Sunday, February 14, 2016

Week 10: "Moving South and West" (February 14, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Not only have the New Hampshire results come out, but South Carolina and Nevada are coming! Hop along, and I’ll tell you all you need to know.

Days until SC Primaries: 5 for Republicans, 12 for Democrats
Days until NV Caucuses: 5 for Democrats, 8 for Republicans
Days until Super Tuesday: 15
Days until General Election: 267


New Hampshire Results
Let’s get it out of our systems. Yes, Donald Trump won New Hampshire. No surprise there. The surprise was second place, won by John Kasich. This sparked a lot of momentum. The main story was how much Marco Rubio dropped. His atrocious debate killed his momentum and he struggled to reach 10%.

Another Dropout Trio
After New Hampshire, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina dropped out. They both failed to reach the 10% threshold required for receiving delegates. Meanwhile, notable 0% getter Jim Gilmore finally decided to hang up his aspirations. Many wondered, “Why now, Jim?” But nobody cared enough to actually ask. Farewell to all three.

Has Trump Gone Mad?
There was another debate! (Really. ANOTHER.) This one featured intense amounts of argument and clash. Trump insulted George W. Bush, leaving Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to defend the popular (among Republicans) former president. Trump played aggressive and many question his strategy. Ted Cruz faded away and made no real impression. Ben Carson fell asleep (again) and John Kasich was clearly tired of being the only moderate voice.


New Hampshire Results
New Hampshire has really Felt the Bern©. Bernie Sanders earned 60% of the vote, dwarfing Hillary’s 38%. Nobody expected this large of a margin of victory, and the Sanders camp was very pleased.

Upcoming Events:
Feb 20: South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Democratic Caucuses

Personal, Unscientific, Nevada Forecasts:
Hillary Clinton 53.8%
Bernie Sanders 46.2%

Personal, Unscientific, South Carolina Forecasts:
Donald Trump - 34.5%
Ted Cruz - 24.1%
Marco Rubio - 14.7%
John Kasich - 11%
Jeb Bush - 10.1%
Ben Carson - 5.6%

Things to Look For:
-How real is the Kasich surge?
-The order Rubio, Kasich, and Jeb finish in
-How good is Cruz’s ground game (How much does he overperform by)
-How well Bernie does. A recent poll shows them tied!

Thanks for reading! Any suggestions/criticisms are welcome, just reply! Make sure to pay attention to Saturday’s results! And lastly, HAPPY PRESIDENT’S DAY!

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