Sunday, September 25, 2016

Week 40: The Greatest Show on Earth (September 25, 2016)

Dear Readers,

The great chaos that is the 2016 election season keeps hurtling at us, and I’ll help you make sense of it all. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at
Days until General Election: 44
Days until 1st Debate: 1

New York Times, Cincinnati Enquirer Endorse Clinton

For the first time in over a hundred years, the Cincinnati Enquirer has endorsed a Democrat. The same paper that published a story asking: “Religion and science: Whose history is right?” in June, the same paper that endorsed Barry Goldwater, has come around to Hillary Clinton. The New York Times, the most read paper in America, also endorsed Clinton this week and published a scathing anti-Trump editorial. (You can read it here, I’d recommend it.) Newspaper endorsement carry a very small amount of weight nowadays, but these are two of the most important ones, and could make a small difference.

Ted Cruz Endorses Trump

The man who got up on stage at the RNC and said “Vote your conscience” to a chorus of boos has finally given in and endorsed Trump. Texan Senator and former 2016 candidate Ted Cruz announced he would be supporting Trump after months of saying the opposite, Cruz described the decision as “agonizing” and wouldn’t tell press whether Trump was qualified to be president, so it’s a very unenthusiastic endorsement, but it will send a signal to some Never-Trump holdouts.

HW Bush Endorses Clinton

In a similar vein, it was announced this week that former president George H.W. Bush will be supporting Hillary. He was fairly close with Bill Clinton in their respective times in office, so this isn’t hugely surprising, but it means that 4 of the 5 living former presidents support Clinton, with the other unknown.

Get Ready for the Flying Circus!

But the most important news of all is that the debates are coming: Tomorrow, Trump and Clinton square off in Long Island. The moderator will be Lester Holt. And the ratings will be - shall we say - YUUUUGE. Notably absent will be Gary Johnson, who fell way under the 15% threshold required to appear on stage. No doubt there will be some protest, but this wasn’t very surprising.
Anyway, on to my predictions - I have no idea what will happen. It is clear that Clinton is much more prepared than Trump is, and Clinton, being more used to this medium, should do better. However, Trump has set high expectations very low, and it's possible that he could get away with a poor performance. But we did see that Trump was strong in the debates in the primaries, and it’s possible that he could rattle Hillary and have a very, very good performance. It will mostly come down to expectations, and, as usual, who ever can get the best soundbite.

Senate Preview #11

Senator Mike Lee, a profound voice in the anti-Trump movement, easily won his party’s nomination and should be able to beat Misty Snow with no difficulty. Trump’s lack of success in Utah has barely affected Lee.

Rating: Safe R


Patrick Leahy is the longest serving active Senator, and he is seeking re-election at the age of 76. His opposition, Scott Milne, will struggle to get 30%, especially given that Leahy is very popular.

Rating: Safe D

Seat Count

This Week In World Elections

Russia: Putin’s party earned only 54% of the vote, but won 343 of 450 seats, well more than those needed for a majority. Only 2 other parties received 10%, and we can safely conclude the elections were very rigged.

Isle of Man: Independents won 21 of the 24 seats in the House of Keys last week. The Liberal Vannin party won an additional 3, and the new Labour party won 773 votes and 0 seats.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!

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