Week 85: "Election Day" (November 12, 2017)

Dear Readers,

It has been an eventful week. For all past newsletters (and more), make sure to go to the blog at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Election Day!

The polls showed a close race for Virginia Governor between Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie. But the vote on Tuesday was anything but close. Northam won by 9 points and the Democrats almost retook the heavily gerrymandered House of Delegates, which will presumably end either 51-49 for the Republicans or an even 50-50, pending results in certain very close seats. So what? The Democrats already held the Virginia governor’s seat, and failing to take back the state house in a seat Democrats have won in the presidential election for the past three cycles doesn’t sound  impressive, but it is.

First off, being the most high-profile election on Election Day 2017, both sides invested a lot of money in it. Secondly, the polling showed a much, much closer race. And lastly, the margin was much wider than what one would expect from a fairly competitive state like Virginia. This is a very good sign for Democrats on the first Election Day of Donald Trump’s presidency. In addition, prior to the election the House of Delegates was 66-34 for the Republicans, and taking back 15 or 16 seats is an incredibly impressive thing and bodes very well for lower-level elections.

In addition, Democrats picked up the New Jersey Governor’s seat when Phil Murphy defeated Republican Kim Guadagno. However, incumbent Chris Christie’s approval rating was under 20%, so this result was much more expected.

Some other things:

-A Liberian refugee was elected mayor of Helena, Montana

-The first Democratic mayor since 2005 in Manchester, New Hampshire was elected

-Bill de Blasio was re-elected mayor of New York

-A bunch more truly awesome people were elected across the country

-In a special election, the Democrats retook the Washington State House

Alabama

The upcoming special election for Senate in Alabama, pitting ultraconservative Republican judge Roy Moore against Democrat Doug Jones, already much closer than most elections in Alabama, became much more complicated this week. It became known that Moore dated and made sexual advances on teenagers when he was in his thirties. While the stories haven’t been confirmed, and he hasn’t exactly proclaimed guilt (that’s sort of unclear though), they have had a damning effect with many high-profile Republicans calling on him to drop out and polls showing the race as essentially even. Moore has no plans to drop out, and no official alternatives, such as a write-in campaign for Luther Strange, who lost the Republican primary, have been shown yet. That said, this race will become very very interesting and I’m sure I will have much more to say about it in the coming weeks.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to let me know what you think.