Week 30: "Pence!" (July 17, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 114

The general election is now very close, and in the past three weeks a lot has happened. First,

Meet Mike Pence: Trump’s Vice Presidential Candidate

After my list of 10 possible choices for Trump, he went with Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN), who didn’t cross my mind when making my list. For me, having been out of the loop for weeks, it was a surprising choice, but he was on the very short shortlist, along with Gingrich and Christie, so it’s not like he came out of nowhere. To pretend these choices will significantly alter the results is to lie to one’s self, but out of all the choices, this wasn’t the best. Sure, he may be from the midwest, but he doesn’t bring in establishment support, a demographic group, or very many positives. He’s not even from a swing state, just a state that borders Ohio.

Bullet Points:

-Clinton is not guilty of anything regarding emails

-Sanders endorsed Clinton, finally

-An innumerable amount of people - including Sarah Palin -won’t be at the RNC next week.

-The Republican National Convention starts tomorrow!

Senate Preview #1

ALABAMA:

Richard Shelby, five-term incumbent, is seeking re-election at the age of 82. His main opposition comes from an activist named Ron Crumpton. This race will be uninteresting, Shelby will pull a very, very, large amount of the vote.

Rating: Safe R

ALASKA:

Lisa Murkowski, a two-term incumbent, is seeking re-election. Murkowski made news last cycle (2010) by being defeated in the primary and then coming back to win as an independent. And she may lose in the primary again (the primary is on August 16th). Her most notable challenger is mechanic Bob Lochner. On the Democratic side, the two main candidates are former Seward mayor Edgar Blatchford and former State Rep. Ray Metcalfe. Knowing Alaska, this race could turn close, but for now it seems Murkowski should win handily.

Rating: Safe R

ARIZONA:

The incumbent, John McCain, faces some hurdles in an attempt to get re-re-re-re-re-elected. He faces primary opposition from State Sen. Kelli Ward, and general election opposition from Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Arizona will be a good opportunity for the Democrats to earn a surprise seat, but it’s not as likely to flip as some other states, so it’s unlikely that it will be the key to the 50th seat.

Rating: Lean R

This Week In World Elections

Sao Tome and Principe: The presidential election’s first round, between five candidates, including incumbent Manuel Pinto da Costa, is today. The run-off, if necessary, will be held on August 7th. Pinto da Costa won last election by 4,000 votes, over Evaristo Carvalho, a former Prime Minister who is also running this year.

What you missed over the past three weeks:

Australia: Coalition earned a slight majority, getting 50.34% of the vote, leading Labor by 8 seats.

Japan: Shinzo Abe’s liberal Democrats kept their majority in the house of councillors. They had 15% of the vote more than their nearest challenger, the Democratic Party.

Mongolia: The Mongolian People’s Party won 65 of the 76 seats to the Grand Hural.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!