already been spotted singing a bizarre song to Cruz’s notorious daughters, and this may not be the last we hear from her, although it could be (see also: Sarah Palin).

DEMOCRATS

Clinton Sweeps 4 of 5

In a stark contrast to Bernie’s run of caucus victories a month ago, Hillary has now won 5 of her last 6 contests. If she wasn’t inevitable before, she sure is now. There is little to no path to victory for the Sanders campaign, who are even losing the grip on upcoming states thought to be favorable terrain, like Kentucky and Oregon. Calls for Bernie to drop out are growing in number, and he’s basically admitted at this point that he’s just an activist candidate.

GREEN PARTY

It’s about time I had a look at some of America’s less loved parties. Currently in the Green party, activist, physician and 2012 party nominee Jill Stein is leading by a lot, having won 13 of 14 contest (William Kreml won his home state of South Carolina). The Green party primaries and conventions will continue until their convention in Houston in early August. The aggressively liberal party has earned ballot access in most states, but are not expected to be a major factor any time soon.

LIBERTARIAN PARTY

The Libertarian convention in May will likely come to a three-way race between New Mexico Governor and 2012 nominee Gary Johnson, businessman Austin Peterson, and tech developer and possible criminal John McAfee. Johnson is expected to win, but the pre-convention debate is the usual method for selecting the nominee, and anyone could win that and skew the results. The party has been suggested as a potential alternative for disaffected conservatives, potentially in the West. It will remain to be seen if this is a legitimate suggestion or an odd libertarian fantasy.

FORECASTS

May 3

Indiana:

Hillary Clinton: 52.2%

Bernie Sanders: 46.5%

May 7

Guam:

Hillary Clinton 70%

Bernie Sanders 27.7%

May 3

Indiana:

Donald Trump: 47.6%

Ted Cruz: 34%

John Kasich: 15.4%

Chances of Winning the Nomination

Clinton 99%

Sanders 1%

Trump 96%

Convention Alternative 4%

Thank you for reading! Make sure to check the blog for coverage of the Indiana primary and more!

Why You Should Care About the Delaware and Rhode Island Primaries

These states may not be close together, but they're both tiny and the primaries are today, so I'm going to combine them.

Delaware

DEMOCRATS
Hillary should easily win here. Bernie could try to keep the margin in low single digits, and it's likely to be closer than Maryland, but there's no real competition here. There hasn't been a ton of polling, but it all points to Clinton +13 or so

REPUBLICANS
The state is winner-take-all and without a doubt Trump will win. He's been seen nearing 60% in polls, and if it were even 20 points closer than that, it wouldn't matter since it's winner-take-all.

Rhode Island

DEMOCRATS
This state is nearly a tossup. A recent PPP poll shows Sanders leading by 4, but since it's the only reliable poll, there's a chance it could be wrong. This state is certainly Sanders' best chance for a win, but there's a chance he may even lose here.

REPUBLICANS
Because of the nature of the delegate allocation here, Trump will certainly lose a few delegates. While I maintain Trump may hit 60%, it will not be easy for him. 

If we say the following vote percentages occur:
Trump 60%
Kasich 27%
Cruz 12%

Then at-large, Trump gets 8 delegates, Kasich receives 3/4, and Cruz gets 1/2.

For each of the two congressional districts, the top three finishers receive 1 delegate each unless

a) someone hits 67%
b) less than three people get 10%

While there is a chance for either of those to occur, let's assume the two congressional districts are similar and they each get one. Then, the final outlook will be:

Trump 10
Kasich 6
Cruz 3

Cruz gets 16% of delegates with 12% of the vote. Kasich gets 32% from 27%, while Trump gets just 53% from 60% of the vote. Whereas in Florida, Trump got 100% of delegates with 46% of the vote.

Tune in for results tonight!

Why You Should Care About The Pennsylvania Primaries

Ah, this is a fun one. The Pennsylvania primary is complex, but it could be key.

DEMOCRATS
Clinton is basically guaranteed victory. However, it could turn out close, or it could be a brutal landslide. The polls are conflicted and there's no way of knowing who's right. Hillary's path leads through a strong showing in Philadelphia. Bernie will try to run up his margin in Appalachia and keep it close.

REPUBLICANS
This is the interesting part. There are 71 Republican delegates. 17 are awarded to the statewide winner, likely to be Trump by a considerable margin. The other 54, however, are selected in each district. Three will be chosen out of a list of delegates on the ballot. This is fairly standard. However, the delegates are unbound and do not list a preference, leading to some more potential Cruz mischief. While many vote for the inner of the Congressional District, others may use their power to help anti-Trump forces.

Week 20: "The Northeast Decides" (April 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 44

Days until General Election: 198

REPUBLICANS

New York Results

... And the results are in and it was a brutal landslide! Trump hit 60% and took 90 of 95 delegates, winning all but one congressional district. The multi-billionaire’s one weak spot was the ultra-wealthy island of Manhattan, which is so painfully ironic. Cruz failed to win a delegate, no doubt thanks to his “New York values” comment. Kasich took his first delegates in over a month by winning 5.

State of the Race

At this point, neither Cruz nor Kasich can get a majority of pledged delegates. This doesn’t mean it will be easy for Trump to get a majority: he needs about 63% of remaining delegates, including winner-take-all states like Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska in which Cruz is favored. While Trump is likely to win when uncommitted delegates are factored in, the path to stopping him runs through two states...

Indiana: Cruz and Trump are about even from limited data here. Whoever wins the state gets a big delegate benefit, and a Wisconsin-like win, or even a slightly better prepared Missouri could reap benefits for Cruz.

California: The biggest state doesn’t come until June 7, and Trump should win, but if it’s anywhere close, expect to see anti-Trump forces bank everything here.

DEMOCRATS

New York Results: This Time It’s Personal

As expected, Hillary won. CNN exit polls initially showed a close 52-48 race. However, in the end it wound up 58-42. A win here prefaces good things to come this Tuesday for the Clinton campaign. Bernie won almost all of upstate New York, but Hillary’s strength in NYC proper and urban areas like Buffalo and Rochester let her easily hang on for the win in her adopted home state. As she said in her victory speech, “This time it’s personal”.

State of the Race

Clinton holds a nearly insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, and an incredible lead in superdelegates. In order for Bernie to win he’d have to get up to 80% in California and break even the rest of the way, which is nearly impossible. And even then, because of his strength in caucuses, Hillary would maintain the popular vote lead and retain enough superdelegates to win anyway.

FORECASTS

April 26

Connecticut: Hillary 56, Bernie 42

Delaware: Hillary 59, Bernie 39

Maryland: Hillary 63, Bernie 36

Pennsylvania: Hillary 54, Bernie 46

Rhode Island: Bernie 52, Hillary 47

April 26

Connecticut: Trump 44, Kasich 33, Cruz 21

Delaware: Trump 52, Kasich 25, Cruz 21

Maryland: Trump 39, Kasich 34, Cruz 26

Pennsylvania: Trump 43, Cruz 29, Kasich 25

Rhode Island: Trump 57, Kasich 28, Cruz 12

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Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage (and previews of the upcoming slew of primaries).