Sunday, November 6, 2016

Week 46: "Two Days, That's All We've Got"

Dear Readers,

The election is approaching very rapidly. I’m going to help you make sense of everything.

Days until General Election: 2!

A Stunning Finish
Wow! We’ve nearly done it! We’ve nearly survived until election day! How does it feel? I know you’re all going to miss this campaign when it’s over, right? Right?
The two candidates have very different approaches to the final days. Hillary Clinton is playing it safe and staying in Pennsylvania, while Trump is hopping around the country with no rhyme or reason. Clinton is preparing her Get-Out-The-Vote machine, while Trump is hoping for a miracle. The voters, meanwhile, are just waiting for it all to end.

The biggest news story of last week was FBI Director James Comey’s decision to re-open the Clinton email case. Inevitably, Comey sent out another letter today saying Clinton did nothing wrong. This wasn’t very surprising, just very disappointing. Comey has done enough damage to Clinton already, and this story, I fear, will have low impact. However, it is re-assuring in terms of knowing that Clinton actually did nothing wrong.


Electoral College: 323 to 215
Popular Vote: Clinton +3.7

Senate: 50 to 49 (with 1 too close to call)

REPUBLICANS CONTROL THE HOUSE (No numerical projection, sorry)

Swing States and Key Senate Race Breakdown/Reasoning:

Arizona: Recent polling in Arizona gives Trump a small edge. The reason I’m characterizing this as “Likely Trump” is because the most high-quality surveys both have the race as Trump +5. The Senate race will be easily won by McCain.

Colorado: I’m not yet willing to characterize Colorado as safe for Clinton, since the polling average is around Clinton +3, well within the possible room for error. That being said, Clinton should win by more than 3.

Florida: Early voting reports look good enough for the Democrats that I’ll give Clinton the edge here. Polls are telling a mixed story, but Hispanic turnout is way up and that can only mean good things for Clinton. However, it will be very close in Florida. However, none of this should be an issue for Rubio, who will cruise to victory.

Illinois: The senate race is the only interesting one here. Still, Duckworth has taken multiple double-digit leads recently, and Kirk’s campaign has been bad enough that I’m comfortable calling this one Likely for Duckworth.

Indiana: Again, I’ll only cover the senate race, as Trump will win by around 10 points here. Again, polling is showing a very mixed story in the Hoosier State, but Young has the momentum, and should give the Republicans a victory here.

Iowa: The high-profile Selzer survey gave Trump a 7-point lead here. It’s hard to see him losing Iowa at this point.

Michigan: The last poll showing Trump up in Michigan was taken in August. Clinton has leads of 2 to 7 points in all recent surveys. Likely Clinton victory.

Missouri: The presidential race may be uncompetitive, but Jason Kander is putting up a fight. There is a lack of consensus with the polls, and a lack of reputable polls entirely. I will give Kander the edge for now, but a surprise Republican victory here is plausible and could hand them the Senate.

Nevada: Nevada is a state with notoriously fluky polls, and indeed there is no consensus this year. However, early voting reports are consistently good for Clinton. This may be the closest state of the night, but Clinton is the favorite. In the senate race, Cortez-Masto has gained momentum and favorable poll numbers and should win.

New Hampshire: Clinton has consistently led here, and while some recent polls gave a bit of a scare, this state should go for Clinton. The senate race, however, is very, very close. Both candidates have strong campaigns, high name recognition, and credentials. Polls are close and there are low amounts of undecided voters. Anything could happen.

North Carolina: The “good polls” here have all shown decently large Clinton victory. However, some newer, more questionable, polling firms are showing ties or Trump leads, so I’ll only call this one “Lean Clinton”. The Senate race here is probably going to lead to a Richard Burr victory, but Ross does have some good polls and could ride Clinton’s margins to a close victory.

Ohio: Early voting reports and polls both look good for Trump and Rob Portman here. Barring something unforeseen, they should both win.

Pennsylvania: Clinton and McGinty have both led in all recent polls here, and shouldn’t have trouble winning this state.

Wisconsin: Both the presidential and senate races in Wisconsin are shaping up to be 6-point Democratic wins. Some polls have given Russ Feingold worry recently, but on the whole he should be able to win.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome! If anyone has any specific questions about my predictions, please respond and I’ll tell you!

1 comment:

  1. Hmph. Delete delete delete. This is exactly why Hillary lost. Anyone disagreeing with Democrats was a racist/sexist/Nazi/bigot/Islamophobe/homophobe and needed to be killed.

    And you Leftists call yourselves peaceful loving tolerants. Cognitive Dissonance strikes again