Week 19: "They Should See A Psychiatrist" (April 17, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There has been a lot of news this week. I’m going to guide you through it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Countdowns:

Days until June 7 (Final Primaries): 51

Days until General Election: 205

REPUBLICANS

Cruz Campaign Continues to Outsmart Trump

One common theme that’s recently emerged in the campaign is Ted Cruz’s campaign fishing for delegates every way possible as Trump’s campaign looks on, shaken. At the second half of the Wyoming convention this week, Cruz took all 12 delegates. At the Georgia convention, Cruz’s campaign loaded even Trump delegate slots with Cruz supporters, which in the likely event of a contested convention will matter greatly.

Said Cruz campaign manager, Jeff Roe, “[the campaign] is a multilevel Rubik’s Cube. Trump thought it was a golf ball — you just had to whack it.” Cruz has given himself the advantage in a brokered convention through his mastery of the process. On the other hand, Trump couldn’t even line up a speaker for the Wyoming convention, after Sarah Palin said she couldn’t make it. When Palin is your first choice and you have no second choice, you seem pretty vulnerable.

Paul Ryan Not to Accept Nomination at Convention

Another possibility at the convention would be the nomination of somebody who had failed to run: A common name is Paul Ryan. However, this week Speaker Ryan said he wouldn’t like the nomination, and urged delegates to note vote for him, saying he wouldn’t accept the nomination. Another person to fall in the path of future President Schwarzenegger!

DEMOCRATS

Candidates’ Brawl Gets Bloodier

The Clinton and Sanders campaigns have been duking it out for months, and this week was no exception. At the Thursday debate in Brooklyn, the candidates argued over everything from tax returns to Israel. My friend Elias Gerstein, who was at the debate, said: “I think Bernie went crazy! He lost the debate, but he brought up some amazing ideas on minimum wage.” Both candidates are geared towards Tuesday’s New York primary, holding huge rallies and campaigning every inch of the state. While Hillary is favored, this state is still a must-win for the Sanders campaign.

Bernie Releases Tax Returns, Goes to Rome

In a bizarre move, Bernie Sanders left the campaign trail to meet with Pope Francis in Rome and make a speech. It’s unclear the particular motivation for this, and the pope said, "When I came down, I greeted them, shook their hands and nothing more. This is good manners. It's called good manners and not getting mixed up in politics. If anyone thinks that greeting someone means getting involved in politics, they should see a psychiatrist.”

Also this week, Bernie released his tax returns, something he has long been pressured to do. Hillary, however, still refuses to release her Wall Street speeches.

FORECASTS

New York (4/19):

Hillary Clinton 56.2%

Bernie Sanders 42.7%

New York (4/19):

Donald Trump 55.1%, 80 delegates

John Kasich 26%, 12 delegates

Ted Cruz 18.6%, 3 delegates

ODDS

Hillary Clinton 99.2%

Bernie Sanders .8%

Donald Trump 52%

Ted Cruz 36%

John Kasich 6%

Paul Ryan/Mitt Romney 3%

Other 3%

Chaos: 100%

Thanks for reading! Make sure to check the blog for updated coverage, especially as the New York primary draws near. Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 13: "Mythbusting" (March 6, 2016)

Dear Readers,

There have been a ton of results and important stories this week. I’ll help guide you through all of it. There’s also a debate right now on CNN in (Flint)!

Countdowns:

Days until Super Tuesday 2: 9

Days until General Election: 247

REPUBLICANS

A Results Guide

On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump came out with the greatest haul. He won 7 states to Ted Cruz’s 3 and Marco Rubio’s lone win, in Minnesota. Then on “Super Saturday”, Cruz and Trump each won two. This morning, Rubio won Puerto Rico. Currently, the delegate race is shaping up to be Trump vs. Cruz, with a sizable edge for Trump. Rubio is quite far back, but his 71% haul in Puerto Rico can’t have hurt.

Nancy Reagan Dies at 94

Former first lady Nancy Reagan died this morning at the age of 94. She was the wife of a beloved Republican icon, but in terms of the race, this shouldn’t make much of an impact. Rest in peace, Nancy Reagan.

The Fight Keeps Growing

Trump, Rubio, and Cruz keep arguing with each other and creating a great ruckus. This past week, Trump and Rubio had a long argument about the size of their “hands”. It was a peculiar show of... manliness? It’s very unclear as to why they decided to have this argument.

DEMOCRATS

A Results Guide

On Super Tuesday, Clinton won 8 states to Sanders’ 4. On Super Saturday, Bernie Sanders emerged with decisive victories in Kansas and Nebraska, while Hillary won Louisiana. Maine was recently called for Bernie, with 80% of returns having come in so far. Currently, Hillary has won 12 states, and Bernie has won 8. However, Hillary’s delegate lead, both pledged and unpledged (more on that later), is large and still growing.

SOME FORECASTS:

HAWAI’I: Rubio +18

IDAHO: Cruz +4

MICHIGAN: Trump +16

MISSISSIPPI: Trump +24

MICHIGAN: Clinton +16

MISSISSIPPI: Clinton +58

DC: Rubio +23

GUAM: [UNPLEDGED]

WYOMING: [UNPLEDGED]

NORTHERN MARIANAS: Clinton +37

POLITICAL MYTHBUSTING

I’ve been seeing a lot of misconceptions being passed around this election season, and I’m afraid certain things are being misreported. Let me clear some things up for you:

SUPERDELEGATES

The Democratic side has a unique concept called superdelegates. They are party officials who are not bound by any results. Hillary Clinton possesses an incredible lead among them.

THE REPORT: Superdelegates are “rigged” and “unfair” and are trying to take say away from the people and will eliminate any chance of Bernie winning the nomination.

THE TRUTH: Superdelegates are a long-established system that tries to help the Democrats have the more “presidential” nominee in the case of a close election. They can change their minds at any time, and at this point in 2008, Hillary led Barack by a lot. If Bernie indeed winds up with a popular vote majority, superdelegates will probably switch to support him.

THE DAMN COIN FLIPS

THE REPORT: At the Iowa Caucuses, 44 delegates were awarded, and 6 were decided by coin flips, all of which Hillary won.

THE TRUTH: These coin flips were used to decide statewide delegates, of which there are thousands. They are used when the amount of “Uncommitted” disrupts the amount of state delegates awarded. They didn’t make any noticeable difference.

BROKERED CONVENTIONS

First off, the right term is “contested convention”, not “brokered convention”

Secondly, everyone has been saying they’ll happen and Romney or Biden will be nominated or something.

THE TRUTH: It’s not going to happen. With only 2 candidates left, someone on the Democratic side is guaranteed a majority. On the Republican side, Trump should receive delegates. If he doesn’t, he’ll probably be close enough that everyone else withdraws, and thus he’ll get a majority. But theoretically, yes, anything could happen.

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just comment!

Week 12: "A Tuesday That's Super" (February 28, 2016)

Dear Readers,

This week has been a traffic jam on I-95 filled with news. I’ll help you make sense of all that’s happened.

Countdowns:

Days until Super Tuesday: 2

Days until General Election: 254

REPUBLICANS

Trump Endorsed by KKK, Christie

Donald Trump was endorsed by some notable individuals this week. New Jersey Governor and unsuccessful candidate Chris Christie endorsed him, for one. Considering some of the ways Christie attacked Trump, this came as a surprise to many. This is a desperate plea for Christie to remain relevant/get a cabinet position. Another group of individuals that endorsed him were... the Ku Klux Klan (and prominent member/former congressman David Duke). Trump accepted the endorsement with... not closed arms. He refused to disavow Duke’s endorsement specifically.

[UNINTELLIGIBLE YELLING]

There was a debate, and nobody won. The moderators didn’t control the screaming, and the candidates did just that: Scream. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio yelled at each other until the closed captioners gave up. All three attacked each other relentlessly, and Kasich and Carson may have shown up, speaking for seemingly no time at all.

Rubio: “Maybe Trump Peed himself”

I’m going to let this quote tell the story for itself: “...First he had this little makeup thing, applying makeup around his mustache, because he had one of those sweat mustaches. Then he asked for a full-length mirror. I don’t know why, because the podium goes up to here. Maybe he was making sure his pants weren’t wet. I don’t know.” -Marco Rubio

Nevada-mination

The Nevada Republican Caucuses occurred! And... Trump got 46%. The GOP itself promptly gave up, and some of its members (see above) even endorsed him. If anyone wants to catch him, something has to happen fast.

DEMOCRATS

South Carolina

The Democrats dueled in South Carolina yesterday, and Clinton walked out with 73% to Bernie’s 26.5%. This sure to be a bad moment for the Sanders campaign, and the nomination may effectively have been decided.

A MILLION FORECASTS

Super Tuesday:

ALABAMA: Trump +17

ALASKA: Trump +14

ARKANSAS: Cruz +2

GEORGIA: Trump +8

MASSACHUSETTS: Trump +25

MINNESOTA: Trump +1

OKLAHOMA: Trump +10

TENNESSEE: Trump +21

TEXAS: Cruz +5

VERMONT: Trump +17

VIRGINIA: Trump +3

ALABAMA: Clinton +39

AMERICAN SAMOA: Clinton +51

ARKANSAS: Clinton +28

COLORADO: Sanders +4

GEORGIA: Clinton +30

MASSACHUSETTS: Sanders +3

MINNESOTA: Clinton +12

OKLAHOMA: Clinton +25

TENNESSEE: Clinton +33

TEXAS: Clinton +23

VERMONT: Sanders +77

VIRGINIA: Clinton +13

March 5th/6th (of course, these will be impacted by Tuesday’s results, so accuracy will be low):

KANSAS: Trump +18

KENTUCKY: Trump +15

LOUISIANA: Trump +22

MAINE: Trump +13

PUERTO RICO: Rubio +46

KANSAS: Clinton +18

LOUISIANA: Clinton +29

MAINE: Sanders +10

NEBRASKA: Clinton +27

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply!

Week 10: "Moving South and West" (February 14, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the New Hampshire results come out, but South Carolina and Nevada are coming! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Countdowns:

Days until SC Primaries: 5 for Republicans, 12 for Democrats

Days until NV Caucuses: 5 for Democrats, 8 for Republicans

Days until Super Tuesday: 15

Days until General Election: 267

REPUBLICANS

New Hampshire Results

Let’s get it out of our systems. Yes, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. No surprise there. The surprise was second place, won by John Kasich. This sparked a lot of momentum. The main story was how much Marco Rubio dropped. His atrocious debate killed his momentum and he struggled to reach 10%.

Another Dropout Trio

After New Hampshire, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out. They both failed to reach the 10% threshold required for receiving delegates. Meanwhile, notable 0% getter Jim Gilmore finally decided to hang up his aspirations. Many wondered, “Why now, Jim?” But nobody cared enough to actually ask. Farewell to all three.

Has Trump Gone Mad?

There was another debate! (Really. ANOTHER.) This one featured intense amounts of argument and clash. Trump insulted George W. Bush, leaving Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to defend the popular (among Republicans) former president. Trump played aggressive and many question his strategy. Ted Cruz faded away and made no real impression. Ben Carson fell asleep (again) and John Kasich was clearly tired of being the only moderate voice.

DEMOCRATS

New Hampshire Results

New Hampshire has really Felt the Bern©. Bernie Sanders earned 60% of the vote, dwarfing Hillary’s 38%. Nobody expected this large of a margin of victory, and the Sanders camp was very pleased.

Upcoming Events:

Feb 20: South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Personal, Unscientific, Nevada Forecasts:

Hillary Clinton 53.8%

Bernie Sanders 46.2%

Personal, Unscientific, South Carolina Forecasts:

Donald Trump - 34.5%

Ted Cruz - 24.1%

Marco Rubio - 14.7%

John Kasich - 11%

Jeb Bush - 10.1%

Ben Carson - 5.6%

Things to Look For:

-How real is the Kasich surge?

-The order Rubio, Kasich, and Jeb finish in

-How good is Cruz’s ground game (How much does he overperform by)

-How well Bernie does. A recent poll shows them tied!

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to Saturday’s results! And lastly, HAPPY PRESIDENT’S DAY!

Week 9: "New Hampshire on the Horizon" (February 7, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the Iowa results come out, but New Hampshire is tomorrow! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Countdowns:

Days until NH Primaries: 1

Days until SC Primaries: 12

Days until Super Tuesday: 22

Days until General Election: 274

REPUBLICANS

Rubio Creamed by Christie

There was yet another debate this week. The main story was Marco Rubio repeating a talking point thrice and being grilled by Chris Christie. We’ll see what effect this has on voting, but I think the press is making too big of a deal about it. For more fun, look up the GOP candidates’ entrances.

A Trio of Dropouts

After Iowa, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee dropped out. They all did poor jobs and had little hope going on, although most people figured Rand would hang on at least until New Hampshire. (Results lower down)

DEMOCRATS

Goodbye O’Malley

Martin O’Malley dropped out after finishing with under 1% in Iowa. I feel very bad for the guy. While this can be owed to Iowa’s viability threshold, requiring a candidate to get 15% at a precinct location to receive any credit, Martin was so embarrassed he immediately suspended his campaign.

Upcoming Events:

Feb. 9: New Hampshire Primaries

Feb. 11: Democratic Debate

A Discussion of Iowa Results:

On the Republican side, Ted Cruz won a huge upset win over Donald Trump 27%-24%. Marco Rubio, with last-minute momentum behind him, got 23% surprising everyone and giving him momentum. Ben Carson also got a solid 9%. Nobody else got above 4%. For the Democrats, it was so close they waited two days to call it. Hillary did win in the end, but it was very, very close.

Personal, Unscientific, New Hampshire Forecasts:

Bernie Sanders - 56.2%

Hillary Clinton - 43.8%

Donald Trump - 28.9%

Marco Rubio - 16.5%

John Kasich - 16.2%

Ted Cruz - 13.0%

Jeb Bush - 11.2%

Chris Christie - 5.8%

Carly Fiorina - 4.9%

Ben Carson - 3.3%

Jim Gilmore - 0.1%

Things to Look For:

-Who finishes in second on the Republican side? Everyone is disagreeing on this - various polls: Kasich with 17, Jeb with 18, Rubio with 19, or Cruz with 14. Any of these could happen, and the polling is so erratic that we have no idea,

-How real is Trump? He was upset in Iowa, NH will be a true test.

-How real is Bernie? He could win by 20%+, but if Hillary makes it close, Bernie may not be so strong, especially for the future.

A Final Note

At midnight tonight, three tiny mountain towns will release voting. They’ll combine for under 100 votes, but it’s a curious tradition that will be amusing to watch, at least.

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to tomorrow’s results!