Week 42: "A Party In Distress" (October 10, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Two debates, a leaked tape, and a party in distress. What a week it’s been. Remember, all newsletters (and more) are available at www.electreport.blogspot.com

Days until General Election: 30

The VP Debate

The vice presidential debate on Tuesday featured Who’s-It and What’s-His-Face - sorry, I meant Tim Kaine and Mike Pence. The consensus was that Pence won, and I’m not going to dispute that. Kaine was very aggressive, interrupting Pence constantly, while Pence stayed calm, even if a lot of what he said was completely false. Trump received next to no bump from the debate, of course, because few people actually watched it. There were no memorable moments, so the media quickly moved on to other things.

The 2nd Presidential Debate

Trump and Clinton may have been the two candidates in Sunday’s Town Hall debate, but the real winner was Ken Bone. Joking aside, the CNN snap poll showed Clinton winning by only slightly less than it said she won the first debate, and Trump looked uncomfortable. A reverse of last time, the first 20 minutes seemed to be a train wreck for him, but he seemed more reasonable by the end. While the debate may have been good for Clinton, it’s also a refreshing change in the news cycle for Trump, given that...

Trump’s Todd Akin Moment

In 2012, Claire McCaskill was behind in Senate polls to challenger Todd Akin, until he made a controversial statement about rape and watched his party abandon him and his poll numbers fall. Well, Trump finally had his Todd Akin moment, and it looks as if he will lose ground in the polls just as Akin did.

The moment came when a tape of backstage chatter with Access Hollywood host Billy Bush from 2005 was released. In the tape, Trump brags about committing sexual assault, and then says “when you’re a star, they let you do it.” The actual contents of the tape are vulgar and horrible and I don’t want to write them out here (this article does a much more in-depth job), but the consequences faced were great.

Already, Sen. John McCain (AZ), Rep. Jason Chaffetz (UT), Rep. Joe Heck (NV), Sen. Kelly Ayotte (NH), Sen. John Thune (SD), Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Sen. Cory Gardner (CO), Sen. Rob Portman (OH), Gov. Gary Herbert (UT), and Gov. Bob Bentley (AL), noted for having an extramarital affair with a staffer while in office last year and not resigning, as well as many other GOP officials, have rescinded their endorsements. Speaker Paul Ryan denied Trump’s request to appear with him at a rally, Gov. John Kasich (OH) called on other Republicans to drop their endorsements, and plenty more have offered condemnations without actually de-endorsing him. Whether Republicans are operating only because this statement is terrible, or whether they see Trump collapsing otherwise and found this a good excuse is up to debate, but both are certainly factors. The few polls taken over the weekend see Trump slipping big, and downballot Republicans might need to bail out on Trump if they want to have a chance. Either way, the polling is about to get very ugly for Team Trump and only time will tell how long that lasts.

Weekly Predictions:

I’m going to remain conservative on the impact of the Trump tape for now until we have more data

Electoral Votes: Clinton 342, Trump 196 (http://www.270towin.com/maps/JlznX)

Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48

This Week In World Elections

Georgia: The Georgian Dream Party and United National Movement both got vastly more of the vote than all the other minor parties, with the Georgian Dream getting 49% and the UNM getting 27%. It was very disappointing for all the minor parties, who had hoped to break through but none received more than 6% of the vote.

Morocco: In the Moroccan parliamentary election, the Justice and Development Party, currently ruling, gained 18 seats to maintain their top spot, but the Authenticity and Modernity party doubled their seat count, gaining 55, to become a formidable challenger to the JDP. There was some worry about fraud, according to King Mohammed VI, but it doesn’t seem as if that impacted the election greatly.

Thanks for reading! As usual, comments are welcome!