Week 31: "Vote Your Conscience" (July 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 107

The RNC!

From Monday to Thursday last week, the Republican Party gathered in Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio for the 2016 RNC. There were many great successes, and the most important part of it - Trump’s speech - was met well. That is not to say that there were no low points either. First, on Monday, there was a ton of chaos when the chair supposedly didn’t call a vote on the rules the right way, and the floor erupted into madness for many minutes. Ted Cruz, in his speech on Wednesday, refused to endorse Trump and told people to “vote your conscience” and was met with many boos.

Meet Tim Kaine: Clinton’s Vice Presidential Candidate

Much like her nomination, Clinton’s VP choice was anything but a surprise. Tim Kaine, Virginia Senator, was an 80% favorite for the choice on betting markets in the week leading up to the decision, but nonetheless, it’s news! Kaine hails from an important swing state (Virginia) and brings rock-solid liberal credentials and a good relationship with Clinton herself. The one downside is that many Bernie supporters may not view him as progressive enough, and may not vote in November for that reason.

What I said about Tim in May:

“At this point, Kaine is the safest choice. An inoffensive moderate from key swing state Virginia with no dooming background, there’s no glooming negatives. He may be fairly boring and not a great pick to win over disaffected Sanders voters, but he could be a good Bentsen-type pick to balance the ticket without drawing too much attention away from Clinton.”

Polling Outlook

Colorado: Clinton +8

Virginia: Clinton +5

Michigan: Clinton +5

New Hampshire: Clinton +4

Pennsylvania: Clinton +3

North Carolina: Clinton +2

Ohio: Clinton +1

Florida: Even

Iowa: Even

Electoral Vote Count:

294-53-191

Senate Preview #2

ARKANSAS:

Incumbent John Boozman easily wrapped up his party’s nomination. He now opposes Attorney Conner Eldridge. Boozman got 58% of the vote in 2010, and polling shows he may get more this time around.

Rating: Safe R

CALIFORNIA:

Incumbent Barbara Boxer declined to seek re-election, and the jungle primary (in which the top two vote-getters, no matter the party, advance to the general) will feature two Democrats: Kamala Harris, the California Attorney General, and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Harris is currently favored.

Rating: Guaranteed D, Likely Harris

COLORADO:

Michael Bennet, the incumbent, chose to seek re-election. He faces Darryl Green, El Paso County commissioner. This race could be very close, as Bennet won by under 2% in 2010. However, polling says otherwise.

Rating: Likely D

This Week In World Elections

Sao Tome and Principe: The Sao Tomean presidential election last Sunday ended in a resounding victory for Evaristo Carvalho, former Prime Minister, with him receiving 50% of the vote, meaning that there should’ve been no runoff necessary. Despite that, there will be a runoff between Carvalho and incumbent Manuel Pinto da Costa on August 7th.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!