Week 5: "A Canadian Among Us" (January 10, 2016)

Dear Readers,

Much has happened this week in the (hectic) election season. I’ll help you make sense of all the news.

Countdowns:

Days until Iowa Caucuses: 22

Days until New Hampshire Primaries: 30
Days until General Election: 302

REPUBLICANS

Canadian Controversy

Recently, Donald Trump took to a curious detail on Ted Cruz: he wasn’t born in America, but instead Calgary. That’s right: ultra-American ultra-right wing Cruz was born in Canada. Now, what impact this has is potentially limiting - his mother was an American citizen, meaning he is still eligible for the presidency. Regardless, it’s just another way for Trump to get his name in the news and attempt to cut his closest rival’s support.

Rubio - Establishment Hero?

Early on, Jeb! Bush was the establishment favorite. He earned a flurry of endorsements and donations, and appeared a lock. However, the exclamation point drove his campaign to the low single digits and the establishment has tried to find a new candidate to rally around. Indeed, they decided on Marco Rubio. The Floridian senator is nearing Jeb’s endorsement totals, and unlike Jeb, he may still have a chance to defeat the Big Bad Wolf Donald Trump.

And Some People Just Gave Up

Mike Huckabee was never the most serious of candidates. But recently, he’s seemed to just stop caring. In fact, he failed to file for the March 12th D.C. primary, and he’s openly said that he’ll drop out if he doesn’t pull a serious surprise in Iowa. Similarly, Rick Santorum has been unable to file delegate slates in most states, and from the beginning bad punchline/Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore hasn’t even campaigned at all.

DEMOCRATS

Meet Rocky

If you look closely at your primary ballots you may be surprised to see an unfamiliar name on your ballot: Rocky de la Fuente. The San Diego-based businessman has filed for a surprisingly high amount of ballots, and he even got 10,000 (!) signatures to be featured on the North Carolina ballot. Rocky calls himself a centrist Democrat who is running out of outrage against Trump. He prides his Hispanic heritage and is bilingual, running a bilingual campaign.

Bernie in Iowa

Bernie Sanders’ campaign had better be satisfied with the latest poll results from Iowa - he was just 3% back of Hillary, within the margin of error. Add this to a growing lead in New Hampshire, and America may soon truly “Feel the Bern.”

Upcoming Events:

State of the Union Address: Tuesday, January 12

Republican debate on Fox Business Network: Thursday, January 14

Democratic debate on CNN: Saturday, January 17

A Look Back

At this point in 2008: John McCain was at 17% in New Hampshire. He wound up winning with 37%. Nationally Rudy Giuliani was leading Mike Huckabee by 4%. Eventual nominee McCain was in 5th.

At this point in 2012: Newt Gingrich was leading nationally and in Iowa. Eventual Iowa winner Rick Santorum had 5%.

Odds:

Sen. Marco Rubio - 36%

Sen. Ted Cruz - 32%

Mr. Donald Trump - 24%

All Others - <2%

Sec. Hillary Clinton - 85%

Sen. Bernie Sanders - 14%

Gov. Martin O’Malley - a very sad 1%

Thanks for reading! I’m really going to try to get exact poll numbers in here, I just don’t know how to format it. Any suggestions for that, or for anything, are very welcome!