Sunday, June 12, 2016

Week 27: "Officially Official" (June 12, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at
Days until General Election: 149


Final Primary Recap
The final primaries were this Tuesday, and Trump, of course, ran unopposed. Here’s the rundown:

California: Trump received 75% on the way to an easy victory. He reached 70% in all but 2 counties.

Montana: Trump got 73%

New Jersey: Trump’s only 80% state this primary season, though he only barely reached that. Trump’s results included an eye-popping 88% in Ocean County.

New Mexico: Trump got 71% but had his worst county of the night, reaching 54% in McKinley county. Jeb Bush got 3.4% of the vote

South Dakota: Easily his weakest state, as he received only 67%

Paul Ryan Has Ceased to Make Sense

This Tuesday, Speaker Paul Ryan responded to Trump’s comments about judge Gonzalo Curiel by “disavowing” and “regretting” them. He called the remarks racist, in fact “the textbook definition of a racist comment,” but he maintained his support for Trump. “Do I think Hillary Clinton is the answer? No, I do not.”

Other Republican Congresspeople were more bold
Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL): “I cannot and will not support my party’s nominee for president.” Kirk is caught in a very tough re-election race, and he has been trying to distance himself from Trump because of that.

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ): “If Donald remains Donald, I will not vote for him.”

Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN): Trump could pass a certain line and lose his support. “This is a crucial two- or three-week period. If at the end of June, moving into a convention and still not having pivoted toward being more of a general election candidate would prove to be very problematic.”

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL): “I stand by everything I said during the campaign”


Final Primary Recap
Hillary cruised to victory in New Jersey, taking 63% of the vote. She also took California by 12 points, a bigger margin than most predicted (except yours truly). She won New Mexico and South Dakota by 3 points each. People expected Sanders to win South Dakota (again, I didn’t), so that was a bit of a shock. Montana was also closer than expected, with Sanders only getting a hair above 50%. North Dakota, as a caucus, was an easy Sanders win.

With those wins, Clinton clinched a majority of both pledged and overall delegates, meaning that she, like Trump, is now the presumptive nominee. Her delegate lead over Sanders is ~900. Sanders would need to win all the delegates from next week’s D. C. primary, win the 89 uncommitted superdelegates, and he’d still have to win over 421 of hillary’s superdelegates (approximately 73%).

Obama Endorses Clinton
President Obama issued his endorsement of the presumptive nominee this week. This isn’t a surprise, but his endorsement was very moving and he called on Democrats to unite.

Sanders Doesn’t Concede
Despite his loss, Senator Sanders remains in the race. He will contest the District of Columbia’s Tuesday primary and try to push his issues until the convention. While he may drop out after the DC primary, even that is not a given. However, he says he will work as hard as he can with Clinton to help defeat Trump. "I look forward to meeting with (Clinton) in the near future to see how we can work together to defeat Donald Trump and to create a government which represents all of us and not just the 1%," he said.

One reason Sanders should lose hope is that progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has endorsed Clinton and came out with a blazing speech destroying Trump.



District of Columbia: Hillary Clinton 72%, Bernie Sanders 28%

This Week In World Elections

United Kingdom: As the UK’s referendum to leave the EU approaches, polls have tightened, and “Leave” has taken the lead in the average. The referendum is on June 23, and at this point, the result is a complete tossup. One thing is for sure, however. Gibraltar will decide to remain in the EU.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

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