Week 68: "Erdogan, MOABs, and the Rise of Jean-Luc Melenchon" (April 16, 2017)

Dear Readers,

It has been an incredibly eventful week. For all past newsletters (and more), make sure to go to the blog at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Also be sure to check out my article here: Can Polls Be Trusted?

Looking At Our President’s Twitter

To start, let’s head over to @realDonaldTrump. Oh, how nice, he wished everyone a happy Easter. Then, just 40 minutes later (still 6 in the morning), he went on yet another conspiratorial tirade:

“I did what was an almost an impossible thing to do for a Republican-easily won the Electoral College! Now Tax Returns are brought up again?”

“Someone should look into who paid for the small organized rallies yesterday. The election is over!”

I’m not gonna write much about this, but just a reminder that whenever anyone claims he’s “pivoting” towards sanity, they’re wrong, and he’ll always be this way.

Another Bomb

As if targeting Assad wasn’t enough, Donald Trump decided to drop a 21,000 pound bomb on ISIS this week. However, rather than attacking an ISIS central location, he dropped it on a group in Afghanistan. While this Afghan base has done a lot of damage to civilians, it’s still a different kind of a message to drop a very, very large bomb on a far-off base, that tells us little about Trump’s policy regarding ISIS other than that he is willing to spend a lot of resources and money to fight them.

Democrats Come Close in Deep Red Kansas Seat; Prepare for Georgia Race

This week, a special election for CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s House seat in Southern Kansas was held. Pompeo won his seat by over 30 points, and Trump won the district by a similar margin. However, the Democratic candidate came within seven points, and was leading for a good chunk of the night. This swing was massive and incredibly meaningful, showing Democrats can mobilize voters against Trump. This is incredibly relevant as Jon Ossoff tries to win a special election in suburban Atlanta. He’s polling around 45% in a huge field, and needs 50% to stop a runoff from happening, though it's likely he’d win a potential runoff.

Erdogan Scores Major Victory

A referendum on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s proposed constitutional reforms has come out with a slight vote in favor. “Yes” earned 51.4%, although the campaign against have called for a recount already. These reforms give Erdogan a lot more power, at the expense of the other branches of government. We know Erdogan is power-hungry, and polls were showing a much larger potential victory for “Yes”, but it’s still an important and worrying development.

Melenchon Gains; Race Tightens in France

Meanwhile in France, the two leaders of the race, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, face a threat from 65-year-old Eurosceptic leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon. The polls have tightened considerably recently, with Melenchon within 2% of the other two candidates in some examples. Melenchon has likely passed Francois Fillon to move into third place, and we’ll see if he can make the jump into the top two (which would place him in the runoff) by next Sunday. In a potential runoff, Macron would beat Le Pen, as would Melenchon, and a race between Macron and Melenchon could go either way.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply or comment.

Week 67: "Bannon vs. Kushner"

Dear Readers,

It has been an incredibly eventful week. For all past newsletters (and more), make sure to go to the blog at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Military Action

This week, our president took the first military action of his term in office. He decided, on a whim, that he was incredibly outraged by Bashar al-Assad’s latest actions and bombed a Syrian air base. There’s much debate to be had as to whether this was a sound move and whether the president was justified in his actions, but that doesn’t really matter when we consider the reality behind the situation. Yes, Assad is a horrible leader who deserves to be challenged. But Trump has been generally undisturbed by this, instead casting the Syrian people as villains by not letting them into our country. Now he suddenly gets very angry at Assad and before pursuing any other diplomatic actions uses force. This is never allowable, especially considering just how messy the situation in Syria is right now. Regardless of whether it was the right thing to do, it was done with such haste and such ineffectiveness (the base was in operation just days later) that it’s hard to justify.

Good Riddance

Steve Bannon was finally kicked off the National Security Council this week, representing an unexpected shift in Trump’s attitudes toward Bannon. This is a seen as a ploy by Jared Kushner, who has emerged as a rival to Bannon recently. Bannon’s replacement on the Council was none other than intellectual heavyweight Rick Perry (he even has glasses!) which is disturbing, since I thought we were done with him when he was, you know, indicted. But I suppose Dancing with the Stars can fix everything. Either way, Bannon has less power now and that’s a good thing, though it is telling that events in Syria happened right after Bannon was kicked off, so we’ll see what effect it actually has.

Gorsuch Confirmed

It took a “nuclear option”, but Neil Gorsuch is all ready to swear in as a Supreme Court justice. When the Democrats (stupidly) filibustered the confirmation of Gorsuch, Republicans changed Senate rules so that a simple majority is required to override a filibuster for a Supreme Court confirmation (this rule already existed for other confirmations). I don’t believe this is a good or bad change, but it is definitely what Democrats deserved for delaying the confirmation process with a political ploy (since it was losing fight no matter what), especially since Gorsuch is an immensely qualified justice. Either way, we have a ninth justice again, which is a positive development regardless of your politics.

“Work It Out”

As I mentioned earlier, Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner have gotten in a huge feud recently. Trump has refused to take a side, but demanded they work it out and stop publicly feuding. Both men are very close to Trump’s ear, and have been throughout, and while Bannon is more wicked and dystopian, he’s also much more intelligent. So opponents of the president will likely be rooting hard for Kushner (or for the feud to continue and the ship to sink completely) while supporters may be torn or inclined to prefer Bannon. It’s a meaningful feud, either way, since we know Trump listens a lot to those close to him.

Overseas

The French election is just two weeks away, and some serious debates are starting. At the second national debate, an unlikely star emerged - Philippe Poutou. A mechanic running on a far-left ticket, he insulted every major candidate on the stage and positioned himself as an outsider, and it paid off. He “jumped” from 0.5% to as much as 3%, and, more importantly, got some serious news coverage. Meanwhile, Francois Fillon, once seen as a favorite to reach the runoff, is now in serious danger of slipping to fourth place following numerous scandals. Leftist candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon has surged recently and has a chance of overtaking Fillon, although it will now almost definitely be Macron and Le Pen in the second round.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply or comment or whatever you kids do nowadays.

Week 66: "Paul Ryan Being Humiliated" (March 26, 2017)

Dear Readers,

It has been an eventful week. For all past newsletters (and more), make sure to go to the blog at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

So Long, RyanCare

Paul Ryan’s complicated scheme to give tax breaks to the rich was pulled by Republicans before Congress could even vote on it. The healthcare bill was destined to fail, with the GOP having so many defectors that their 44-seat majority in the House was not nearly enough. Trump himself gave the word to pull the bill, and Paul Ryan’s pet project came to an early end, with most of the failure cast on to him alone. Which, of course, isn’t entirely fair, but I’m not going to complain about Paul Ryan being humiliated.

Farewell, Boris

Борис Александрович Эпштейн (Boris Alexandrovich Epshteyn) was a White House advisor until this week. None of us knew him, but he did write Trump’s controversial Holocaust remembrance day statement. Epshteyn was a friend of Eric Trump’s and he resigned this week. The optics are bad, though. A wealthy Russian literally named Boris has to resign amidst constant questions involving Russia? It may just be a coincidence, but come on.

Wiretap Scandal Continues

Devin Nunes (R-CA), ranking Republican on the House Intelligence committee, has created an even more sketchy condition regarding the wiretap scandal. He gave the results of a preliminary investigation straight to the President (who proceeded to tweet about it), before even telling his Democratic counterpart on the committee, Adam Schiff. He issued an apology, but his mistake made headlines and he’s been acting pretty sketchy ever since.

Gorsuch’s Hearings Begin

Judge Neil Gorsuch has played it very safe during his confirmation hearings, pledging to remain nonpartisan and claiming he will rule outside of political opinions. While it’s not fooling anyone, he’s saying what he’s supposed to be saying, and should be confirmed without any problems, unless the Democrats find a way to get a filibuster. Yes, his seat is stolen, but Gorsuch is well-qualified and we’re not going to get anyone better. Don’t bother filibustering, I say.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply or comment.

Week 65: A National Embarrassment

Dear Readers,

The election may have been four months ago, but there’s still a ton of political news. Reminder that newsletters and more are always available at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Trump Meets Merkel

Angela Merkel offered Trump a handshake, and Trump awkwardly stared off into the distance. Though, since we all remember what happened last time Trump gave a handshake to a world leader, it might have been for the better. Regardless, it was far from the worst thing about this meeting. When Merkel mentioned refugees, Trump mentioned the old adage “immigration is a privilege, not a right,” something I’m sure Trump’s mother Màiri Anna NicLeòid, who arrived to America with only $50, would’ve loved to hear. Then he “congratulated” Germany on “ripping off” America in trade deals, a bizarre diplomatic strategy that proves Trump doesn’t know squat about diplomacy.

Trump Embraces St. Patrick’s Day with a Nigerian Poem

Speaking of knowing squat about diplomacy, Trump’s response to Saint Patrick’s Day was far from ideal, and his colleagues didn’t do much better. Vice President Mike Pence started his address to Irish PM Enda Kenny by saying “top of the morning,” a stereotype of Irish people created by Americans. Then Kenny met with Trump, who shared a proverb: “Always remember to forget the friends that proved untrue, but never forget to remember those that have stuck by you.” Not only is it not a well-known Irish proverb, it may come from a poem by Nigerian poet Albashir Adam Alhassan, who Trump’s border agents probably wouldn’t let into the country.

Then, Irish-American Paul Ryan said “We went from a president who plays a lot of golf to a president who owns a lot of golf courses. That is about the closest thing you can get to royalty in Ireland.” Keep in mind that golf was invented in Scotland, and the Irish are generally not fans of “royalty”.

The New Health Care Bill: One Train Wreck After Another

Speaking of Paul Ryan screwing up, the prospects for Ryan’s healthcare bill aren’t looking any better. The bill has made enemies from every side of the aisle, and won’t be able to pass the Senate. The bill is a thinly-veiled ploy to give huge tax breaks to the rich, and I, for one, am thrilled that it’s being taken to the trash. Ryan can’t get either the far right or the moderate right on his side, and the disastrous bill may not even pass the house. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Trump’s Shiny New Budget

Speaking of tax breaks to the rich, Trump introduced a despicable budget this week. Among other things, it will cut funding from community development block grants, which fund, among other things, Meals on Wheels, and it’ll turn $54 billion from domestic to military budget. There are very few good things to say about this budget, so here are some bad things:

-It will cut 16% across the board from Health and Human Services

-It will defund the Appalachian Regional Commission

-It will kill the Legal Service Corporation, which helps defend low-income Americans

Kellyanne Conway’s Husband to Receive DOJ Appointment

Speaking of injustice, George Conway, husband of a certain Kellyanne, is about to be appointed to head the Civil Department of the Department of Justice. While Conway is an accomplished lawyer who has argued in front of the Supreme Court, this appointment reeks of nepotism and looks very bad for the President.

Rex Tillerson’s Adventures

Speaking of making the president look bad, Rex Tillerson had a good visit to South Korea. He claimed he was too tired to attend a state meeting, then vehemently denied it and claimed he wasn’t invited. That would be confirmable if Tillerson let any journalists travel with him. Actually, he let one conservative journalist from a tiny paper along, and that journalist is working on a longer piece, and so it’s unlikely we’ll learn what the real deal here is.

Dutch Election Recap

Last week, I talked about the Dutch election. The results were about as expected, with the centrist VVD losing seats. The PvdA, the other members of the current coalition, lost an astounding 29 seats, and Geert Wilders’ Eurosceptic PVV gained 5 seats to become the second biggest party. In the end, thirteen parties won seats, and at least four will be needed to form a coalition. Rutte (the leader of VVD) should be able to easily form a coalition, and the impact is certainly greater for the PvdA than the VVD, but Rutte should take this election as a warning of what may happen in the future.

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply or comment.

Week 64: "This is for Preet Bharara!"

Dear Readers,

The election may have been four months ago, but there’s still a ton of political news. Reminder that newsletters and more are always available at http://www.electreport.blogspot.com

Goodbye, Preet

Longtime US Attorney (and Obama appointee) Preet Bharara was fired by Donald Trump this week, after being told a few months ago that he wasn’t going to be. Bharara is notable for “draining the swamp”, as our president would say, taking on corruption on both sides of the aisle. He is most famous for conducting the trials against New York state legislators Sheldon Silver and Dean Skelos, who were both forced to resign because of their corruption, as well as leading investigations of corruption against Governor Cuomo. Preet’s list of trials is endless, but it’s safe to say that everyone will be missing him. He’s also a huge fan of Bruce Springsteen, and the feeling seems to be mutual.

Steve King is a Terrible Person, Part 2,000,000

Noted Iowa caucus kingmaker and Republican U.S. Rep. Steve King, who is also well known for controversial statements on race, is back at it this week with a fantastically awful statement: “Wilders [a candidate in the Dutch election, which I’ll get to later] understands that culture and demographics are our destiny. We can't restore our civilization with somebody else's babies.” This was paired with a retweet from a xenophobic right-wing account, “Voice of Europe.”

I won’t bother with the left-wing response, but here’s the response from hawkish right-winger Bill Kristol, "Is it worth making the obvious point that what American history has been about is 'restoring' ourselves with 'somebody else's babies?'"

The Jobs Report - Obama’s Last Victory, Attributed to Trump

The unemployment rate dropped from 4.8% to 4.7%, with 235,000 new jobs added, much more than expected (though 40k less than in January). Trump was quick to take victory, even though he had no right to. This is still the Obama economy, and Trump has yet to add any remotely significant economic policies. Notably, the Fed seem to be planning to increase the interest rate back up to 1%, the highest it’s been since the recession.

Long-Distance Travel

In an exposing piece from Politico about the Trump presidency, we’ve begun to learn some disturbing things about Trump’s residence in the White House. “Trump ventures out mostly when he trusts the venue—a military base or a political rally. He complains about having to walk great distances inside the White House to attend meetings. He eats steaks well-done with ketchup. He munches on Lay’s.” Hmmm... a bad diet and desire to not walk around very much? The president doesn’t seem to be the healthiest guy in the world right about now, and some of this information is a little bit worrying.

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands

The current polls for the Dutch parliamentary election, which is this Wednesday, shows Mark Rutte’s center-right VVD (currently leading the government), neck and neck with Geert Wilders’ far-right, nationalist PVV. The D66, a pro-democracy progressive party, and the CDA, a centrist Christian party, should also get a fair amount of seats. This chaotic election could see over a dozen parties win seats, and the coalition-forming period could be chaotic and could conceivably lead to another victory for the anti-EU right, with Wilders having a shot at becoming Prime Minister. We’ll see what happens...

Thanks for reading! Feel free to reply, comment, whatever.