Week 65: A National Embarrassment

Dear Readers,

The election may have been four months ago, but there’s still a ton of political news. Reminder that newsletters and more are always available at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Trump Meets Merkel

Angela Merkel offered Trump a handshake, and Trump awkwardly stared off into the distance. Though, since we all remember what happened last time Trump gave a handshake to a world leader, it might have been for the better. Regardless, it was far from the worst thing about this meeting. When Merkel mentioned refugees, Trump mentioned the old adage “immigration is a privilege, not a right,” something I’m sure Trump’s mother Màiri Anna NicLeòid, who arrived to America with only $50, would’ve loved to hear. Then he “congratulated” Germany on “ripping off” America in trade deals, a bizarre diplomatic strategy that proves Trump doesn’t know squat about diplomacy.

Trump Embraces St. Patrick’s Day with a Nigerian Poem

Speaking of knowing squat about diplomacy, Trump’s response to Saint Patrick’s Day was far from ideal, and his colleagues didn’t do much better. Vice President Mike Pence started his address to Irish PM Enda Kenny by saying “top of the morning,” a stereotype of Irish people created by Americans. Then Kenny met with Trump, who shared a proverb: “Always remember to forget the friends that proved untrue, but never forget to remember those that have stuck by you.” Not only is it not a well-known Irish proverb, it may come from a poem by Nigerian poet Albashir Adam Alhassan, who Trump’s border agents probably wouldn’t let into the country.

Then, Irish-American Paul Ryan said “We went from a president who plays a lot of golf to a president who owns a lot of golf courses. That is about the closest thing you can get to royalty in Ireland.” Keep in mind that golf was invented in Scotland, and the Irish are generally not fans of “royalty”.

The New Health Care Bill: One Train Wreck After Another

Speaking of Paul Ryan screwing up, the prospects for Ryan’s healthcare bill aren’t looking any better. The bill has made enemies from every side of the aisle, and won’t be able to pass the Senate. The bill is a thinly-veiled ploy to give huge tax breaks to the rich, and I, for one, am thrilled that it’s being taken to the trash. Ryan can’t get either the far right or the moderate right on his side, and the disastrous bill may not even pass the house. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Trump’s Shiny New Budget

Speaking of tax breaks to the rich, Trump introduced a despicable budget this week. Among other things, it will cut funding from community development block grants, which fund, among other things, Meals on Wheels, and it’ll turn $54 billion from domestic to military budget. There are very few good things to say about this budget, so here are some bad things:

-It will cut 16% across the board from Health and Human Services

-It will defund the Appalachian Regional Commission

-It will kill the Legal Service Corporation, which helps defend low-income Americans

Kellyanne Conway’s Husband to Receive DOJ Appointment

Speaking of injustice, George Conway, husband of a certain Kellyanne, is about to be appointed to head the Civil Department of the Department of Justice. While Conway is an accomplished lawyer who has argued in front of the Supreme Court, this appointment reeks of nepotism and looks very bad for the President.

Rex Tillerson’s Adventures

Speaking of making the president look bad, Rex Tillerson had a good visit to South Korea. He claimed he was too tired to attend a state meeting, then vehemently denied it and claimed he wasn’t invited. That would be confirmable if Tillerson let any journalists travel with him. Actually, he let one conservative journalist from a tiny paper along, and that journalist is working on a longer piece, and so it’s unlikely we’ll learn what the real deal here is.

Dutch Election Recap

Last week, I talked about the Dutch election. The results were about as expected, with the centrist VVD losing seats. The PvdA, the other members of the current coalition, lost an astounding 29 seats, and Geert Wilders’ Eurosceptic PVV gained 5 seats to become the second biggest party. In the end, thirteen parties won seats, and at least four will be needed to form a coalition. Rutte (the leader of VVD) should be able to easily form a coalition, and the impact is certainly greater for the PvdA than the VVD, but Rutte should take this election as a warning of what may happen in the future.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply or comment.

Week 47: "306-222" (November 13, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The election may have passed but there’s always more news. If at any time you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, feel free to reply and let me know. A reminder that all newsletters (and more) are available at http://electreport.blogspot.com.

What We All Got Wrong

As you may know, the election happened. As you also many know, Donald Trump beat lengthy odds to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, and the presidency. (However, I will note, Hillary Clinton earned more popular votes.) Trump never led in a poll of Wisconsin, and led in just one poll each of Michigan and Pennsylvania (among those taken in the month before the election). The victory came as a shock to many, including myself, who predicted comfortable Hillary Clinton wins in the electoral college. So what went wrong?

The first thing one notices when looking at the results is the surprising sweep of the midwest done by Trump. Five of the six Obama states he picked up were in the midwest (including Pennsylvania, for simplicity). The map excluding the midwest, in fact, looked similar to what many had predicted. So the error found in the polling seems to be specific to this one region. Now, there is one thing Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have in common that no other states do. They all have one or two large, diverse urban centers with rural, largely white, areas around them. Trump’s populist message resonated very well in these rural areas, and when push came to shove, Clinton couldn’t get urban minorities to turn out for her at the same frequency they did for Barack Obama four and eight years before. Indeed, turnout went way down in all these states.

The Ten Reasons the Election Went As It Did

Look, it should have been easy for Hillary Clinton to win this election. Barack Obama’s approval rating hovers around 53%. Trump is the most unpopular presidential candidate in recent history. The economy isn’t looking very negative. So why did Hillary Clinton lose?

1. The Electoral College: I suppose I must address this issue. For the second time in sixteen years, the electoral college elected the candidate with less votes to be president. Defenders of this system will point out that it takes broad appeal to be elected president, and will say it gives voice to smaller states. Critiquers will point out the high failure rate and say it is antiquated.
2. James Comey: The other common scapegoat is James Comey. While his decision to re-open the email investigation may have helped cause a late movement in the polls toward Trump, the polls were tightening anyway, and Comey was just doing his job.
3. Obama not on the Ticket: Barack Obama managed to win such a large victory in 2008 and 2012 largely because he got minorities to turnout more than usual and vote more Democrat than usual . However, with Clinton running instead of Obama, minority turnout fell, largely because Clinton was less inspirational and had less outreach.
4. Clinton’s Own Unpopularity: Trump may have been the most unpopular major party candidate for many years, but Clinton herself had a net unfavorable rating and was viewed unfavorably even by many of her own supporters. The constant reminders of Clinton’s many scandals invaded media coverage and dampened enthusiasm.
5. Clinton’s Perceived Elitism: Many Rust Belt voters who voted for Obama twice were more excited by Trump this year because he was populist like Obama was. He promised working-class voters that they’d get their jobs back, while Clinton did not do very much of the same.
6. Clinton’s Negative Ads: Especially in the midwest, the Clinton campaign ran many negative, anti-Trump ads. This diluted the campaign message and failed to inspire voters. Trump didn’t exactly remain positive, with his own last ad instead featuring anti-Semitic dogwhistles, but he inspired voters much more than Mrs. Clinton did.`
7. Message: The last, most important, reason this election went as it did is one that isn’t covered very often. From the beginning, Trump has made his campaign about “Making America Great Again.” It is a brilliant slogan that means many different things to different people. It matters more than any policy, and conveys the attitude and emotion Trump has into a short statement. Clinton tried many slogans, none of which stuck as well as Trump’s did. I’m not going to say it won him the election, but it definitely helped.

What Happened Downticket

In the Senate, only two seats flipped from the Republicans to the Democrats. In Illinois, Tammy Duckworth defeated Mark Kirk, and Maggie Hassan beat Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. In the end, every Senate race voted the same way as the presidential race in the same state, and that leaves Republicans with 52-48 control, pending a runoff in Louisiana. Democrats similarly picked up just 6 or 7 seats (some races are still uncalled/outstanding) in the House. Gubernatorial races were similarly bleak for the Democratic party. While the map heading in looked like it could result in one or two Democratic pickups, the Republicans gained 3 governorships (still pending results in North Carolina.)

Reactions to the Results

The results of Tuesday have led to three things: a petition to cause faithless electors, future talk about ending the electoral college, and riots and protests.

When the electors of the electoral college vote in December, some of them could possibly vote for a different candidate than that chosen by the states. A petition is being spread around to somehow convince 38 electors to overthrow the democratic process of America and vote for Hillary Clinton. Regardless of who won the popular vote, this sets an awful precedent. The rules were known to both candidates going in, and Clinton herself has accepted the results.

The correct course of action to this, if one is so inclined, is to work to defeat the electoral college for the future. Now, I believe that there are many issues with a national popular vote and the electoral college does have benefits, but if you’re truly worried by the results of the election, this is the correct course of action, not the first or the last things listed here.

Clinton supporters have taken to the streets in major cities in protest. One such protest, in Portland, Oregon, did, indeed turn violent and led to 71 arrests. Thousands yet again took to the streets on 5th avenue in New York. I still think this is the wrong course of action - the sentiment is not bad, but it makes liberals appear whiny and like sore losers. And it completely ignores the huge elephant in the room - the fact that liberal and conservative America have grown increasingly divided. And protests sure won’t help that.

I was going to write about the Bulgarian election and all that, but I really feel like I should end on this message. In the wake of this election, don’t sit around moping, and please, please don’t riot. Instead, go out and listen to the people you disagree with. The one reason I am thankful - or at least, I hope to be thankful - for this election is that it enabled Democrats and Clinton supporters to see past our liberal bubbles. So please don’t disappoint me. Read a Breitbart article. Watch an interview with a midwestern voter on CNN. Dare to see where the other side is coming from. That is what you can do to make your country better.

Thank you for reading. As always, feel free to reply and comment!

Week 41: "That Makes Me Smart" (October 2, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 37

Days until VP Debate: 2

Days until 2nd Presidential Debate: 7

First off, try out this

Recap of the Flaming Trapeze Duel of 2016

Our major story of the night is the debate. After many months of waiting for this day, 85 million people got to watch Hillary Clinton soundly defeat Donald Trump (or so says most of the electorate). Donald Trump provided great moments as saying “That’s called business” when being questioned on the housing collapse, and denying he said climate change was a hoax, when there are recording disputing that fact. Clinton didn’t let Trump interrupt and interject like some of the Republican Candidates did. Clinton has risen 1-2 points in the polls since then, so anybody claiming Trump actually won is wrong. Lester Holt has come under fire for being biased, and it’s partially justified, but it’s nothing compared to Matt Lauer.

How to Run a “Successful Business”

Step 1: Lose a billion dollars

Step 2: Don’t pay federal income taxes for 20 years

Step 3: Run for president

Step 4: We’ll find out in 37 days

The truth about Trump’s taxes has finally been revealed. In 1995, Trump lost $916 million, thanks to horrible mismanagement of multiple businesses, such as the collapse of three casinos and a failed airline, and as a result of that hasn’t paid income taxes since. So, when Trump said “that makes me smart” as to why he possibly hadn’t paid taxes, he was right. He’s made millions in non-taxable income thanks to an odd loophole and remarkable failings as a businessman. Does this mean he would make good deals for America? Of course not. The American budget is not a Ponzi scheme, the World Bank not a loophole. Trump may be smart at not paying, but if elected, he will make us all pay.

Trump Stays Up All Night to Tweet Nasty Things About Former Miss Universe Winner

Trump came under fire at the debate about his dealings with Alicia Machado, a Venezuelan actress who won the first Miss Universe pageant held by Trump. At the time, he called her “Miss Piggy” and “Miss Housekeeping.” So, instead of apologizing, he stayed up until 2:30 to tweet the following:

“Wow, Crooked Hillary was duped and used by my worst Miss U. Hillary floated her as an "angel" without checking her past, which is terrible!”

“Using Alicia M in the debate as a paragon of virtue just shows that Crooked Hillary suffers from BAD JUDGEMENT! Hillary was set up by a con.”

“Did Crooked Hillary help disgusting (check out sex tape and past) Alicia M become a U.S. citizen so she could use her in the debate?”

As a response, Hillary Clinton tweeted at 3 AM the following morning about national service: “It's 3:20am. As good a time as any to tweet about national service.”

Flashback to February: Clinton Insults Sanders Supporters

Donald Trump is having a field day with this soundbite: "Some are new to politics completely. They're children of the Great Recession. And they are living in their parents' basement." Obviously referring to Sanders supporters, Clinton said these not-so-kind words at a fundraiser with very rich donors in mid-February. Sanders’ reaction to this has been mixed, both calling them “correct” and being mildly disturbed. Trump has “asked” Sanders to rescind his endorsement, but this is far from the biggest bombshell of the day.

Final Senate Preview

WASHINGTON:

Senator Patty Murray won the blanket primary (members of all parties listed on one ballot) with 54% of the vote, and her opposition, Chris Vance, has only served as a State Representative,

Rating: Safe D

WISCONSIN:

Ron Johnson, the incumbent, and former Senator Russ Feingold are locked in a rematch of 2010. Feingold has led, usually by a decent margin, in every poll taken so far, and Republicans have basically given up on this race.

Rating: Likely D

Seat Count

51-49 - DEMOCRATS RETAKE SENATE

This Week In World Elections

Colombia: A peace deal with the Farc, a very large communist rebel group, was rejected in a referendum by Colombian voters. The vote was decided by only 63,000 and was disappointing to some. The Colombian president will have to negotiate a new deal, even though he’s already spent 4 years negotiating this one.

Hungary: Hungarian voters have voted to reject the EU’s migrant quota level by a large margin. 98% of people voted against it. However, less than 50% turnout was achieved, so the vote is nullified. The president remarked that there would be “legal consequences”, even if the vote was declared invalid.

Georgia: The ruling Georgian Dream party is expected to win a plurality in the parliamentary elections next week, but how much they will win is unknown. The vote has expanded from 3 parties last election to 8 this time, leading to a lot of uncertainty.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 36: "Clowns to the Left of Me, Jokers to the Right..." (August 28, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 72

What Is Up With Paul LePage?
Paul LePage, Governor of Maine, has been often mentioned as a cabinet appointment for Trump. He was (relatively) quick to endorse Trump in the Republican primary. And this week, he went off the rails. He started by making racist remarks regarding blacks and Hispanics, saying

“I don’t ask them [drug dealers] to come to Maine and sell their poison, but they come. And I will tell you that 90-plus percent of those pictures in my book, and it’s a three-ring binder, are black and Hispanic people from Waterbury, Connecticut, the Bronx and Brooklyn. I didn’t make the rules – I’m just telling you what’s happening.”

After a fellow Maine lawmaker, who happened to be a Democrat, called him out - rightfully - for saying this, he defended his remarks at a town hall and then left the lawmaker a profane voicemail message.

“I’ve spent my life helping black people and you little son-of-a-****, socialist ****, I want you to record this and make it public because I am after you.”

LePage then told a reporter that he’d like to shoot the lawmaker “right between the eyes” in a gun duel.

The Clinton Foundation

This week, the AP found that Hillary Clinton was especially nice to Clinton Foundation donors while Secretary of State. She held a high amount of meetings with high-profile donors and listened to their concerns. This seems like a huge scandal - Why is it not?

That’s because very, very few of the donors’ suggestions ever went anywhere. Clinton may have listened to their concerns, but she merely listened and didn’t do anything about them or give them preferential treatment. She just held dinners with people who’d given money to the Clinton foundation, which does great work and shouldn’t be criticized like this.

Shocking Revelations

Last week, the world met Steve Bannon, Trump’s new campaign CEO. After only a week of media scrutiny, we now know how terrible he is. Some of this information comes from Bannon’s ex-wife, who claims that when choosing schools for his daughters, he decided to choose one school because he “didn’t want them going to school with Jews”. At a school tour, he also asked why there were so many Hanukkah books in the library. He also went to court over domestic violence allegations, though the case was dismissed.

Trump Walks Back His Main Campaign Message - Twice

From the beginning, Donald Trump made it known that his campaign was going to be about building a wall. Between mass deportation, tough border security, and the yuuuuge wall, Trump’s main message was that he was going to be tough on immigration. Guess what he did this week? Well, first, Mike Pence said that he wasn’t sure Trump would actually deport 11 million illegal immigrants, and people in the campaign confirmed this. Then, Trump walked this back, and other people in the campaign confirmed this as well. So, as of now, we have no idea whether Trump will deport anyone, but one thing we do know is that...

Trump’s Amazing Plan to Win Black Voters

...Trump’s new plan about communicating to black voters is terrible and basically overtly racist. After Trump’s bizarre boast that in his re-election campaign, he would win 95% of black voters, was backed up by Trump’s horrendous tweet: “Dwyane Wade's cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago. Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!” His other message to African-Americans was along the lines of “your lives are already terrible - vote for me: what do you have to lose?”

This is, of course, terrible, and will certainly not work.

Clinton Addresses Alt-Right

In Reno this week, Hillary Clinton made a speech about the terrifying conservative movement that has recently grown thanks to Trump’s candidacy, the alt-right.

Some quotes:

“let’s not forget Trump first gained political prominence leading the charge for the so-called ‘Birthers.’”

“This is someone who retweets white supremacists online, like the user who goes by the name “white-genocide-TM.” Trump took this fringe bigot with a few dozen followers and spread his message to 11 million people.”

“The Trump campaign has also selected a prominent white nationalist leader as a delegate in California, and they only dropped him under pressure.

When asked in a nationally televised interview whether he would disavow the support of David Duke, a former grand wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, Trump wouldn’t do it. And only later, again, under mounting pressure, did he backtrack.”

“The latest shake-up was designed to – quote – “Let Trump be Trump.” To do that, he hired Stephen Bannon, the head of a right-wing website called Breitbart.com, as campaign CEO. To give you a flavor of his work, here are a few headlines they’ve published”

Senate Preview #7

MISSOURI:

Normally, a state like Missouri shouldn’t have a competitive senate race. However, Jason Kander is only about 5 points behind Roy Blunt in the polling average. Kander, the secretary of state, is a moderate, and there is a small possibility he can defeat sitting Senator Blunt.

Rating: Likely R

NEVADA:

Nevada is the only competitive senate race currently held by a Democrat. Harry Reid, current Senate Minority Leader, is retiring. Running to fill his seat are Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez-Masto and Representative Joe Heck. Polling is competitive, but Nevada polls are notorious for being wrong and inexact.

Rating: Tilt D

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Senator Kelly Ayotte’s re-election chances are in danger. Governor Maggie Hassan currently leads in most polls, and is receiving a lot of funding from Democrats nationwide. Trump’s disastrous margin in New Hampshire could spell the end of Ayotte.

Rating: Lean D

Seat Count:

43-42

This Week In World Elections

Gabon: The Gabonese election was held this week, but both president Ali Bongo Ondimba and diplomat Jean Ping are claiming victory. Results are not yet known, and there are insults being hurled by both sides.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 35: "#WheresHillary? Sleeping!!!!" (August 21, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 79

Trump’s New Campaign Manager

This week in Trump’s campaign has been - hectic, to say the least. It all started last Sunday when Trump’s campaign manager Paul Manafort was found having received a little bit of money from Ukraine. And by a little bit, I mean upwards of $10 million. Following this, and Trump’s recent comments regarding Russia, it was announced that the FBI has been investigating the companies who had sent the money to Manafort. There have also been some ties between Manafort and the invasion of Crimea, as well as between him and corrupt former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych. (Read more here, here, and here). After all this, Manafort resigned. So, Trump needed a new campaign manager.

Where did he turn? To start, he named his campaign CEO, Stephen Bannon! Who is that?

“Stephen Bannon is an Irish-born British film director, film producer and music video director. He is best known for directing the films Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (1990), Coneheads (1993) and the innovative music videos for a-ha's "Take on Me" and Michael Jackson's "Billie Jean".”

Wait, never mind. That’s Steven Barron. Bannon is the owner of Breitbart, an alt-right pro-Trump site that features terrible people like Milo Yiannopoulos (that’s not just me being biased - just this week Yiannopoulos stole $100,000 that was supposed to go to charity!) He was also involved in the making of Clinton Cash.

For his campaign manager, he chose Kellyanne Conway. Conway had been one of Trump’s advisors for a total of a month and a half, and is also the head of the “Defeat Crooked Hillary PAC”. She also defended Todd Akin after he made an absolutely horrible statement about rape, and said the Republicans were wrong to criticize him.

Trump Is Still Mad at the Media

“I have been drawing very big and enthusiastic crowds, but the media refuses to show or discuss them. Something very big is happening!”

“The reporting at the failing @nytimes gets worse and worse by the day. Fortunately, it is a dying newspaper.”

And this doesn’t have to do with the media, but another couple of A+ quotes from his Twitter:

“They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT!”

“#WheresHillary? Sleeping!!!!!”

Guess Who’s Back?

Trump’s new foreign policy advisor is... Michele Bachmann! “Former Minnesota Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann said she has been advising Trump on foreign policy and issues of concern to Christian conservatives. She said Trump is right to call for more restrictive immigration policies.

“He also recognizes there is a threat around the world, not just here in Minnesota, of radical Islam,” she said.”  (MPR News) Bachmann, a former 2012 presidential candidate, has about as much foreign policy experience as I do, and demonstrated that here by implying radical Islam is a major problem in Minnesota, and also the world.

EMAILS

Another twist in the non-issue that is Hillary Clinton’s email server happened this week when Judge Emmet G. Sullivan ruled that Clinton must “provide written testimony under oath about why she set up a private computer server to send and receive emails while secretary of state” (NYTimes). This is bad news for all of us who thought we were done with this after Comey’s decision, but I don’t believe this questioning will lead to any great revelations one way or another.

Polling Outlook

Averages in key swing states:

Arizona: Trump +2

Georgia: Trump +0.5

Iowa: Clinton +0.3

Nevada: Clinton +1.7

North Carolina: Clinton +2.2

Ohio: Clinton +3

Florida: Clinton +4.1

Pennsylvania: Clinton +8.7

Virginia: Clinton +10.3

New Hampshire: Clinton +11.3

Senate Preview #4

KENTUCKY:

Senator and former presidential candidate Rand Paul faces a tougher battle than he should in a state like Kentucky. His challenger is Jim Gray, mayor of Lexington. Polling shows Paul modestly ahead of Gray, but Kentucky has a history of electing moderate Democrats (just ask Steve Beshear).

Rating: Likely R

LOUISIANA:

David Vitter, who lost the 2015 gubernatorial race to John Bel Edwards thanks to brilliant attack advertising, is not running for a third term. Now, Louisiana’s elections work differently than most. On November, candidates from every party will be on the ballot, and the top two will advance to a runoff. Because of the magnitude of the field this time, there is thus a distinct possibility that white supremacist, former Klan leader, and former State Senator David Duke does a good enough job to make the runoff. So far, polling shows John Neely Kennedy with a large lead, but that was before Duke’s announcement, which cited Trump as a major factor in his decision to run.

Rating: Safe R, but if it’s Duke vs. a Democrat that could change

MARYLAND:

Barbara Mikulski’s years in the Senate have ended, and her successor will likely be Chris Van Hollen. Van Hollen, a US Representative, fought a tough primary against Donna Edwards, another Representative. Van Hollen ultimately won by 15 points and faces Kathy Szeliga, State Delegate.

Rating: Safe D

Seat Count:

42-40

This Week In World Elections

Gabon: Next Saturday, Gabon heads to the polls to vote for their next president. Their campaign season of 2 weeks makes ours look... very, very, very long. President Ali Bongo Ondimba is expected to win re-election. Other than some question on whether Ondimba is legally allowed to be president, since there are rumors that he was adopted, he should be able to win easily.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!