Week 32: "Donald Trump Told A Really Hilarious Joke" (July 31, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 100

The DNC!

And this week, the Democrats countered with their own convention. Facing a 3-point Trump convention bump, Democrats had a reason to be slightly worried. They did have an advantage in that their entire party showed up (the same cannot be said for the Republicans), and objectively that entire party did a good job. It wasn’t a smooth ride - DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz agreed to resign, and was then heckled endlessly - but most people, Democrats and Republicans, agree that it helped unify the party and most speeches were great. Hillary’s own speech wasn’t amazing, but it did its job, and other speakers like Tim Kaine, the Obamas, Bill Clinton, and Cory Booker were very good. The nominating speech was, of course, delivered by Bernie Sanders.

Another important speech was Michael Bloomberg’s endorsement of Clinton, an important moment for swaying independents. The best received speech, however, was that of Khizr Khan, father of a Muslim soldier killed while serving in the military.

Hillary Endorsed by Houston Chronicle and Washington Post

In an unprecedented move, the Houston Chronicle, Texas’ biggest newspaper, endorsed Hillary Clinton. It’s a lot earlier than most newspapers would endorse, of course. Their reasoning for this was claiming Trump is a “danger to the republic”. The Washington Post similarly endorsed Clinton, writing a long essay of reasons why Trump shouldn’t be president. Read it here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/donald-trump-is-a-unique-threat-to-american-democracy/2016/07/22/a6d823cc-4f4f-11e6-aa14-e0c1087f7583_story.html?tid=a_inl

WikiLeaks Hacks DNC, Releases Emails

WikiLeaks’ hackers released thousands of DNC emails, a few of which insulted Bernie Sanders. Vox.com explains it:

“Most of the emails showed routine campaign planning among senior DNC officials. The emails show some evidence of unseemly behavior by Democratic Party officials and at least one case where DNC officials discussed trying to undermine the Sanders. That has reopened a long-running debate about whether the DNC — which is supposed to be neutral during a primary campaign — was too favorable toward Hillary Clinton.”

WikiLeaks has been explicitly pro-Trump so far this election, but I doubt these emails will affect much, seeing how little was even in them.

Some More Outrageous Stuff Trump Did

-Trump threatened to skip the debates later this season because the schedules were “unfair”. He claimed that a debate overlapping with an NFL game was reason enough for him to warrant not showing up.

-Trump’s response to Khizr Khan’s speech was to comment on how Khan’s mother was “not allowed” to speak. I don’t have to mention that this is despicable and racist, but I will anyway.

-Following the DNC hack, Trump “jokingly” told Russia to find Clinton’s emails. Considering that Trump has been endorsed by Putin, this was not met as a joke, and even if it was a joke, it is neither funny nor reassuring.

-Besides Putin, Kim Jong Un also endorsed Trump.

Senate Preview #3

CONNECTICUT:

70-year-old Michael Blumenthal is seeking re-election. His opponent is Dan Carter, a State Representative. The election should be very easy for Blumenthal to win.

Rating: Safe D

FLORIDA:

Finally, a fun race. This election was supposed to be a pure tossup when incumbent Marco Rubio announced that he wouldn’t be seeking re-election. However, Rubio recently announced that he is running, and thus will make the race easier for the Republicans to win. His opponent will be either Alan Grayson, U.S. Representative with many scandals, or Pat Murphy, a more mild-mannered Representative. The race currently leans toward Rubio, but depending on the nominee and the presidential race, that could change.

Rating: Lean R

GEORGIA:

Johnny Isakson should very easily win re-election in Georgia, no matter how close the presidential race is. The Democratic nominee, Jim Barksdale, has no political experience and Isakson is very popular.

Rating: Safe R

This Week In World Elections

Next week is the Sao Toméan presidential election’s second round and the Thai constitutional referendum. I’ll go more into detail on them next week (both are scheduled for August 7th).

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 31: "Vote Your Conscience" (July 24, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 107

The RNC!

From Monday to Thursday last week, the Republican Party gathered in Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio for the 2016 RNC. There were many great successes, and the most important part of it - Trump’s speech - was met well. That is not to say that there were no low points either. First, on Monday, there was a ton of chaos when the chair supposedly didn’t call a vote on the rules the right way, and the floor erupted into madness for many minutes. Ted Cruz, in his speech on Wednesday, refused to endorse Trump and told people to “vote your conscience” and was met with many boos.

Meet Tim Kaine: Clinton’s Vice Presidential Candidate

Much like her nomination, Clinton’s VP choice was anything but a surprise. Tim Kaine, Virginia Senator, was an 80% favorite for the choice on betting markets in the week leading up to the decision, but nonetheless, it’s news! Kaine hails from an important swing state (Virginia) and brings rock-solid liberal credentials and a good relationship with Clinton herself. The one downside is that many Bernie supporters may not view him as progressive enough, and may not vote in November for that reason.

What I said about Tim in May:

“At this point, Kaine is the safest choice. An inoffensive moderate from key swing state Virginia with no dooming background, there’s no glooming negatives. He may be fairly boring and not a great pick to win over disaffected Sanders voters, but he could be a good Bentsen-type pick to balance the ticket without drawing too much attention away from Clinton.”

Polling Outlook

Colorado: Clinton +8

Virginia: Clinton +5

Michigan: Clinton +5

New Hampshire: Clinton +4

Pennsylvania: Clinton +3

North Carolina: Clinton +2

Ohio: Clinton +1

Florida: Even

Iowa: Even

Electoral Vote Count:

294-53-191

Senate Preview #2

ARKANSAS:

Incumbent John Boozman easily wrapped up his party’s nomination. He now opposes Attorney Conner Eldridge. Boozman got 58% of the vote in 2010, and polling shows he may get more this time around.

Rating: Safe R

CALIFORNIA:

Incumbent Barbara Boxer declined to seek re-election, and the jungle primary (in which the top two vote-getters, no matter the party, advance to the general) will feature two Democrats: Kamala Harris, the California Attorney General, and Rep. Loretta Sanchez. Harris is currently favored.

Rating: Guaranteed D, Likely Harris

COLORADO:

Michael Bennet, the incumbent, chose to seek re-election. He faces Darryl Green, El Paso County commissioner. This race could be very close, as Bennet won by under 2% in 2010. However, polling says otherwise.

Rating: Likely D

This Week In World Elections

Sao Tome and Principe: The Sao Tomean presidential election last Sunday ended in a resounding victory for Evaristo Carvalho, former Prime Minister, with him receiving 50% of the vote, meaning that there should’ve been no runoff necessary. Despite that, there will be a runoff between Carvalho and incumbent Manuel Pinto da Costa on August 7th.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 30: "Pence!" (July 17, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 114

The general election is now very close, and in the past three weeks a lot has happened. First,

Meet Mike Pence: Trump’s Vice Presidential Candidate

After my list of 10 possible choices for Trump, he went with Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN), who didn’t cross my mind when making my list. For me, having been out of the loop for weeks, it was a surprising choice, but he was on the very short shortlist, along with Gingrich and Christie, so it’s not like he came out of nowhere. To pretend these choices will significantly alter the results is to lie to one’s self, but out of all the choices, this wasn’t the best. Sure, he may be from the midwest, but he doesn’t bring in establishment support, a demographic group, or very many positives. He’s not even from a swing state, just a state that borders Ohio.

Bullet Points:

-Clinton is not guilty of anything regarding emails

-Sanders endorsed Clinton, finally

-An innumerable amount of people - including Sarah Palin -won’t be at the RNC next week.

-The Republican National Convention starts tomorrow!

Senate Preview #1

ALABAMA:

Richard Shelby, five-term incumbent, is seeking re-election at the age of 82. His main opposition comes from an activist named Ron Crumpton. This race will be uninteresting, Shelby will pull a very, very, large amount of the vote.

Rating: Safe R

ALASKA:

Lisa Murkowski, a two-term incumbent, is seeking re-election. Murkowski made news last cycle (2010) by being defeated in the primary and then coming back to win as an independent. And she may lose in the primary again (the primary is on August 16th). Her most notable challenger is mechanic Bob Lochner. On the Democratic side, the two main candidates are former Seward mayor Edgar Blatchford and former State Rep. Ray Metcalfe. Knowing Alaska, this race could turn close, but for now it seems Murkowski should win handily.

Rating: Safe R

ARIZONA:

The incumbent, John McCain, faces some hurdles in an attempt to get re-re-re-re-re-elected. He faces primary opposition from State Sen. Kelli Ward, and general election opposition from Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. Arizona will be a good opportunity for the Democrats to earn a surprise seat, but it’s not as likely to flip as some other states, so it’s unlikely that it will be the key to the 50th seat.

Rating: Lean R

This Week In World Elections

Sao Tome and Principe: The presidential election’s first round, between five candidates, including incumbent Manuel Pinto da Costa, is today. The run-off, if necessary, will be held on August 7th. Pinto da Costa won last election by 4,000 votes, over Evaristo Carvalho, a former Prime Minister who is also running this year.

What you missed over the past three weeks:

Australia: Coalition earned a slight majority, getting 50.34% of the vote, leading Labor by 8 seats.

Japan: Shinzo Abe’s liberal Democrats kept their majority in the house of councillors. They had 15% of the vote more than their nearest challenger, the Democratic Party.

Mongolia: The Mongolian People’s Party won 65 of the 76 seats to the Grand Hural.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 29: "Brexit" (June 26, 2016)

Dear Readers,

THIS WILL BE THE LAST NEWSLETTER FOR A FEW WEEKS, I APOLOGIZE FOR THE INCONVENIENCE

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 142

TRUMP

Weekly List of Things Republican Elected Officials Are Saying About Their Nominee:

-Rep. Mia Love (R-UT) sees no reason to attend the convention next month.

-Columnist George Will switched parties because of Trump

-Former Bush cabinet members Henry Paulson and Brent Scowcroft are voting for Hillary Clinton

BREXIT!

So, the Brexit did indeed happen (I’ll go into this more later). Trump, naturally, was going to Scotland the next day, so one would imagine he’d be congratulating UKIP and the Brexiteers, right? In his press conference, he only talked about his golf course, not even mentioning Brexit. On his Twitter, he decided to thank Scotland for their leave votes, when, of course, remain swept all the counties in Scotland. Adding this to Trump’s only learning about Brexit in the past few days and still not knowing who Boris Johnson is, it’s clear Trump’s foreign policy is flawless.

Trump Fires Lewandowski

This week, Donald Trump fired his longtime campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Lewandowski was accused of assaulting a Breitbart reporter earlier this year, and his style of campaign managing may not have been very productive, but it’s a shocking move by the Trump team. Lewandowski was immediately hired by CNN, of course, so that shows how much Trump saying “you’re fired” is worth.

CLINTON

House Democrats Hold Sit-In on Gun Control

To add to Senate democrats’ filibuster last week, the house democrats stayed in the building for 24 hours, demanding a bill on gun control. They failed in their efforts, of course, but the publicity can only help their cause. Hillary, of course, has been in support of congressional democrats through their tricky efforts, especially recently. The sit-in didn’t affect any votes, as congress was meant to be closed for most of the time anyway.

Sanders Will Vote for Clinton

Bernie Sanders has made another step toward party unity, telling a reporter he will vote for Clinton. The only steps left are to drop out and endorse Clinton (because in the 2016 election season, pledging your vote isn’t the same as an endorsement!) He maintains he’ll push his platform to the convention, but in the meantime Sanders voters are returning to Clinton, as recent polls indicate.

This Week In World Elections

United Kingdom: The results of Brexit are in, and Leave earned a solid victory. Prime Minister David Cameron has already announced his intent to step down, meaning that Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London and Donald Trump look-alike, has a great chance of becoming the next Prime Minister. Some voters are already regretting their decisions, with interviews with Leave voters who “didn’t think it’d seriously happen” floating around. This referendum is non-binding, and it’s up to the next Prime Minister as to what to do.

Iceland: The Icelandic presidential election is today. The main candidates are:

-author Andri Snær Magnason

-editor/former Prime minister Davíð Oddsson

-historian Guðni Thorlacius Jóhannesson

-entrepreneur Halla Tómasdóttir

-truck driver Sturla Jónsson

Polls show Jóhannesson with a large lead (at least since incumbent Olafur Ragnar Grímsson decided not to run), and results seem to back this up. Jóhanneson has never held public office, but the presidency is a largely ceremonial post (with more power in the prime minister). This election was muddled when president Grímsson (a five-term incumbent!) was implicated in the Panama Papers.

Spain: The election for congress and senate is tomorrow, and the People’s Party retains their lead. Unidos Podemos has safely moved into second place as well.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

Week 28: "Emergency Money" (June 19, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all.

Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 142

TRUMP

First off, let’s show a beautiful display of gratitude from Mr. Trump: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/743852552257626112

That’s right, Trump, tweeted “Thank you, America” with a picture of a Gravis/OAN national poll that showed him losing. Anyway, into the news...

Donald Trump’s Response to Orlando

Following the tragic terror attack/hate crime at a gay nightclub in Orlando, one could imagine the politicians stepping in and showing remorse. Here are some quotes from Mr. Trump’s twitter.

• In response to an article saying the gunman had “cheered 9/11”: “I thought people weren’t celebrating? They were cheering all over, even this savage from Orlando. I was right.”

• “What has happened in Orlando is just the beginning. Our leadership is weak and ineffective. I called it and asked for the ban. Must be tough”

• “American must now get very tough, very smart and very vigilant. We cannot admit people into our country without extraordinary screening.”

• “Thank you to the LGBT community! I will fight for you while Hillary brings in more people that will threaten your freedoms and beliefs.”

• ”...More attacks will follow Orlando”

A little scary and unsympathetic, right? Now, you can accuse me of cherry-picking quotes to advance my point, but that doesn’t change the fact that a presidential nominee actually said all of these things.

George Bush Is Doing His Best

Fearing for the worst for his party, former president George W. Bush (R-TX) has begun to fundraise for congressional Republicans. Trump, surprisingly enough, supported Bush in doing this, but not before throwing a quick insult at Jeb, of course.

Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL): "I think he (Donald Trump) is too bigoted and racist for the Land of Lincoln."

Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), when asked about a potential convention challenge: “I see my role, now that he’s got the plurality [of delegates], he actually won, is pretty much a ceremonial position. But the last thing I am going to do is weigh in and tell delegates what to do.”

Governor Scott Walker (R-WI): “He’s not yet the nominee. Officially that won’t happen until the middle of July, and so for me that’s kind of the time frame. In particular I want to make sure that he renounces what he says, at least in regards to this judge.” Adding on to that, Trump “at least of late has been saying things that run directly at odds with our core beliefs and principles in this country.”

Senator and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY): “...because it's pretty obvious he doesn't know a lot about the issues. You see that in the debates in which he's participated.”

Senator and Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX) will cease talking about Trump for this election - “wish me luck,” he said.

Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD): Doesn’t plan to vote for Trump.

Trump Needed an “Emergency” $100,000

The Trump campaign put out a statement yesterday declaring that they needed an “emergency” 100,000 dollars to continue attacking Hillary Clinton. This is in order to “get their ads on air”. According to them, "Crooked Hillary is about to invade your TV with ads attacking Mr. Trump. But we're preparing to fight back,” which of course is why the “self-funded” billionaire is begging for emergency money.

CLINTON

A True 50 State Strategy

Hillary Clinton’s campaign announced that she will be putting field staff in all fifty states. A Clinton campaign worker, Marlon Marshall, said: “This is something that needs to happen every presidential cycle. It needs to be sustained. And I think if we continue to do that, we will help build the party long-term.” It’s unclear if this staff is to help congressional candidates or if Hillary is indeed preparing for a landslide, which is, of course, always possible. Bernie Sanders supported a 50-state strategy when campaigning, so this could also be an olive branch towards him.

Clinton Super-PAC Releases Attack Ad Titled “Presidential”

It’s quite good, if you ask me. Watch it here: https://youtu.be/kgWJRjA-nIY

The ad attacks Trump’s incompetence, warmongering policies, and “danger.” It’s one of the better ones I’ve seen, and I thought I should point it out.

UPDATED ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP (v2)

http://www.270towin.com/maps/571kW

This Week In World Elections

United Kingdom: The Brexit referendum turned bitter this week, as Labour MP Jo Cox was tragically stabbed by a Britain First activist at a surgery (meeting with constituents). While Leave has taken a recent lead in the polls, this will probably reverse that, if it has any impact at all. If anything, it shows how bitter campaigns can be. Truly tragic.

Spain: The Spanish congressional and Senatorial elections are next Sunday. The ruling People’s Party should retain a plurality fairly easily, with the Spanish Socialist Workers and Unidos Podemos fighting for second place.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!